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Heat vs. Nuggets Game 3: Are Bettors Backing a Big Series Shift?

Last Updated: July 1, 2023

This article originally appeared at FanDuel.

Lock in for NBA Finals Game 3 with a Nuggets vs. Heat prediction, plus the latest odds and betting insights from our friends at FanDuel.

The 2023 NBA Finals continue on Wednesday, June 7 as the Denver Nuggets take on the Miami Heat at the Kaseya Center. The action will go down in south Florida at 8:30 p.m. ET.

A fourth-quarter flurry by the Heat helped them come back from an early deficit to earn a 111-108 victory over the Nuggets in Game 2 on Sunday night. Miami shot an impressive 11-of-16 in the final frame as Jimmy Butler bounced back with 21 points, nine assists, and four rebounds in a great showing.

With a series deadlock set to be broken, get set for Game 3 with our big Heat vs. Nuggets prediction, plus the latest odds and betting insights from our friends at FanDuel.

NBA Finals 2023: Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat

  • Series: Tied 1-1
  • Date: Wednesday, June 7, 2023
  • Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida
  • US TV coverage: ABC
  • Streaming: ESPN+
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Heat vs. Heat Odds & Spread: Game 3

All NBA betting lines, odds, and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: DEN: (-136) | MIA: (+116)
  • Spread: DEN: -2.5 (-108) | MIA: +2.5 (-112)
  • Total: 215 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

The Nuggets enter this contest as slight road favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook’s odds. This 8:30 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 215 points with both sides available at -110 odds.

DEN vs. MIA Betting Trends

  • Denver is 7-1 straight up in its last eight games against Miami.
  • The Heat are 12-6 straight up in their last 18 games overall.
  • The Nuggets are 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games in June.
  • Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.
  • The total has hit the over in six of Denver’s last nine away games.
  • The total has hit the over in six of Miami’s last seven games against Denver.

Game 3 Heat vs. Nuggets Prediction & Pick

The Heat found themselves down by eight points heading into the fourth quarter, but proved to those in attendance and those viewing it at home why they are in the NBA Finals. Their fighting mentality as well as their depth was on full display. Five different Miami players tallied at least 10 points in Game 2.

Denver saw little production outside of Nikola Jokić (41 points) and Jamal Murray (10 assists), which is something to monitor moving forward. The Nuggets cannot keep winning game if only their stars show up. Keep in mind they also allowed Miami to shoot 48.6% from beyond the arc on Sunday night.

That subpar defense could cost the Nuggets in a crucial Game 3 showdown. Miami is shooting 39.1% from downtown in the playoffs and roster six players draining at least 36.0% of their three-point attempts at home. Fade a Nuggets team that is 1-5 against the spread in its last six games in June.


Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Best Bet: Game 3

Speaking of sinking shots from long range, Gabe Vincent has been on fire so far in this series. The Miami sharpshooter is 9-of-16 from distance and has made at least four three-pointers in each of the first two games. He is regularly taking advantage whenever he’s defended by Denver’s guards.

Overall, Vincent has knocked down at least three 3-pointers in five of his last eight games played. There’s no reason to believe he will see additional attention in Game 3 given that would open up the opportunity for Bam Adebayo or Jimmy Butler to take over completely. Trust Vincent to keep shining.

HEAT vs. NUGGETS BEST BET: Gabe Vincent Over 2.5 Made Threes (-106)

— Larry Rupp 

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