This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research.
Lock in for a Week 5 capper with a big Raiders vs. Packers prediction, plus the latest betting insights and DFS picks from FanDuel.
Week 5 concludes with a Monday night matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Las Vegas Raiders. Per the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the host Raiders come into this one as 2.5-point favorites, and the total is set at 46.5 points.
Packers vs. Raiders Best Bets
Over 46.5 Points
I think we’ll see a good amount of points because both of these defenses have been really bad this year.
According to numberFire’s schedule-adjusted metrics, the Raiders own the NFL’s fourth-worst defense, while the Packers are only one spot better. Each defense ranks in the bottom 10 against both the run and the pass. It’s not like either offense has been all that great, but I think the offenses perform well tonight in friendly matchups.
Three of Vegas’ four games have hit the over, and it helps that some of the key offensive pieces who are dealing with injury issues — Jimmy Garoppolo, Davante Adams, and Aaron Jones — are all expected to play. Green Bay’s last game was Thursday in Week 4, so they’re coming into this one with extra rest, something that should be big for the health of Jones and Christian Watson, two explosive playmakers.
Packers vs. Raiders Prop Bets
Aaron Jones Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
Given the extra rest and soft matchup, Jones could fly past this rushing prop bet.
The Raiders have permitted 110.5 rushing yards per game to running backs, so they aren’t likely to offer a ton of resistance tonight versus Jones. We haven’t yet seen a full game of Jones this year as he exited early in Week 1 and played only 35% of the snaps in his return in Week 4. Tonight could be his coming out party for 2023. Jones averaged 0.43 rushing yards over expected per carry in 2022 — the ninth-best mark among backs with at least 200 attempts — and is capable of thrashing Vegas’ run D.
numberFire’s model projects Jones to record 60.0 rushing yards on 12.0 carries.
I also like the over on Jones’ rush attempts as the line is set at 10.5.
Jimmy Garoppolo Over 3.5 Rushing Yards
Obviously, Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t much of a runner — there’s a reason his rushing yards prop is where it is. With that said, I think he can run for at least four yards tonight.
Through three games, Jimmy G has 19 total rushing yards, going over 3.5 yards in two of the outings.
The Packers’ defense is giving up 30.0 rushing yards per game to QBs, and while matchups with Justin Fields and Desmond Ridder have a lot to do with that, Green Bay allowed 10 rushing yards to Jared Goff — who has averaged 4.6 rushing yards per game over his career — last time out.
numberFire projects Garoppolo for 13.2 rushing yards.
Raiders vs. Packers DFS plays
Jordan Love ($16,000) — Jordan Love has been a quality fantasy producer this season, averaging 22.0 FanDuel points per game. He’s run for at least 23 yards in two games and has a pair of rushing touchdowns. He should be able to have plenty of success against a blah Raiders defense.
Josh Jacobs ($14,500) — If you want to avoid using a signal-caller at MVP, I like the idea of turning to either running back. I already laid out why I’m into Jones, so let’s hit on Josh Jacobs. Jacobs has played at least 70% of the snaps in every game, and he’s racked up at least 22 total opportunities (carries plus targets) in all but one game. He’s a workhorse, and with Green Bay giving up the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs (25.8), Jacobs could be the night’s high scorer.
Davante Adams ($14,000) — Adams leads all wideouts in air yards share (51.5%) and has a whopping 33 targets over the last two games. Jaire Alexander is expected to play, which makes this a tough spot for Adams, but Adams’ ability and usage gives him big-time upside in every game.
Christian Watson ($12,000) — In single-game DFS, I want upside, and Watson has that. He averaged 14.4 yards per touch as a rookie and showed big-play chops. Due to injury, we haven’t seen much of him with Love, and that could keep the masses away tonight. I hope it does because Watson is capable of delivering the goods versus the Vegas pass D.
Daniel Carlson ($9,000) and Anders Carlson ($8,500) — The brothers make some sense in an indoor game with a decently high total (46.5). Daniel hasn’t made more than one field goal in a game yet this year, but he also hasn’t missed a kick in 2023. In 2022, he was 11 of 13 from 50-plus. Anders is also perfect on kicks this campaign, including going 2 for 2 from 50-plus.
Luke Musgrave ($8,000) — Musgrave has logged a snap rate of at least 75% in all three of his full games, and he’s amassed at least 49 yards in two of those three outings. He wasn’t listed on the final injury report after having to exit early last week and makes sense as a salary-saver.
Michael Mayer ($7,000) — Mayer has been very quiet in the box score thus far, but I don’t hate the idea of throwing a dart at him tonight. He’s getting a decent amount of snaps, playing between 40% and 51% of the plays each game. An early second-round pick last spring, Mayer has the talent to make some splash plays.
— Austan Kas
Packers vs. Raiders Prediction
The numberFire projections model gives the Raiders a 55.% chance of victory against Green Bay.
A spread of 2.5 points and a total of 45.5 implies a final score of approximately 24-21.5.
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