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Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5: Are Oddsmakers Backing Denver to Clinch History?

Last Updated: July 1, 2023

This article originally appeared at FanDuel.

Get ready for Game 5 of the NBA Finals with a big Nuggets vs. Heat prediction, plus the latest odds and betting insights from our friends at FanDuel.

The 2023 NBA Finals continue on Monday, June 12 as the Miami Heat hit the road to meet the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena. The action begins at 8:30 p.m. ET.

The Nuggets have a chance to win the NBA Finals after taking the 3-1 series lead with Game 4’s 109-95 victory over the Heat. Denver’s supporting cast stepped up this time as Aaron Gordon dropped a game-high 27 points on 73.3% shooting, while Bruce Brown contributed with a 21-point effort in 30 minutes off the bench.

Let’s get set for Game 5 in the Mile High City with our big Heat vs. Nuggets prediction, plus the latest odds and betting insights from our friends at FanDuel.

NBA Finals Game 5: Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat

  • Series: DEN leads 3-1
  • Date: Monday, June 12, 2023
  • Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado
  • US TV coverage: ABC
  • Streaming: ESPN+
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Heat vs. Nuggets Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds, and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: MIA: (+330) | DEN: (-420)
  • Spread: MIA: +9.5 (-110) | DEN: -9.5 (-110)
  • Total: 208 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

The Nuggets enter this contest as clear home favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook’s odds. This 8:30 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 208 points with both sides available at -110 odds.

Nuggets vs. Heat Prediction & Pick

The longer this series goes, the harder it is to have faith in the Heat. The Nuggets have smothered them defensively, resulting in the Heat scoring fewer than 100 in three of the four matchups thus far. It doesn’t help that Miami hasn’t made good decisions with the ball, proven by Erik Spoelstra’s team only shooting 32.0% from the three-point line while turning the ball over 15 times in Game 4.

The series now returns to Denver where the Nuggets are 9-1 SU in the playoffs and 43-8 SU overall this season. Yes, the Heat did win at Ball Arena in Game 2, but the victory only came by three points while also seeing Miami trailing by eight heading into the fourth quarter.

While the Heat should be proud of their run, the Nuggets have all the tools to close things out. Even when Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray have relatively quiet performances, players like Gordon, Brown, and Michael Porter Jr. can step up. A deep lineup like that has given Miami issues all series and I don’t see that changing.

Look for Jokić and Co. to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy this Monday night.


Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Best Bet: NBA Finals Game 5

The Nuggets likely wouldn’t be up 3-1 had it not been for Jamal Murray’s impressive playmaking. The talented Canadian guard is averaging 10.5 APG in the NBA Finals, finishing with no fewer than 10 helpers in each contest. In other words, I don’t see Murray having any issues hitting the Over on his 8.5-assist total in Game 5.

As long as his Denver teammates continue shooting the ball accurately, Murray will keep racking up assists with ease.

HEAT vs. NUGGETS BEST BET: Jamal Murray OVER 8.5 assists (-111)

DEN vs. MIA Betting Trends

  • Miami is 1-9 straight up (SU) in its last 10 games against Denver.
  • Denver is 11-1 SU In its last 12 home games.
  • Miami is 3-8 against the spread (ATS) in its last 11 games against the Western Conference.
  • Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against the Southwest Division.
  • The total has hit the Under in seven of Miami’s last eight games.
  • The total has hit the Over in five of Denver’s last six home games against Miami.

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