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Steelers vs. Titans Week 9: Who’s Got the Oddsmakers’ Edge on TNF?

Last Updated: November 2, 2023

This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research.

Lock in for Week 9 with the latest odds for Steelers vs. Titans, plus betting insights from our friends at FanDuel.

The Tennessee Titans (3-4) will visit the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) for Week 9’s edition of Thursday Night Football.

After losing Ryan Tannehill to an ankle injury, the Titans and rookie signal caller Will Levis turned some heads last week, beating the Atlanta Falcons as the home underdogs.

Not only did they walk away with a win, but Levis was absolutely stunning in his NFL debut, throwing four touchdowns off of 238 yards. The performance boosted him as a contender for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. According to the most recent numbers from FanDuel, he’s slotted in 8th at +3000.

Tonight, Tennessee will try to capitalize off of Sunday’s dominant performance as they look to secure their first road win of the season, but Levis will have to prove himself against a tough defense, and a lengthy injury report could make things shaky for the Titans.

The Steelers, meanwhile, will look to rebound following last week’s home loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Though Pittsburgh’s season has, more or less, turned out as expected thus far — their preseason 8.5-win total stands pat going into tonight, and their odds to make the playoffs stand at a chipper +172 — there have been some pretty significant inconsistencies.

Despite touting a winning record, the Steelers have a -34 point differential. Only one other NFL team with a winning record has a negative point differential (the New York Jets at -3), but it’s fairly modest compared to the how the Steelers fare in this regard. Even the Titans have managed to have only a -8 point differential despite their losing record, so perhaps the hype surrounding the Pittsburgh D is a tad overdone.

Get set to kick off Week 9 with a big Steelers vs. Titans prediction, plus the latest odds and prop betting insights from FanDuel.

Steelers vs. Titans Week 9 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

  • Spread: Steelers -2.5 (-118)
  • Total: 36.5
  • Moneyline:
    • Steelers: -154
    • Titans: +130

Steelers vs. Titans Week 9 Matchup Analysis

These two teams sit side-by-side in numberFire’s nERD-based power rankings: the Steelers come in at the 18th spot, while the Titans are 19th. Although this, and the spread, indicates they are somewhat neck-and-neck, each team touts much different strengths.

The Steelers’ offense is not great. They rank 27th by numberFire’s metrics and have yet to boast a consistent offensive threat not named George Pickens. Najee Harris has only reached the end zone once, and Kenny Pickett comes in with the sixth-worst Passing NEP among starting QBs. His company at the bottom includes Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, and Mac Jones. However, Diontae Johnson has been great in his last three games since returning from the IR, so they have the talent to turn it around.

The offense could make a splash tonight strictly based off of their competition. The Titans have the 21st-ranked defense and struggle particularly in the passing game, where they rank 25th. Now that Johnson is back in full stride and Pickett can pair this great target option with Pickens, we could see some decent work in the passing game — even if the game total is as low as it will get for Week 9.

Pittsburgh doesn’t come into the night with a whole lot of injury designations. Pickett was limited in practice earlier this week with a rib injury, but is good to go for Thursday. They will be without their First-team All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, which will undoubtedly hurt things on the defensive end, but the team as a whole is less roughed-up than Tennessee.

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Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins, Josh Whyle, and Chris Moore round out the Titans’ offensive injuries. Henry, Whyle, and Moore were full practice participants on Wednesday and should be good to go tonight, but Hopkins is dealing with turf toe and failed to practice yesterday. As of Thursday morning, he is expected to play.

This is great news for Will Levis, who will need all the help he can get against a sixth-ranked Pittsburgh defense. Levis is definitely the biggest question mark on either side of the field. He shined against an Atlanta defense that is giving up the eighth-least passing yards per game. Meanwhile, the Steelers, despite their defensive laurels, give up a whopping 245.4 passing yards per game, which is ninth-worst in the league.

But even though the fact that the Steelers do not rank in the top 15 of either rushing or passing yards allowed per game may suggest that their reputation only precedes them, they do have the second-most takeaways in the league and have forced more fumbles than any other team.

Given this and the fact that Levis is coming off short rest and will face an intimidating Pittsburgh crowd for his first away game, I have to imagine that this gives the Steelers a pretty major edge. But, if Levis can handle his business and come out on top against Pittsburgh, Tannehill’s days in Tennessee may be numbered.

Steelers vs. Titans Prop Bets: NFL Week 9

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

A low game total, inexperienced starting quarterback, and reputable Pittsburgh D leaves us with a few undervalued Tennessee receiving props, and I think the most grave instance of this comes with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.

NWI has cleared the over on this prop in five out of seven games this season. He’s averaging 28.7 receiving yards each week –- closer to double the line for tonight than the actual line.

His 13.4% target share (fourth on the team) is nothing to brag about, but 17 yards is a low bar to clear for someone who is on the field for 71.7% of snaps (most on team) –- especially when you factor in that his average depth of target (aDOT) is 10.7.

Hopkins’ potential limitations could swing the NWI door open even further, but it shouldn’t be necessary to secure the over here.

numberFire’s model anticipates NWI to reel in 27.46 receiving yards tonight.

George Pickens Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

After a rough game this past Sunday, George Pickens should be able to bounce back against a Tennessee D that allows some pretty hefty yardage to wide receivers (188.29 yards per game). With this line, we can get the over on a bit of a discount.

Pickens has cleared the over on this prop in four out of seven games and is averaging 74.6 receiving yards per game.

He’s playing in 89.9% of snaps and running 95.6% of routes (leads the team in both). He also touts a 27.1% weighted target share, 41.6% air yard share, and 13.8 aDOT –- leading all Steeler players in this respect.

In the two games this season where Pickens failed to surpass 75 yards, he followed up both performances by eclipsing 125 yards. numberFire’s model forecasts him to grab 61.53 receiving yards tonight, leaving some decent wiggle room between this line and the projection.

— Annie Nader

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