This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research
Lock in for NFL Week 4 with a big Lions vs. Packers prediction, plus the latest prop bets and insights from our friends at FanDuel.
Player prop bets can be useful in a variety of ways — from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we’re going to focus on the former.
Utilizing numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props that look appealing as Monday Night Football heads to Raymond James Stadium, and stay tuned for a big Packers vs. Lions prediction.
Please note that betting lines and numberFire’s game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Any Time Touchdown (+145)
A classic NFC North rivalry starts Week 4 with the Detroit Lions visiting the Green Bay Packers.
This game features a tight 1.5-point spread in favor of the road Lions, and the clash has a modest 45.5-point total. Let’s jump right in with Amon-Ra St. Brown to score a touchdown this week.
ARSB is simply an elite wide receiver and comes in with the stats to back it up. He’s rocking a 28.9% target share, 30.8% air yards share, 8.3 average depth of target (aDOT), and 57.1% red zone target share. All of those are tops on the Lions outside of the aDOT, making him the clear number-one option in their passing offense.
He does all of that while playing on 87.3% of the snaps and running a route on 89.6% of dropbacks, which are both the highest on the team — surprise, surprise.
This has led to 27 targets, 21 receptions, 275 yards, and a single touchdown through the first three weeks. That touchdown came in Week 1, and he hasn’t been back in the end zone since.
While the Packers have allowed just two touchdowns to wide receivers this season, they haven’t been tested through the air too much given their matchups against the Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons, and New Orleans Saints.
The Lions have a 23.50 implied team total this week — slightly more than three touchdowns. If Detroit is set to score multiple touchdowns, ARSB is sure to be in the mix when they get to the scoring area thanks to his team-high 57.1% red zone target share.
Jared Goff Under 253.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Next up, we’ll take a look at under 253.5 passing yards for the Lions’ quarterback, Jared Goff.
Goff is off to a solid start this season, but this doesn’t set up to be a favorable matchup for him.
As mentioned above, the Packers’ defense hasn’t really been tested too much in the passing game and has allowed just 657 passing yards — or 219 yards per game — this season. Take that with a slight grain of salt.
However, since arriving in Detroit in 2021, Goff’s home-road splits are rather noticeable and don’t paint a good picture for this week. In 2022, Goff averaged 274.7 passing yards per game at home and just 245.8 yards on the road. In 2021, it was 237.5 yards per game at home and 224.2 yards on the road.
The Packers have also had his number — holding him to an average of 180.5 yards per game in 2022 and 242.0 yards per game in 2021. This simply hasn’t been an easy matchup for Goff.
That will likely continue this week since the Packers’ defense comes in with 35 quarterback pressures through three games, which is the fifth-most in the league. If Goff doesn’t have much time to get the ball out, he probably won’t be racking up a ton of yards.
When it comes to the Lions’ offense overall, they come in with a 53.54% pass-play percentage, which is 23rd in the league. They aren’t throwing the ball at a high rate and continue to trust their running game each week.
That running game might be put on display considering that Lions head coach Dan Campbell was optimistic about running back David Montgomery returning to the lineup this week. The Packers’ defense has allowed 300 total rushing yards to opposing running backs thus far, which is the 11th-most in the league.
When we combine all of this, the easiest path to take for the Lions’ offense might be via the rushing game, which takes chances away from Goff to pile up the yards. Give me under 253.5 passing yards this week.
Romeo Doubs Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Packers’ offense could look a bit different this week, and it leads me to under 39.5 receiving yards for Romeo Doubs.
The big news coming into this week is that the Packers are expected to get two offensive playmakers back on the field.
The first is running back Aaron Jones, who missed the last two games due to a hamstring injury he suffered in Week 1. The second is wide receiver Christian Watson, who has yet to play this season due to a hamstring injury.
While Doubs comes in with a team-high 21.1% target share this season, that doesn’t tell the whole story. The injuries have led to an increased role this year, so let’s look back to last season.
In 2022, Doubs had a 15.7% target share, Watson had a 15.2% target share, and Jones had a 13.4% target share. Sure, Doubs still led this group, but it wasn’t as if he was leaps and bounds ahead of the other two. Doubs’ role might be secure, but it’s not massive by any stretch.
For the Lions’ defense, they’ve been super solid against wide receivers early on, surrendering only 375 total receiving yards, which is the sixth-fewest in the league.
Taking a non-stats view of things, it would make sense for the Packers and Jordan Love to focus on getting Watson and Jones fully worked into the offense. This should lead to less involvement for Doubs and help this bet to cash.
— Tom Vecchio
Packers vs. Lions Prediction: NFL Week 4
The numberFire projection model lists a win probability modestly in the Lions’ favor on the road against the Packers.
A spread of 1.5 points and an over/under of 45.5 total points implies a final score of approximately 23.5-22.
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