This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research.
Lock in for Week 7 with a big Jaguars vs. Saints prediction, plus the latest odds and betting insights from our friends at FanDuel.
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways — from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we’re going to focus on the former.
Week 7 of the 2023 NFL season is here, and we kick things off on Thursday Night! I’ll be bringing this article every Thursday along with a show on the Covering the Spread podcast feed to break things down.
Jaguars vs. Saints Prop Bets: NFL Week 7
Alvin Kamara Any Time Touchdown (+120)
Alvin Kamara Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The New Orleans Saints are hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 7.
This game features a very modest 39.5-point over/under and sees the home Saints favored by 1.5 points. The Jaguars’ defense has been struggling this season and we want some props that reflect that, so let’s start with a pair from Alvin Kamara.
Since Kamara returned from his three-game suspension to start the year, he’s played a large part of the Saints’ offense and offers plenty of value in the prop market.
Over the last three weeks, Kamara has been playing on 72.7% of the offensive snaps, running a route on 56.1% of dropbacks, a 22.9% target share, and 57.1% red zone target share. Both the target share and the red zone target share are the highest on the team over the last three weeks.
This has led to Kamara racking up 25 targets, 23 receptions, and 86 receiving yards in these three games.
The Jaguars have struggled against running backs in the passing game and have allowed 243 receiving yards, which is the seventh-most in the league.
Between Kamara’s high offensive usage and the favorable matchup against the Jaguars’ defense, he’s primed for a big game.
Chris Olave Over 23.5 Longest Reception (-114)
Sticking with the Saints, we’ll turn to Chris Olave and over 23.5 longest reception.
Olave is a consistent deep-ball threat for the Saints and is known for breaking off big plays. To this point in the season, Olave has hauled in long receptions of 24, 27, 28, 42, and 45 yards.
This shouldn’t be a surprise since Olave leads the team with a 39.3% air yards share and 14.7 average depth of target (aDOT), which is the second-highest on the team.
The Jaguars’ secondary is struggling this season and has allowed 1,080 receiving yards to wide receivers, which is the fifth-most in the league. They’ve allowed a total of 13 receptions that have gone for 22 yards or more, 10 of which have been for 30 yards or more.
The Saints look to get Olave the ball deep down the field and the Jaguars’ defense has been getting torched by the long ball this year, setting up a big gainer from Olave this week.
— Tom Vecchio
Saints vs. Jaguars Prediction: NFL Week 7
The numberFire projections model gives the Jaguars a 56.1% chance of victory against Los Angeles.
A spread of 1.5 points and a total of 39.5 implies a final score of approximately 20.5-19.
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