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NFL MVP Odds Entering Week 10: Mahomes is No. 1 Amid Josh Allen Uncertainty

Last Updated: November 22, 2022
After leading the Chiefs to a nervy win against the Titans, Mahomes is now the man to beat on the NFL MVP odds board as questions swirl in Buffalo about Allen’s elbow.

Folks, after nine weeks of regular season play, someone named Josh Allen isn’t the frontrunner for this year’s NFL MVP award. The Buffalo Bills took their second L of the season on Sunday against the AFC East rival New York Jets. In the contest, Allen completed 18 passes on 34 completions for 205 yards and two interceptions. Following the 20-17 loss, Allen kept things blunt about his rough afternoon.

“It’s tough to win in this league. We were playing a good team here, (and) your quarterback plays like shit,” Allen said of his performance via NFL.com. “Made some bad decisions tonight, really cost our team. A lot to learn from, a lot to grow from, but that’s not the standard we hold ourselves to. That’s not the ball that we play.”

As if things couldn’t get worse, Allen is also allegedly experiencing pain in his throwing elbow. Taking place after Allen had the ball knocked out of his right hand on a strip-sack by Bryce Huff on Buffalo’s final possession, the injury casts a pall over not just the races for league MVP or the AFC East, but the Super Bowl.

“There’s some slight pain, but we’ll get through it,” the 25-year-old said after the game, playing down concerns he could be sidelined ahead of a crucial showdown against an impressive Minnesota Vikings side.

So, a loss against a divisional foe and an elbow sprain that puts Super Bowl aspirations (temporarily) on hold? Naturally, Allen’s MVP stock would dip — perhaps we didn’t anticipate something so swift — but our trusty friends at FanDuel Sportsbook have the updated odds heading into a critical Week 10 across the league.

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2022 NFL MVP Odds: Week 10

All odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Nov. 1 following the conclusion of Week 9 and are subject to change.

Talk about a shakeup! After a forgettable first-half performance on Sunday Night Football, Patrick Mahomes cosplayed as a running back in the final quarter of a crucial matchup against the Tennessee Titans at Arrowhead. On a 3rd & 9 with three minutes left in regulation, Showtime evaded three Titans defenders to power-walk into the endzone to score like only he can.

Mahomes would also take it himself for the two-point conversion, sending the game into overtime and squeaking out a 20-17 win for the hosts. Kansas City fans worldwide collectively breathed a sigh of relief, but was there any reason to doubt the NFL’s most dynamic player? Even when he isn’t putting up competitive numbers, Mahomes shines on the turf. The Texas Tech product was as sharp in the air as he was on the ground, tossing the ball 68 times for 446 yards, and in so doing, he became the first player in the Super Bowl era with at least 400 yards and a passing touchdown and 60 yards and a rushing touchdown in the same game.

The Chiefs’ 2017 first-round pick also leads the NFL in passing yards (2,605) and passing touchdowns (21) through eight games. Even on his worst day (by his standards), Mahomes’ first-place jump in the MVP race is justified.

Another notable change to the top six? The reintroduction of Tua Tagovailoa. Bouncing back from a frightening injury earlier in the year, the former Alabama and Oklahoma QB sits at +1100 odds to win the trophy. The Dolphins are a Super Bowl contender despite a crowded AFC East, and they are in good shape to steal pole position in the division following Allen’s below issues. Numbers-wise, Tua sits seventh in the NFL in yards per game, but No. 1 in yards per attempt. Turnovers have been a headache for other play-callers this season, but it hasn’t really affected the 24-year-old — over seven games, Tua has 15 touchdowns and only three interceptions.

So, what’s the focus heading into these playoff-deciding games? In the big picture — a healthy Allen keeping things interesting for Mahomes, even more magic from Jalen Hurts, and no more injuries for Tua, please.

Stay tuned.

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