Your curated list of wagers for Week 4 of the NFL season, from moneylines and player props to overlooked underdogs.
During the grind of an NFL campaign, some weeks will stick out a lot more than others, and for me, that certainly appears to be the case surrounding this first action of October.
With that in mind, let’s get right to our best NFL bets for Week 4 of the 2022 season and aim to improve upon that 2-2 performance from last week.
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NFL Week 4 Best Bets Overview 2022
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best Over/Under Bet of Week 4
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
Over/Under: 41.5
For one reason or another, a lot of messy football has been on display throughout the season’s first few weeks, especially in primetime games. Here, we have an affair from Heinz Fiel… err, “Acrisure Stadium,” that figures to yield more of the same.
Oh, where to begin? First, Week 4 marks the return of sophomore signal-caller Zach Wilson after sitting on the sidelines due to a knee injury he suffered in the preseason that required surgery. Suffice to say that the Jets will likely be taking it easy with their hopeful franchise quarterback of the future in his first game of the season as they ease him back in — and on a field that may feature questionable playing conditions given that a Georgia Tech–Pitt college football clash is taking place at the same venue just 15 hours prior to opening kickoff.
More pressing than that, though, is the fact New York will be trotting out an offensive line currently ravaged by injuries. The club’s top three tackles — George Fant (knee), Mekhi Becton (knee), and Duane Brown (shoulder) — are all on injured reserve, and considering this was already an area of weakness in recent years, it would be foolish for them not to be careful with Wilson.
Though the Steelers are without reigning Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt (pectoral) at the moment, this is still a very good defense with enough talent to handle business against a lackluster group. Pittsburgh generates a lot of pressure up front as is, hence how they’ve registered nine sacks already, and they’re also one of 10 teams that are holding opposing QBs to a sub-80.0 passer rating. As a result, expect the Jets to run often and engineer a lot of short passes, which can only help fuel a lower-scoring game script while minimizing big gains.
That brings us to the other key dynamic of this contest: Mitchell Trubisky and Co. against an improved Jets defense.
In case you haven’t seen him yet this season and were wondering how the former Chicago Bear has looked in his new digs, well, things haven’t been great! Only one other team — the Bears, ironically — has mustered fewer total yards per game thus far, and most notably in Trubisky’s game is that he’s barely been running with the football, accumulating only a total of six rush attempts in three weeks. If the scrambling aspect is removed from his arsenal, it’s hard to argue that Trubisky is capable of being even league-average at best.
Meanwhile, the D of Gang Green is in the midst of a rebirth of sorts after getting back CJ Mosley and Carl Lawson from last year’s season-ending injuries, as well as the additions of DJ Reed and rookie Sauce Gardner in the secondary. It hasn’t yet fully translated yet in terms of the numbers, but with noted defensive guru Robert Saleh serving as the brains behind the operation, it’s worth expecting more success than not from the Jets on this side of the ball.
At the very least, they’re capable of making things challenging right now for an already-challenged Trubisky-led offense.
Pick: UNDER 41.5 (-110)
Best Point Spread Bet of Week 4
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Chiefs +1/Buccaneers -1
Is this the final time Patrick Mahomes and Tom Bray meet as opponents? If so, what a rivalry it’s been, albeit across only five years, but the moments their matchups created are just unforgettable. They’ve duked it out in a Super Bowl and Conference Championship Game, while their two other bouts that occurred during the regular season were entertaining, high-scoring slugfests. When all is said and done for Mahomes, these might be the two men who legitimately go down as the greatest of all time.
As for the present day, this actually seems like déjà vu. Last week, if you’ll recall, Brady found himself at home opposite another future Hall-of-Fame quarterback, Aaron Rodgers — and as a slight favorite despite a relatively unimpressive showing so far this year. The 23-year (!!) veteran didn’t really do much in that affair either to quell the notion that he’s perhaps fading, yet the linesmakers have opted to once again tab Bray and his bunch with a one-point edge.
To that, I suggest the linesmakers aren’t yet ready to accept the fact that Bray is in decline. The 224.3 passing yards per game he’s churned out projects him for his lowest average since 2006, and with just a grand total of three touchdown passes, Brady is also on pace for the fewest amount of TDs in his entire career. It’s October and there should be concern by now, right?
