The Raiders running back has rushed for 441 yards and six touchdowns in the last three games. Will his resurgence in Las Vegas lead to a bigger payday this offseason?
Josh Jacobs said he didn’t have a problem when the Raiders declined his fifth-year option worth $8 million this past offseason. But it might become a problem for Las Vegas this summer.
Jacobs has emerged as one of the league’s top running backs in the span of three weeks. The steamrolling back is set to hit the unrestricted free agent market in the 2023 offseason, joining the likes of Saquon Barkley and Kareem Hunt as some of the most coveted backs around the league.
Las Vegas committed $566.6 million in salary to its roster this offseason, a figure that ranks No. 2 in the NFL after only the reigning Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams. The team inked multi-year deals with Davante Adams, Derek Carr, Darren Waller, and Maxx Crosby.
But not Jacobs.
Among all Raiders (excluding Carr), Jacobs leads the team in touchdowns (6) and total yards (633). Across the league, he’s right there with the best of the best. Note: Jacobs’ bye week already passed, so he has one less game under his belt than most players in the top 10.
| Category | RB Rank |
| TDs: 6 | T-2nd |
| Rush Yards: 633 | 3rd |
| YDS/G: 105.5 | 2nd |
| 1st Downs: 36 | 1st |
| Attempts: 111 | 5th |
| Fantasy (PPR): 133.4 | 4th |
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What Changed?
More carries: Jacobs was averaging only 14 attempts, 64 YPG, and accumulated zero touchdowns through the first three bouts of the season. Since then, he’s averaging 23 attempts, 147.3 YPG, and has scored six TDs — including three in a Week 7 victory against the Texans.
Offensive line: The Raiders lead the NFL with 5.7 adjusted line yards per carry (also Jacobs’ average). No other offense in the league is averaging more than 5.1, per Aaron Schatz. Additionally, the Raiders’ backs have only been stopped for a loss or no gain just 11% of the time — second behind Green Bay.
Market Value
Comparable market value players provided by Spotrac
Based on similar comparisons among the running back market value and statistics, Jacobs’ worth is currently estimated somewhere around four years, $47,106,260 with an average annual salary of $11,776,565 following the 2021 season.
- In terms of the total contract value, he’d be the eighth-highest-paid RB in the league after Aaron Jones at that mark.
- In terms of AAV, he’d be the ninth-highest-paid back in the league, also after Jones.
Comparable By Stats
| Player | Year Signed | YDS/G | TD/GM |
| A. Jones | 2020 | 72.93 | .83 |
| J. Conner | 2021 | 52.61 | .75 |
| D. Cook | 2019 | 70 | .60 |
| J. Mixon | 2019 | 76.8 | .43 |
Comparable By Value
| Player | Length | Value | AAV |
| Jones | 4 | $48M | $12M |
| Conner | 3 | $21M | $7M |
| Cook | 5 | $63M | $12.6M |
| Mixon | 4 | $48M | $12M |
Again, these numbers and values do not include 2022 stats. Jacobs’ value should increase if he continues to dominate the way he has of late.
Additionally, as NFL revenue increases, so does a team’s salary cap. Expect this all to factor in when discussing his market value. The number provided above is a good estimate, but it doesn’t factor in the surge, age, and value to the team.
After starting the season 0-3, the Raiders are 2-1 in their last three games, each of which Jacobs garnered 20+ carries. And while the other big names in Sin City (Adams) get most of the attention, it’s Jacobs, who should be regarded as one of the best running backs in the game, who is the latest pro sports player to break out in a contract year.
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