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NFL MVP Odds Entering Week 14: Jalen Hurts Closes in

A loss against the Bengals still sees Patrick Mahomes retaining the top spot, but a path has cleared for a serious challenger.

The Kansas City Chiefs finally have an AFC Rival. Surprisingly, it’s still not the Buffalo Bills.

For the third time in 2022 dating back to the end of the previous regular season, Patrick Mahomes was beaten by Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. Only the fifth loss for Kansas City this calendar year, the defeat knocked them out of the No. 1 AFC playoff seed and the guaranteed a first-round bye that comes with it. Instead, the Bills (9-3) would have that privilege if the postseason began today.

Buffalo defeated Kansas City in October, handing the Bills a valuable tiebreaker in the AFC playoff seeding race. Will Buffalo lose at least, say, two more contests this year? It’s possible, but the Chiefs are better off focusing on winning out and getting themselves back toward controlling their own destiny; dropping another result could potentially send Patrick Mahomes & Co. further down the ladder depending on how the Bengals (Buffalo’s Week 15 opponent) and Baltimore Ravens perform moving forward.

All told, Cincinnati holds a tiebreaker over Kansas City, while the Ravens are now just one game back of the Chiefs in the standings.

So, did this Week 13 defeat affect Patrick Mahomes’ chances at the MVP trophy? It’s far from a doomsday scenario, but Showtime doesn’t hold the same kind of wide margin as he did the previous few weeks.

Here’s a glance at the updated odds entering Week 14, powered by FanDuel Sportsbook.

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2022 NFL MVP Odds: Week 14

All odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Dec. 6 following the conclusion of Week 13 and are subject to change.

Mahomes is still the overall favorite, but Jalen Hurts could make things interesting. In a 35-10 rout against the Tennessee Titans, the Eagles signal-caller completed 29 passes on 39 attempts for 380 yards and three touchdowns. Since Week 6, Hurts has recorded seven consecutive games with a passer rating of at least 94, which leads all QBs this season.

The win against Kansas City didn’t just give the Bengals some much-needed confidence entering the final five weeks; Burrow’s performance also moved him into a third-place ranking, notably ahead of both Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen. Last week, Burrow was in fifth place with +1700 odds for the NFL’s top individual prize. Entering Week 14, he’s now at +900. The Browns, Buccaneers, and Patriots are all manageable opponents, but Cincy’s final two games come against the Bills and Ravens and carry real postseason implications.

One final change worth noting from last week’s MVP odds? Seattle’s Geno Smith cracking the top six. The nine-year vet is playing some of the best football in his career, narrowly escaping three straight losses thanks to a career-high 367 passing yards and three touchdowns, including the game-winner with 41 seconds left. A clutch moment from an unlikely player now gives Seahawks fans some morale as the playoffs near. At 7-5, Seattle fills the seventh seed in the NFC due to a superior winning percentage over the 7-5-1 Washington Commanders.

Could Smith’s Cinderella season ultimately stretch past the regular season? Possibly, but a Christmas Eve date against the Chiefs looms large.

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