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How Much Could Justin Herbert’s Contract Extension Be Worth?

Through 40 career starts, the Chargers QB sits at an even 20-20 record while breaking franchise records in the process. Boardroom projects the size of Justin Herbert’s first contract extension.

The 2020 NFL Draft was stacked with quarterbacks — headlined by Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert — most of whom are eligible for huge extensions this offseason.

First, Boardroom took a look at what JHurts’ market value is and it’s somewhere around the $260 million range. Then, we looked at Tua’s and it was around the $225 million range.

Now, we’re ready to dive into Chargers QB Justin Herbert, selected with the No. 6 pick in 2020, who won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2020 and transformed the organization from bottom-feeders to Super Bowl contenders. In 2021, he broke franchise records by throwing for 5,014 passing yards and 38 touchdowns, making his first Pro Bowl roster in Year 2.

It’s been a weird 2022 season for Herbert, however. He suffered a fractured rib cartilage in a Week 2 loss to the Chiefs and needed a pain-killing injection to play in Week 3. Meanwhile, his two most-targeted receivers — Keenan Allen and Mike Williams — have both been out the majority of the season.

Despite an injury-riddled campaign, LA is only one game behind the first-place Chiefs in the AFC West at 5-3 and Herbert is the main reason, throwing 13 touchdowns (No. 9 in the NFL) for 2,254 yards (No. 5) with 233 completions (No. 3).

The Chargers have been nothing more than an average team (20-20) since he became the starting QB, but there’s zero doubt about their potential with No. 10 at the helm. It’s really just a matter of health. Otherwise, he’s played himself into a huge payday — much like Hurts and Tua.

Let’s take a look at his comparable market value for the 2023 offseason.

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What Is Justin Herbert’s 2023 Market Value?

Spotrac determines its own market value estimates based on a player’s age, contract status, and statistical production. It doesn’t take into account wins, awards, injuries, or playoff performance, but it’s a useful measuring stick when comparing other players’ contracts.

In Herbert’s case, he might become one of the richest QBs in the league by total value at 24 years old.

Projecting the size of a Justin Herbert contract extension
  • By Spotrac’s estimates, a first Justin Herbert contract extension is pegged at six years and $254,485,788. That would rank No. 3 in NFL history in terms of total value behind Patrick Mahomes ($450M) and Josh Allen ($258M).
  • His average annual salary is projected at $42,414,298, which would rank seventh — one spot behind Allen and one ahead of Derek Carr.
Comparable QBs by Value
PLAYERYRST/VALAAVAGE/SGN
Mahomes10$450M$45M24
J. Allen6$258M$43M25
K. Murray5$230.5M$46.1M24
D. Watson5$230M$46M26
Averages6.5$292M$44.9M24.8
Comparable QBs by Stats
PLAYERGP%YDS/GTD/GCMP%RTG
Mahomes93.8304.32.565.988.7
Allen100238.51.86477.3
Murray90.9258.61.768.283.6
Watson96.9279.81.968.786.5
Average95.4270.31.9766.784.0

To be clear, Herbert is simply eligible for an extension following the 2022 season. It doesn’t necessarily mean the Bolts will fast-track the process. They could wait until his first free agency a year later, at which point the franchise tag will very much be on the table, kicking the can down the road one more year.

It doesn’t make much sense to hold off on securing a QB of Herbert’s caliber, though. Why even risk it? Lock him up while you can. He still has plenty to prove, especially since the Chargers haven’t made the postseason with him under center just yet. That said, the four-year postseason drought should end this season.

Regardless, the team’s season outcome shouldn’t change how much money he gets in an extension. Bring in the Brink’s truck.

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