This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research
Football Sundays are back! Check out the full rundown of NFL Week 1 picks and betting insights from the experts at FanDuel Research.
Each week throughout the 2023 NFL season, the staff at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board — one side, one total, and one player prop. They’ll share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they’re on that bet.
It’s time! Check out the full rundown of NFL Week 1 predictions and betting insights below for Cowboys-Giants, Eagles-Patriots, Packers-Bears, Bills-Jets, and more.
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NFL Week 1 Predictions & Expert Picks
All odds appear via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting lines and numberFire’s player projections may change after this article was published.
Jim Sannes, Digital Media Managing Editor
Side: New York Jets +2.5 (-110)
The Buffalo Bills are the third-ranked team in my power rankings, so I’m very in on them this year. But the Jets’ defense was superb last year despite poor turnover luck, and they’ve added Aaron Rodgers on offense. The offensive line is a concern, but they benefit a bit from the absence of Von Miller. This has the potential to look dumb because the Bills can go nuclear, but my model has this game as being closer to a toss-up.
Total: Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts Under 50.5 (-105)
Player Prop: Nico Collins Over 41.5 receiving yards (-114)
Austin Swaim, Senior Editor
Side: New England Patriots +4.5 (-105)
Total: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts Over 46.5 (-106)
This number seems a bit high for a raw quarterback in his first start for one of the league’s worst projected win totals, but if Anthony Richardson’s comfortable preseason translates, this game is primed to be a bit of a shootout. These two have bottom-five secondaries, per the preseason ranks at Pro Football Focus. There isn’t much doubt about Trevor Lawrence and a Jags’ passing attack that added Calvin Ridley this offseason. Any competitive effort by the Indianapolis offense should force them to keep working, and this curiously tight spread is all the validation I need to expect one.
Player Prop: Brian Robinson Anytime TD (+130)
Austan Kas, Senior Editor
Side: New Orleans Saints -3.0 (-105)
Total: Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots Under 45.0 (-114)
Player Prop: James Conner Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
This is a tough spot for Conner in Week 1. Washington permitted the sixth-fewest rushing yards to running backs in 2022, and with the Cardinals a touchdown ‘dog on the road, the game script isn’t likely to work in Conner’s favor when it comes to rushing volume as the game progresses.
Tom Vecchio, Editor
Side: Denver Broncos -3.5 (-105)
Total: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings Over 46.0 (-110)
Player Prop: Trevor Lawrence Over 34.5 Passing Attempts (-125)
With TLaw and the Jags primed to take the next step this season, they will look to build on last season’s success via the air. In the final three games last season, they held a 69.49% pass play percentage, which was the second-highest in the league. They open the season with a favorable matchup against one of the league’s worst secondaries. T-Law will air the ball out this week.
Kenyatta Storin, Editor
Side: Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5 (-105)
Our opening power rankings place Jacksonville 10th, while the Colts are predictably near the bottom at 30th. With no Jonathan Taylor and a rookie quarterback making his NFL debut, it’s hard to see Indianapolis keeping pace with what should be a strong Jaguars offense.
Total: Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots Under 45.0 (-114)
Player Prop: Daniel Jones Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Aidan Cotter, Writer
Side: Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-110)
Total: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks Under 46.5 (-112)
Player Prop: Justin Fields Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Even if the Chicago Bears pass more this year, they won’t phase Fields’ legs out completely. He ran for at least 60 yards in 9 of his final 10 games in 2022, including a 6-carry, 71-yard performance against Green Bay in Week 13. With the Packers giving up the third-most rushing yards over expectation per attempt (2.86) to quarterbacks last season, Fields should run all over the cheeseheads.
Zack Bussiere, Writer
Side: Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5 (-105)
The Colts have finally begun their rebuild by opting for an exciting quarterback prospect in the draft after years of trying and failing to address the position via free agency. That decision improves the Colts’ future outlook, but the future is now for the Jaguars. Since their Week 11 bye last season, the Jaguars are 8-2, including a seven-point loss to the Chiefs in the playoffs. Jacksonville is 10th in our Power Rankings, the Colts are 30th. With no Jonathan Taylor, this is a difficult task for Anthony Richardson in his NFL debut.
Total: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks Under 46.5 (-112)
Player Prop: Sam Howell Over 207.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Gabriel Santiago, Writer
Side: Minnesota Vikings -5.5 (-115)
The Minnesota Vikings have gone 3-2 in 5 season openers with Kirk Cousins (including 3-1 at home), scoring an average of 26.6 points per game in those contests. With the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers currently enduring an identity crisis, I like the Vikings to cover upwards up a touchdown at home.
Total: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons Over 39.5 (-115)
Player Prop: Geno Smith Over 251.5 passing yards (-114)
Nick Vazquez, Writer
Side: Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 (-112)
The drum beat for the Steelers in training camp was loud, with second-year QB Kenny Pickett having a strong preseason. TJ Watt will be healthy, and Pittsburgh was 8-2 with him on the field last season. Meanwhile, the 49ers are starting still unproven QB Brock Purdy, lost Mike McGlinchey on the offensive line, and will be traveling from the West Coast for an early kickoff. Give me the Steelers to at least cover the 2.5-point spread.
Total: Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints Over 41.5 (-110)
Player Prop: Cam Akers Under 62.5 rushing yards (-114)
Scott Edwards, Writer
Side: Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 (-105)
The Bengals are coming into the new season as a Super Bowl contender… so why do we think a Cleveland Browns team led by Deshaun Watson, who was arguably the league’s worst quarterback when he returned last year (55.3 PFF grade), is going to keep this so close? Yeah, no thanks. Joe Burrow is a newly paid man who is ready to go for this game. He’s going to show up and deliver. Cincinnati is going to come out swinging to kick off this season.
Total: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants Under 45.5 (-115)
Player Prop: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (+125)
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