While it’s true that the Bucs field general may finally have his full assortment of weapons at his disposal for the first time this season, is that going to be enough for a sudden jump to keep up with the high-octane Chiefs? I don’t think it will be, especially when you consider two of those pieces — Julio Jones and Russell Gage — are new to Brady’s supporting cast and need a little time to gel.
Maybe most importantly, this will be the version of Mahomes that is coming off a rare loss, something you do not want to mess with. In 66 career regular season games, the former MVP has been defeated twice in a row only three times — and one of those instances (2019) was because he was playing through injury.
Unsurprisingly, Mahomes typically posts monster stats after an L, and this being the first encounter between he and Brady since Super Bowl LV, there’s a sense he still has revenge on his mind.
Pick: CHIEFS +1 (-110)
Best Teaser Bet (2 games, 6.5 points) of Week 4
Oh boy. In order to secure this week’s teaser wager, the Chargers will have to successfully revisit the site of where their campaign a year ago started to come apart: NRG Stadium in Houston.
There were numerous jaw-dropping upsets in the NFL last season but arguably the biggest of them all was when an 8-6 Chargers squad — one that appeared to be playoff bound — fell to the 3-11 Texans in Week 16. LA still had a chance to reach the postseason had they won their final game but they could’ve dodged that whole scenario and simply been in prior if they had simply beaten the Texans.
I wouldn’t be surprised if that was a memory replayed often through the mind of Justin Herbert this past offseason, and considering how his Chargers currently sit at 1-2, this is once again an opportunity they absolutely need to take advantage of. Houston is 0-3.
Sure, Los Angeles is a little banged up right now but even with some key guys on the sidelines, they’re still the far superior team and one that is capable of winning decisively. In addition, Herbert is out to a very nice start this year, and aside from excellent numbers through the first three games (98.9 passer rating, 910 yards, seven touchdowns), he’s also been getting great protection from his offensive line, only being sacked three times. The Chargers will ensure there’s no repeat of last year — and it’s not like the Texans are playing well right now entering Week 4.
As for the second half of this bet, which comes from the late-afternoon slate, well, there’s no need to overthink it. If Mac Jones was starting for the Patriots, that’s one thing. But he’s not due to a high ankle sprain that will keep him out weeks.
Instead, it’ll be Brian Hoyer in the QB saddle, bringing an 11-game losing streak (!) as a starter along with him. During this stretch, he’s compiled more interceptions (eight) than passing touchdowns (seven). Do we really think that’s going to snap at hallowed Lambeau Field against Aaron Rodgers? Uh, no.
Best Prop Bet of Week 4
Jonathan Taylor Over/Under 20.5 Rushing Attempts
Those who enjoy an old-fashioned football showdown on the gridiron with a lot of running plays will be in for a treat when the Titans and Colts renew their rivalry in Week 4.
That rivalry extends beyond the two AFC South division residents, as this bout will host perhaps the two biggest workhorses among all NFL tailbacks, Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor. One or the other has topped the league in carries in each of the last three years and both currently sit inside the top five in this department — they’ll both still be there at season’s end, barring injury.
For the purposes of this bet, we only care about Taylor and how his usage shakes out. Given how he’s been deployed at the start of the season, taking him to top that 20-carry plateau seems like a good bet.
The 2020 second-round pick has gone over this number in two of three 2022 contests thus far, while the one instance he did not was related to the Colts getting uncharacteristically walloped in Jacksonville. It’s safe to surmise that at the very least, this should be a competitive, tight ballgame.
Although Taylor tallied only 26 attempts on the ground combined in Indy’s two meetings with the Titans last year, those matchups occurred before November, when the Wisconsin product still wasn’t being leaned on as much as he should’ve been. Of course, that philosophy has changed significantly and I expect such Taylor-feeding tendencies to continue here.
Pick: OVER 20.5 Rushing Attempts (-114)
Check back later this weekend for our best point spread bet for Week 4!
NFL Best Bets Record for the 2022 Season
- Over/Unders: 1-2
- Spreads: 1-2
- Teasers: 1-1
- Props: 0-2
- Overall Record*: 3-7, -6.64 units
*Each over/under is graded to win 2 units; everything else for 1 unit
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