This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research.
Get set for Sunday’s AFC West clash with a big Chargers vs. Chiefs prediction, plus the latest odds and betting insights from Week 7’s top games from our friends at FanDuel.
After one of the better Thursday night contests of the season — a road upset for the Jacksonville Jaguars over the New Orleans Saints — NFL Week 7 is officially off and rolling.
That game at the Superdome also served as a stopper for a certain totals streak. Pertaining to the Saints, the combined total had gone under in every one of their matchups this year until last night; a fourth-quarter 17-yard touchdown pass from Derek Carr to Michael Thomas cashed a win for over bettors.
Although we have six different sides on bye in Week 7 (CAR, CIN, DAL, HOU, NYJ, and TEN), Sunday’s smaller slate still offers a few high-quality clashes. In the early window, the Detroit Lions will visit the Baltimore Ravens as respective division leaders.
For the afternoon action, I am most interested in the AFC West clash in KCMO. There, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the division rival Los Angeles Chargers — fireworks always seem to fly whenever those two sides get together.
Week7 NFL Betting Picks
Sunday’s Full Slate
|Remaining NFL Week 7 Matchups||Kickoff Time (EST)||Favorite|
|Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens||1 p.m.||BAL|
|Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts||1 p.m.||CLE|
|Washington Commanders at New York Giants||1 p.m.||WSH|
|Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears||1 p.m.||LV|
|Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots||1 p.m.||BUF|
|Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers||1 p.m.||TB|
|Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Rams||4:05 p.m.||LAR|
|Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks||4:05 p.m.||SEA|
|Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs||4:25 p.m.||KC|
|Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos||4:25 p.m.||GB|
|Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles||8:20 p.m.||PHI|
|San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings||8:15 p.m./Mon.||SF|
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Time: 1 p.m. EST
- TV: FOX
- Spread: TB -2.5
- Moneyline: ATL +120/TB -142
- Total: 37.5
An NFC South contest, the Atlanta Falcons (3-3) will make the short trip to tussle with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2). At the moment, Tampa holds just a half-game lead over Atlanta and New Orleans for the division’s top spot, but the “Dirty Birds” will be looking to change that this weekend.
In 2023, the Bucs have been led by a stout defense and timely quarterback play from Baker Mayfield. Tampa is allowing just 17.6 PPG, which is the seventh-best clip in the NFL right now. Of course, for the Falcons, they have been laboring arduously on offense. Producing only 20.0 PPG so far, Atlanta is currently a bottom-four offense.
Notably, Falcon signal-caller Desmond Ridder is struggling in his rookie campaign. He is averaging a short 6.8 yards per pass attempt while sporting an inefficient 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. With that considered, I think the rook is in for a rough outing in West Central Florida.
Best Bet: Buccaneers -2.5 (-110)
Although Tampa Bay has shown mixed results of their own in 2023, they have been much more consistent when compared to Atlanta. Simply, I think the many hyper-athletic Buccaneers on defense are a large reason for that. Behind experienced stars like Antoine Winfield Jr., Devin White, Lavonte David, and Vita Vea, I don’t see this bunch from ATL in a favorable spot.
For this bid, the game projections at numberFire share my line of thinking. Their model has Tampa emerging victorious this Sunday by an estimated score of 25.58-21.06. Given that the Bucs are laying less than a field goal at the moment, I will not pass this line up. I see Tampa Bay moving to 4-2 after this week, winning by a touchdown or more versus Atlanta.
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens
- Time: 1 p.m. EST
- TV: FOX
- Spread: BAL -3
- Moneyline: DET +134/BAL -158
- Total: 43.5 (-105/-115)
In what might end up as the best game of the weekend, the Lions will head east to “Charm City” where the Ravens await. At 4-2 straight up (SU), Baltimore is pacing the AFC North while Detroit is 5-1 atop the NFC North. Maybe it’s a bit too early to exclaim, but I absolutely see this contest as a potential Super Bowl preview.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Lions (+1400) and Ravens (+1500) both fall within the top eight of Super Bowl LVIII odds. Of course, whichever side emerges victorious here will likely see their price shorten considerably in the big game market.
Detroit and Baltimore are both built on solid football culture in the present epoch. Respective quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff are each enjoying quality individual seasons, but the latter has been more sharp in 2023. Right now, Goff’s QBR yields 73.3, which is fourth-best throughout the entire NFL.
Best Bet: Over 43.5 (-105)
I don’t hate a play on the Lions moneyline this week (+134 on FanDuel Sportsbook), but I am finding more comfort in a play on the total for this contest. Considering Baltimore and Detroit are both in the top third for total offensive yardage, over 43.5 points feels best to me.
Outside of yardage, the Lions are actually the fourth-best scoring offense (28.0 PPG) in the league right now. Admittedly, passing conditions might be a little harsh in B’More, but expect these sides to lead on their high-end rushing attacks. Even with David Montgomery sitting this one out, perhaps rookie Jahmyr Gibbs keeps up the rampant ground production — gimmie the over.
Additionally, if you really like the Lions SU in this contest, you should head to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out Howie Long’s promotional parlay. The NFL Hall-of-Famer has cooked up a four-teamer and — spoiler alert — Detroit ML is one of his selections.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
- Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
- TV: CBS
- Spread: KC -5.5
- Moneyline: LAC +194/KC -230
- Total: 47.5 (-115/-105)
In the modern era, it feels as if the Chargers and Chiefs have gone on to produce some of the most entertaining head-to-head football games. Between the rocket-throwing arms of Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, their high-scoring head-to-head affairs really should not be a surprise to anyone.
Entering Week 7, these offensive units are beginning to take full form. Notably, Travis Kelce missed Kansas City’s opener while Austin Ekeler missed a few weeks for the Bolts with an ankle injury. Right now, the Chiefs are scoring 24.5 PPG (10th in NFL) while LAC is producing a clip of 25.4 (7th).
Initially, a play on the Chargers against the spread (ATS) caught my eye, but considering their habit of late-game collapses, I would rather not get burned there. Also, the Chargers are a poor 2-3 ATS in 2023 — that steers me into a move on the total of 47.5 points.
Best Bet: Over 47.5 (-115)
Since Herbert entered the NFL, he has faced the Chiefs in six separate contests. In that stretch, the combined point total between the Bolts and K.C. has gone over 47.5 points at an 83.3% rate. Additionally, those six games have produced an average total of 56.0 PPG.
Considering the offensive skill cast featured in this one — Mahomes, Herbert, Kelce, Ekeler, Keenan Allen, etc. — I think this one will turn into a scoring show as per usual. Mahomes and Herbert always seem to bring out the best of each other.
— Gabriel Santiago
Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction: NFL Week 7
The numberFire projections model gives Kansas City a significant 74.1% chance of victory against Los Angeles.
A spread of 5.5 points and a total of 47.5 implies a final score of approximately 26.5-21.
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