This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research.
Get set for Week 6 with a big Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction, plus the latest odds and betting insights from FanDuel.
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways — from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we’re going to focus on the former.
Utilizing numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some NFL player prop bets that look appealing.
Broncos vs. Raiders Best Bets: Player Props
Patrick Mahomes Under 272.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Week 6 starts on Thursday Night with the Kansas City Chiefs as 10.5-point home favorites against the Denver Broncos.
There are two main notes for this game starting with star tight end, Travis Kelce dealing with an ankle injury, and is limited in practice this week. The next note would be with the weather, where the wind will be sustained at 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph, and some rain.
The weather can always impact how games play out and with higher wind, we often see teams stick to shorter passes or the run game. Add in the game script with the Chiefs as large home favorites, and it leads us to Patrick Mahomes under 272.5 passing yards.
If the Chiefs are out in front by multiple scores, they won’t need to push the ball downfield that much, and will be able to control the clock. This is nothing new and often leads to quarterbacks ending with rather modest yardage totals.
For Mahomes, he’s been under this 272.5 mark in three of the five games this season, where two of those three games occurred when the Chiefs were 8.0-point favorites and 12.5-point favorites.
If Kelce isn’t able to play or plays and isn’t at 100% health, the offensive efficiency for the Chiefs will be lacking. The wind won’t be doing him any favors either, and when we add all of this up, it should lead to under 272.5 passing yards for Mahomes.
Isiah Pacheco Longest Rush Over 16.5 Yards (-114)
Isiah Pacheco has the factual easiest matchup for running backs this week.
That’s right, the Broncos have allowed the most (821) rushing yards to opposing running backs this season, which is 142 yards worse than the second-worst team.
What I mentioned above about Travis Kelce’s health and the weather both play into this prop as well. The high wind/rain can often lead to teams running the ball a bit more, which is only good news for Pacheco with this soft matchup.
To this point in the season, Pacheco has broken off long runs of 17, 18, 31, and 48 yards. The Denver defense has allowed long runs of 20, 24, 27, 52, 67, and 72 yards.
This is a juicy matchup for Pacheco, who continues to lead the Chiefs’ backfield with a 52.3% snap rate and handling 51% of the team’s rushing attempts. He is the main option for their rushing offense and that should be put on full display this week.
Russell Wilson Under 33.5 Passing Attempts (-108)
An ineffective offense leads to shorter drives and a lack of volume.
That’s what we have with the Broncos’ offense, who have been all over the place this season. There have been times when they look like the league’s worst team and times when they are firing on all cylinders and moving the ball well.
A lack of consistency is never a spot I want to look at the over, so under 33.5 passing attempts for Russell Wilson is the play.
Wilson has been under this mark in three of the five games this season, with the other two games being at 34 and 38 passing attempts.
For the third time, I’ll mention the potential weather issues for this game, which can negatively impact the passing game. This is where we see teams turn to the running game, taking time off the clock, and attempts out of the quarterback’s hands.
Denver should have a bit of a boost to their running game with Javonte Williams fully back at practice after missing last week’s game.
This should all lead to fewer passing attempts for Wilson, making under 33.5 the spot to go.
— Tom Vecchio
Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction: NFL Week 6
The numberFire projections model gives the Chiefs a significant 86.1% chance of victory against Denver.
A spread of 10.5 points and a total of 47.5 implies a final score of approximately 29-18.5.
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