This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research
Lock into Week 3 with a big Giants vs. 49ers prediction, plus the latest props and betting insights from our friends at FanDuel.
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways — from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we’re going to focus on the former.
Utilizing numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some NFL player prop bets that look appealing.
Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season is here and we’re ready to kick off Thursday Night in the Bay Area! I’ll be bringing this article every Thursday along with a show on the “Covering the Spread” podcast feed to break things down.
Please note that betting lines and numberFire’s game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
George Kittle Any Time Touchdown (+190)
The 49ers are healthy 10.0-point favorites with the over/under sitting at a modest 44.0 points. This gives the 49ers a 27.0 implied team total this week, a great indication we should see plenty of scoring from them.
Let’s turn to George Kittle for an any time touchdown this week, as this is a great matchup for him.
Kittle comes in with a 17.3% target share, 11.3% air yards share, 16.7% red zone target share, while playing on 80.8% of the snaps, and running a route on 72.4% of dropbacks. These are all relatively modest numbers in the grand scheme of things, but we should anticipate those numbers increasing as the weeks go on.
Looking back to last season after Brock Purdy took over the starting quarterback role, Kittle had a 19.9% target share and 27.6% red zone target share. That red zone target share was tied for the highest on the team alongside the always-elite Christian McCaffrey.
The Giants are middle-of-the-road against tight ends this season, allowing the 15th most (99) yards and no touchdowns. However, they haven’t faced a tight end with the skill or pedigree of Kittle.
While Kittle hasn’t had a big role this season, there’s no cause for concern as he is a trusted option in their offense — especially when it comes to the red zone.
Darren Waller Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Next up, let’s take a look at the tight end on the other side of this game, Darren Waller.
The big news for the Giants this week is the health status of running back Saquon Barkley, who was injured at the end of last week’s game against the Arizona Cardinals. The initial report stated that Barkley is week-to-week and should miss a few games. Barkley didn’t practice on Tuesday but Giants’ head coach, Brian Daboll suggested that Barkley could be a game-time decision.
While this could be some smoke and mirrors so as to not give away their game plan, we need to account for what the Giants’ offense would look like in Barkley’s absence.
The Giants are 10.0-point underdogs, which should put them in a passing game script, the expectation for any team in this spot. This should lead to some correlation for receiving yards overs and thus, points us to Waller.
Through two games, Waller actually leads the Giants with a 20.3% target share, with Barkley tied for the second-highest at 17.2%. Removing a high-target option such as Barkley should only be a benefit for Waller. Of course, not all of that usage will go to Waller, but the favorite target of Daniel Jones is sure to see a boost.
Waller also comes in with an 8.6 average depth of target (aDOT), which is very important and a key part of this prop. An 8.6 aDOT isn’t that far down the field and should play well into what I’m expecting from this game, so let me explain.
The 49ers’ defense is elite, this is not news to anyone. Through two games this year, they have accumulated 34 quarterback pressures, which leads the league. That’s been their calling card for a few seasons, and it has led to them only allowing a 6.9 aDOT from opposing quarterbacks this season.
What does this all mean?
The 49ers are going to bring the pressure, which is going to cause Daniel Jones to get rid of the ball quickly, where he won’t have time to look downfield for a pass. Who will be sitting right underneath for an easy completion? Darren Waller.
If Barkley is going to miss this game, Waller should be the safety net for Jones, who will be under pressure from the 49ers’ front seven. Easy completions and yards for Waller should allow him to hit the over on this prop.
Parris Campbell Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Finally, under 29.5 receiving yards for the Giants‘ third-string wide receiver, Parris Campbell.
While the Giants are expected to be in a passing game script, there’s nothing that would suggest Campbell is in for a ton of production.
In the first two games, Campbell has a 15.6% target share and super low 3.7 aDOT, while playing on 65.9% of the snaps, and running a route on 75.3% of drop backs. This has led to a total of 10 targets, 5 receptions, and 23 receiving yards in two games.
That 65.9% snap rate is the third-highest among Giants’ wide receivers and generally isn’t on the field when the Giants are in two wide receiver sets. This isn’t a surprise, but players need to be on the field and play a ton of snaps to have a chance at racking up yards, which can’t be said about Campbell.
numberFire’s projections have Campbell going for 29.38 receiving yards, which has him hitting the under this week.
— Tom Vecchio
49ers vs. Giants Prediction: NFL Week 3
The numberFire projection model gives the Niners a 69.6% chance to win.
A spread of 10 points and a total of 44 at FanDuel Sportsbook implies a final score projection of approximately 27-17.
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