Your curated list of wagers for Week 5 of the NFL season, from moneylines and player props to overlooked underdogs.
Spooky is one word to describe the horrific luck October brought us last week.
Those following along surely saw their jaws drop to the ground when Jonathan Taylor got hurt and left the game in the fourth after his 20th carry, snuffing a nicely-called prop bet on his Over 20.5 carries. And don’t even get me started on that Jets–Steelers Under 41.5 “loss” in the final seconds.
Okay, enough dwelling on what should have been. Onto our NFL Week 5 best bets rundown.
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NFL Week 5 Best Bets Overview 2022
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best Over/Under Bet of Week 5
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
- Over/Under: 51.5
If there is one rivalry in pro football right now that best exemplifies a big brother-little brother dynamic, it’s got to be this.
Since being drafted in 2017, the great Patrick Mahomes has faced the Raiders eight times and emerged victorious in all but one of them. Hilariously, after that lone defeat a couple of seasons ago — which saw the opposition take a victory bus lap around Arrowhead Stadium afterward — Mahomes and his crew proceeded to throttle Las Vegas in both meetings last year by a combined score of 89-21. Now that is how to punish your little brother after something ridiculous.
Such a dominant record against this foe should come as no surprise given what Mahomes has put on display. For his career, Mahomes holds an electric 112.4 passer rating while registering 22 touchdown passes compared to only three interceptions in these encounters. He’s also averaged 318.3 passing yards.
Think it’s safe to say the former league MVP loves when Vegas is next on the docket, especially with KC seemingly able to score at will. Mahomes and Co. are averaging 37.4 points per game opposite the Raiders, never even failing to reach the 28-point plateau. Given that he’ll be at Arrowhead in this one — where the Chiefs have tallied 30 points on average in Mahomes’ 40 career home starts (including postseason) — another offensive explosion just seems inevitable.
Travis Kelce loves his dates with the Rrrrraaaaaiiiiddeehhhs, too. During his nine years in the league, all of which spent as a Chief, Kelce has notched 87 catches for 1,226 yards and seven touchdowns.
But can Vegas do its part for an over? Well thankfully, they were able to secure their first win of the season last week after being the final winless team remaining in the NFL. They did it in style, too, as Derek Carr led the Raiders to 32 points against a very stout Denver Broncos defensive unit.
When he’s went toe to toe with the Chiefs in the past, Carr hasn’t been nearly as successful statistically as his counterpart but he’s improved upon that in recent seasons. In fact, despite a lifetime 81.2 passer rating versus Kansas City in 16 games, the Fresno State product has seen that mark inflate significantly to 105.6 across the last two years. It’s also easy to argue that Carr is now playing with the best weapon he’s ever had in Davante Adams. Plus, he’s getting back Hunter Renfrow.
Along with Carr is one of the league’s leading rushers Josh Jacobs, who ranks fifth in yards on the ground. What awaits him is the top-ranked rush defense but considering how the Chiefs usually have a decisive lead at some point during the ballgame, I would say that’s more the result of teams being forced to pass more.
The lively infusion of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman to the Monday Night Football broadcast booth has only hosted one game to top 40 points. This game will change that and sail over the total. Just buy the half point to be protected in the event of a 31-20/30-21/34-17-type affair.
Pick: OVER 51 (-120)
Best Point Spread Bet of Week 5
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
- Spread: Bengals +3.5/Ravens -3.5
If not for a pair of puzzling collapses, the Ravens would be sitting pretty at 4-0 right now, having conquered their AFC East gauntlet-style quartet of games to begin the season. Instead, they’re 2-2 thanks to blown double-digit second-half leads in two of those bouts, including one in which they relinquished a 21-point advantage in the fourth quarter (spoiling our Week 2 spread pick, by the way). Overall, they’ve actually only trailed for 14 seconds in their defeats! Very strange, but indicative of a team playing well if they’re usually in control of a ballgame.
Now they must face the division rival Bengals, who shockingly obliterated Baltimore in both meetings last year by a combined 82-38 score. The script of their first 2022 matchup figures to go in a different direction, however.
