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Nuggets vs. Heat Game 4: Do Betters Still Believe in Miami?

Last Updated: July 1, 2023

This article originally appeared at FanDuel.

Get set for NBA Finals Game 4 with a Heat vs. Nuggets prediction, plus the latest odds and betting insights from our friends at FanDuel.

The 2023 NBA Finals continue on June 9 as the Miami Heat host the Denver Nuggets at the Kaseya Center. The action begins at 8:30 p.m. ET.

As the series shifted to South Beach, the Nuggets regained control of the series with a 109-94 victory on Wednesday in Game 3. There was just no stopping the dynamic duo of Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray as each man recorded a triple-double while combining for 66 points, 31 rebounds, and 20 assists.

With a series deadlock set to be broken, get set for Game 4 with our big Nuggets vs. Heat prediction, plus the latest odds and betting insights from our friends at FanDuel.

Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets: NBA Finals Game 4

  • Series: DEN leads 2-1
  • Date: Friday, June 9, 2023
  • Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida
  • US TV coverage: ABC
  • Streaming: ESPN+
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Nuggets vs. Heat Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds, and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: DEN: (-152) | MIA: (+128)
  • Spread: DEN: -3.5 (-108) | MIA: +3.5 (-112)
  • Total: 210.5 — Over: (-112) | Under: (-108)

The Nuggets enter this contest as slight road favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook’s odds. This 8 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 210.5 points with the Over being favored at -112 odds.

Nuggets vs. Heat Prediction & Pick: Game 4

The series has gone back and forth thus far, but momentum is on the Nuggets’ side following their 15-point victory in Game 2. The Heat just couldn’t get anything going, scoring just 94 points on 37.0% shooting from the floor with a 31.4% success rate from the three-point line, never leading by more than five points.

Miami also failed to capitalize on the opposition’s mistakes, only scoring eight points off of Denver’s 14 turnovers. On the flip side, the Nuggets turned the Heat’s four turnovers into 17 points.

Having faith in the Heat is tough when they haven’t found any answer to the Jokić-Murray combination. Both men are having their way with Miami’s defense, scoring, rebounding, and playmaking as they please. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have been a solid pairing for the Heat, but they haven’t come close to matching Jokić and Murray’s offensive output.

Furthermore, the Nuggets thrive playing in Miami, winning each of their last five trips to Kaseya Center by an average of 11.8 points. In other words, until the Heat can shut down Denver’s top stars, the Nuggets will continue to find success.


Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Best Bet

With how dominant they’ve been in Miami, I’m taking the Nuggets to cover the 3.5-point spread as the best bet. Not only are they 4-1 ATS in their past five games, but also 8-1 ATS in their previous nine against the Heat. Miami, on the other hand, has failed to cover in five straight homing outings against Denver while also going 1-5 ATS in its last six meetings with the Northwest Division.

Outscoring the Heat by an average of 7.7 points per game to begin this series, the Nuggets won’t have any issues winning by four-plus points.

GAME 4 HEAT vs. NUGGETS BEST BET: Nuggets -3.5 (-108)

MIA vs. DEN Betting Trends

  • Denver is 8-1 straight up (SU) in its last nine games against Miami.
  • Miami is 1-5 SU in its last six games played in June.
  • Denver is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games.
  • Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games against Denver.
  • The total has hit the Under in six of Denver’s last nine games.
  • The total has hit the Under in four of Miami’s last five home games.

— Devon Platana

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