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Bills vs. Giants Week 6: Who Has the Oddsmakers’ Edge on Sunday Night Football?

This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research.

Lock in for SNF with a big Giants vs. Bills prediction, plus the latest odds and betting insights from our friends at FanDuel.

The New York Giants are the latest NFL team to fall woefully short of expectations while being featured in what feels like far too many primetime games. After last season’s surprise 9-7-1 finish, New York entered the season with playoff aspirations. The NFL reacted by placing the Giants into six primetime slots. For the third time since Week 3, New York will be playing under the lights.

This likely produces a collective sigh for most NFL fans as the Giants have lost their last three games by an average margin of 18 points. This week, New York will head about 300 miles northwest to take on the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on Sunday Night Football.

The Bills come off a 25-20 loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars as 5.5-point favorites in London. The Giants have a long list of injuries that have caused the point spread to steadily climb. When looking at FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL odds, Buffalo is favored by 15.5 points. New York’s postseason hopes already look nearly impossible while Buffalo boasts the fourth-shortest line to win the Lombardi Trophy (+1000), per FanDuel’s Super Bowl odds.

Following the San Francisco 49ers’ 42-10 win against the Dallas Cowboys in last week’s edition of SNF, are we in store for another primetime blowout? Does New York (1-4) have a chance of keeping within striking distance of the Bills (3-2)? Let’s break things down with a big Bills vs. Giants prediction, plus the latest odds and betting insights from FanDuel.

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Giants vs. Bills Week 6 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

  • Spread: Bills -15.5 (-110)
  • Total: 43.5
  • Moneyline:
    • Bills: -1200
    • Giants: +750

Giants vs. Bills Week 6 Matchup Analysis

Before digging into the matchup, let’s look at the Giants’ injury report. Daniel JonesAndrew ThomasJohn Michael Schmitz, and Azeez Ojulari have been ruled out for Sunday’s game.

Thomas — the 2022 All-Pro — and Schmitz will be difficult to replace on the offensive line. The blocking has been bad enough, ranking 28th in ESPN’s pass block win rate and 17th in run block win rate. What happens when you take away two more starters? The nightmare probably gets even worse. Tyrod Taylor will fill in the starting signal-caller spot. He has not started a game since the 2021 season in which he threw five interceptions in six starts.

Fortunately, Saquon Barkley could be nearing his return from an ankle injury, which has kept him out for three consecutive games. The Giants could look to lean on their star running back — especially if Jones is absent.

The Bills have the 12th-worst run defense, per numberFire’s adjusted run defense ratings. Buffalo also suffered devastating injuries in Week 5. Matt Milano (leg), who is one of the NFL’s best off-ball linebackers, and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones (pectoral) sustained potential season-ending injuries and were placed on injured reserve this week. This could cause the run defense to further slide — especially with Milano out of the fold.

Buffalo also lost cornerback Tre’Davious White for the season due to an Achilles injury. Once again, this leaves the Bills’ defense somewhat susceptible. New York has numberFire’s second-worst adjusted offensive rating, though. Plus, Buffalo still has the third-best adjusted defensive rating as they weather the storm.

If the Giants are to come up with a point-spread cover, the defense must show up. The Bills’ offense has concerns with their tight end room with Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid listed as questionable for Sunday’s game. Outside of tight ends, Buffalo’s offense is healthy.

The Bills have numberFire’s third-best mark in offensive rankings. Stopping the run game could be the biggest key for New York. They have the 15th-worst run defense while Buffalo has the sixth-best rush offense, per numberFire’s schedule-adjusted ratings.

After attempting only 14 runs in Week 5, look for the Bills to get back to running the rock. James Cook has excelled when his number is called, averaging 74.0 rushing yards when receiving at least 12 carries. Cook also ranks ninth with 138 rushing yards after contact.

Ultimately, I don’t trust New York to keep this close. Buffalo still has one of the league’s best defenses, and with the Giants battling a load of injuries on the offensive side, New York could be in store for another low-scoring game. Led by Josh Allen, who has +700 odds to win the NFL MVP award, the Bills could roll to cover the spread easily.

— Riley Thomas

Bills vs. Giants Prediction: NFL Week 6

The numberFire projections model gives the Bills a significant 87.8% chance of victory against New York.

A spread of 15.5 points and a total of 43.5 implies a final score of approximately 29.5-14.

Week 6 Bills vs. Giants prediction according to numberFire projections model

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