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Giants vs. Seahawks Week 4: Who’s Got the Oddsmakers’ Edge on MNF?

This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research

Get set for Week 4’s capper with a big Seahawks vs. Giants prediction, plus the latest odds and betting insights from our friends at FanDuel.

The Seattle Seahawks will visit the New York Giants for a Monday night primetime game and look to remain undefeated at the Giant’s MetLife Stadium.

A close spread and fairly high projected game total should prove for this to be a competitive matchup. The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m EST and can be seen on ABC and ESPN.

The Giants entered the season with a somewhat sunny outlook. New York’s pre-season projected win total stood at 7.5, while their odds to make the playoffs came in at a solid +184. However, after putting up a goose egg against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1 (40-0 final score) and showing less than impressive qualities on both the offensive and defensive end, their playoff hopes look quite gloomy.

As it stands, the Giants are projected to win 6.5 games, and their playoff odds have collapsed to +410. Menacing away games against the AFC-powerhouse Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills are imminent for the G-Men, meaning a win at home tonight is necessary to keep them alive in any form of postseason talks.

The Seahawks’ projected preseason win total (8.5) has stood pat going into Week 4, but their playoff odds have taken a bit of a hit, going from -122 to +128 through three games.

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However, we can’t exactly pin this on Seattle’s performance, considering they have the disadvantage of going up against current Super Bowl-favorite and undefeated San Francisco 49ers for the NFC West division title. With a win tonight, Seattle could further hoist themself into the playoffs realm — even if their path will likely come at the hands of an NFC Wild Card game.

Let’s lock in for Monday Night Football with the latest odds and betting insights from FanDuel, plus a big Giants vs. Seahawks prediction.

Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants Odds, Spread, Total & Moneyline

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

  • Spread: Seahawks -1.5 (-112)
  • Total: 47.5
  • Moneyline: Giants +114 / Seahawks -134

Seahawks at Giants Week 4 Matchup Analysis

Despite the Seahawks only being favored by a point and a half, the numbers show that they have the clear upper hand in this matchup. According to numberFire’s nERD-based power rankings, Seattle enters the night with a middle-of-the-pack rank of 16th while New York sits far behind in the 30th spot.

Geno Smith has solidified himself as the preferred signal caller over Daniel Jones, though Jones’ numbers are undoubtedly impacted by that Week 1 rout at the hands of Dallas — as well as the lack of offensive weapons readily available with Saquon Barkley in limbo. Smith comes into Week 3 with the NFL’s fifth-best QB rating and seventh-highest expected points added among starting quarterbacks. Jones, meanwhile, trails far behind in this regard, suffering from the 21st-worst quarterback ranking and 25th-least expected points added.

Seattle and New York’s Venn diagram seem to intersect on the defensive end with both teams putting up poor efforts thus far. According to numberFire’s power rankings, the Seahawks’ defense ranks 25th, while the Giants rank 27th. Seattle comes into Week 4 with the 29th-worst ranked pass defense and 26th-ranked Adjusted Defensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, while New York ranks 27th and 30th, respectively, in this regard.

Given these numbers, we could be in for a bit of a shootout tonight, but it remains to be seen whether this is possible for Jones and the Giants.

The Giants’ receivers have, essentially, been rendered useless this season. In two out of three games, a Giant receiver has failed to eclipse over 36 receiving yards. Though offseason tight-end addition Darren Waller has been a tolerable offensive target, the fact that he leads the team in target market share speaks volumes.

It certainly doesn’t help that New York’s stud running back Barkley is listed as doubtful, making it even more imperative that a receiver steps up to the plate tonight. Seattle’s bottom-of-the-barrel pass defense ranking should aid in Jones getting things going early for his receivers, but make no mistake, the only way the Giants can stay in this game is if they see improvements from their offensive targets.

The Seahawks seem to be the more likely benefactor of these two teams’ defensive shortcomings. They have the best running back on the field in Kenneth Walker III, and Smith boasts receiving targets such as DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Metcalf was originally listed as questionable for this game and failed to practice last Thursday but has since been labeled as not carrying an injury designation. Seattle is 5-0 in their history at MetLife Stadium (including three wins against the Giants) and should be primed to continue this streak tonight.

