This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research.
Get set for Week 8 with an expert overview of top player prop betting picks — plus a big Buccaneers vs. Bills prediction — from our friends at FanDuel.
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways — from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we’re going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines at FanDuel Sportsbook and numberFire’s game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Week 8 NFL Betting Picks: Bucs vs. Bills
Rachaad White Any Time Touchdown (+170)
An 8.5-point spread in favor of the home Bills and a modest 42.5-point over/under is where things start this week and there are a few player props to consider.
We’ll start with Rachaad White any time touchdown (+170) with his large offensive role and solid matchup.
When it comes to the Bills’ defense, they are struggling a bit more than some may realize. So far this season, they’ve allowed the seventh-most (700) rushing yards to running backs this season, and the sixth-most (303) receiving yards to running backs.
Their reputation as a good defense seems to precede them but in reality, this is a pretty juicy spot for some production.
For White, he comes in with a 66% rushing share, 73% red zone rushing share, 11.7% target share, 11.5% red zone target share, while playing on 77.9% of the snaps, and running a route on 71.4% of dropbacks. These are strong metrics for White, yet he has just a single touchdown this season.
Between the matchup and the role, White is in a good matchup to find his way into the endzone.
James Cook Under 51.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
The Buccaneers have a solid run defense and this sets up to be a difficult matchup for James Cook.
Under 51.5 rushing yards is the spot I’m going to this week, and there’s plenty to break down.
From the start, the Buccaneers have allowed a total of 485 rushing yards to running backs this season, which is the 11th fewest in the league. That’s good for 80.8 rushing yards per game, which seems to put Cook in a good spot, but we need to dive deeper.
In Week 3 against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Bucs allowed 173 rushing yards to the Eagles’ running backs. That’s 35% of the rushing yards allowed to running backs from one game, which skews the sample size a bit.
In the other five games this season, the Buccaneers allowed just two running backs — Tyler Allgeier (59) and Alvin Kamara (51) — to rush for over 50 yards this season.
The Buccaneers’ front seven is solid this season and have kept opposing running backs in check, and leads me to under 51.5 yards for Cook.
Gabe Davis Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
While it’s a tough matchup on the ground for the Bills, it’s a solid one in the air.
The Buccaneers have allowed the 16th most (1,075) receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, which is right at the league average. They’re not a pass defense we need to be too worried about and that leads us to over 41.5 receiving yards for Gabriel Davis.
There’s no denying that Davis can be a bit inconsistent with his production but he’s got great underlying metrics we can’t pass up.
On the season, Davis has a 14.9% target share and 26.6% air yards share, both of which are the second-highest on the team, and a 15.8 average depth of target (aDOT), which is the highest on the team.
His role is consistent, but his results are not. After a few slow games, I’m buying a bounce-back spot for Davis against a very average defense.
When it comes to the Vikings’ defense, they are in the bottom 10 of the league for the most receptions (100) and yards (1,164) allowed to opposing wide receivers this season.
We’ve also seen the Vikings’ secondary get torched by the long ball this season, allowing long receptions of 24, 25, 28, 28, 30, 33, 40, 49, and 63 yards.
This should play well into Aiyuk’s skillset, who has broken off long receptions of 23, 23, 25, 25, 33, 34, and 42 yards.
Between his usage and the matchup, Aiyuk is in a great spot to have a big game.
— Tom Vecchio
Bills vs. Bucs Prediction: NFL Week 8
The numberFire projections model gives Buffalo a significant 69.8% chance of victory against Tampa Bay.
A spread of 8.5 points and a total of 42.5 implies a final score of approximately 25.5-17.
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