The main reason for Cincy’s destruction of the Ravens a year ago was Joe Burrow’s mastery of the opposition. He accumulated nearly 1,000 yards (!!) through the air across the season series — no, that’s not a typo; Burrow compiled 416 yards in the first encounter before tacking on another 525 in the third-to-last game of the campaign.
But au contraire, nothing like that will happen in their first date together this season.
First, that Ravens defense Burrow torched was ravaged by injuries. Missing numerous key players in the secondary, it’s not such a shock that they allowed more passing yards than any other team. They’re admittedly doing the same thing so far this season, but that has more to do with the fact that they’ve been leading decisively late in each week, so opponents are forced to throw more while playing from behind.
In addition, Baltimore is led by a new defensive coordinator, Mike Macdonald, and it can be surmised that he’s a good bet at least to provide a different look and feel than what Burrow became accustomed to last year with Wink Martindale in charge (not to mention we don’t have to worry about Macdonald serving quality bulletin board material to Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase like Martindale did).
Either way, it’s going to take another strong outing from Lamar Jackson and his group in order to score some cash on this Ravens spread. That, too, looks like a solid bet given what he’s been showcasing on his warpath en route to a new contract. His 11 touchdown passes actually have him tied for the league lead, while his 105.1 passer rating sits him in fourth. And not only that, but Jackson is still lighting up the scoreboard, as Baltimore is third in scoring with 29.8 points per game. Notably, that’s about what they’ve averaged since Jackson became the full-time starter a few years ago.
There’s no doubt the Ravens will be hungrier to avenge those two aforementioned embarrassing blowouts, let alone end their very uncharacteristic five-game losing streak at home. I think they’re the better team as well, and that makes this wager academic.
Just buy the half-point in case they only win by a field goal to be sure.
Pick: RAVENS -3 (-129)
Best Teaser Bet (2 games, 7 points) of Week 5
- Buccaneers -10 —> -3
- Chiefs -7.5 —> -0.5
A teaser simply relying on Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. What could go wrong?
True, we did bet against Brady — straight up, that is — in each of the last two weeks and came away with the W both times. But that’s what adds to the desire of backing him in this particular instance.
Not often does Brady lose back-to-back games. But when it does happen, that fire and competitiveness the 45-year-old is known for becomes even more unhinged, and that should preside over this contest with a lackluster Falcons squad, whom he’s 4-0 against since joining the Bucs. Remember also that Brady has his full assortment of weapons back healthy now.
Then we have the Monday Night game to cap things off. As highlighted in our over/under this week, Patrick Mahomes is 7-1 against the Raiders and has engineered at least 28 points for the Chiefs in each of those outings. After that pair of beatdowns KC issued to Vegas last year, I’m not convinced they’ve forgotten about their 2020 “victory lap” around Arrowhead, meaning they’re still angry.
Best Prop Bet of Week 5
- Mike Williams Over/Under 4.5 Receptions
Oh, hey now. The interim No. 1 wideout on a pass-happy offense while Keenan Allen (hamstring) remains out is still being attached to a receptions prop of 4.5? OK.
Not only that, another member of the receiving corps, Joshua Palmer (ankle), is questionable, and even if he does suit up, it remains to be seen how much action he’ll get. Palmer was on the field for a season low in snap share last week and might be on a pitch count due to the injury
That once again leaves Mike Williams with a boatload of extra targets to potentially swallow up, something he’s done for the most part. In two of the three games Allen missed previously, the former first-round draft pick drew a whopping 21 throws and converted on 15 of those for catches. The one game he wasn’t a factor was the surprising blowout loss to the Jaguars.
This won’t be a blowout. And win or lose, Justin Herbert will be dropping back and throwing plenty. Williams has been inconsistent at times throughout his time in the National Football League but this looks like a spot he can again excel in.
Pick: OVER 4.5 Receptions (-156)
NFL Best Bets Record for the 2022 Season
- Over/Unders: “1-3”
- Spreads: “2-2”
- Teasers: “1-1-1”
- Props: “0-3”
- Overall Record*: “4-9-1,” -8.98 units
*Each over/under is graded to win 2 units; everything else for 1 unit
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