Week 4 Seahawks vs. Giants Prop Bets

Kenneth Walker III Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Simply put, the Giants don’t know how to handle stud running backs. Not only are they ranked 21st in rush defense, but they have also given up sizable yardage to starting running backs in each game this season, including 70 rushing yards to Tony Pollard of the Cowboys, 85 rushing yards to San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey, and 106 rushing yards to Arizona’s James Conner.

Enter Seattle running back Kenneth Walker III, who is averaging 68 rushing yards per game coming into Week 4.

Not only does Walker boast the advantage of a weak defensive competition, but he also has seen a decent lack of carry competition. Second-string running back Zach Charbonnet has clocked in a total of 16 carries through three games, and given the close-natured expectation of this game, we can expect Walker to continue his monopolization of the Seattle run game.

There is a clear correlation between Walker’s performance and the rank of the rush defense he opposes. He rushed for 43 yards against the Detroit Lions (11th-ranked rush defense), 64 yards against the Los Angeles Rams (20th), and 97 yards against the Carolina Panthers (30th). Given the Giants’ status as a bottom-ranked rush defense, we can likely expect Walker to continue his trend of stomping on weak opponents.

The numberFire model anticipates Walker to rush for 71.44 yards tonight, leaving a nice chunk of wiggle room between expected yards and the line for this prop.

Matt Breida Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Despite Barkley’s expected absence for this game, I wouldn’t rely on any of the other New York running backs to pick up the slack.

Matt Breida has been a less-than-impressive run game option, rushing for a total of 31 yards on seven carries this season. He was a non-factor in last week’s game against the 49ers, and it seems unlikely that head coach Brian Daboll will turn to him in a major way tonight. In fact, we’ve already seen third-string running back Gary Brightwell get some play time, matching Breida with four carries last Thursday.

The Giants’ run game comes in against their stiffest rush defense competition yet. Despite Seattle’s overall defensive struggles, these weak spots have predominantly come in the passing game. The Seahawks are ranked 12th in rush defense while the Giants’ previous competition this season trails behind in this regard (49ers ranked 19th; Cowboys, 22nd; Arizona Cardinals, 28th).

If Breida failed to perform against weak rush defense teams, I don’t foresee him being a star in this game. Further, the Giants will likely look to exploit the Seahawks’ weak pass defense, which, in turn, will see to that Breida’s prioritization plummets.

Parris Campbell Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+600)

Predicting which New York Giant receiver will perform big is a bit of crapshoot at the moment, but stay with me on this one.

Offseason wide receiver addition Parris Campbell has stood in the same underperforming line as the rest of the Giants’ offensive targets, but the numbers show he could be primed to see the endzone tonight.

Campbell posts a 64.3% route rate and 16.7% target market share (third in both behind Darren Waller and Darius Slayton) and has seen an increase in receptions and yardage with each game this season, proving he will at least be a solid target option for Daniel Jones.

More than this, Campbell leads the Giants in red zone target market share at 33.3%. This, plus the fact that the Seahawks come in with the 29th-worst pass defense rating, emphasizes that if there is one game where the Jones-Campbell connection could work, it is this one.

Given Seattle’s pass defense woes, and the lack of running options for the Giants, we can reasonably expect New York’s receivers to get some decent looks tonight. Campbell’s numbers show he is a viable option for Jones, and arguably the best-value touchdown prop on the board tonight at +600.

— Annie Nader

Giants vs. Seahawks Prediction: NFL Week 4

The numberFire projection model lists a win probability slightly in Seattle’s favor on the road against the G-Men.

A spread of 1.5 points and an over/under of 47.5 total points implies a final score of approximately 24.5-23.

Week 4 Giants vs. Seahawks Prediction based on numberFire projection model
Week 4 Giants vs. Seahawks Prediction based on numberFire projection model

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