Get the latest odds and picks for Monday’s Stanley Cup Finals Game 3 with our Lightning vs. Avalanche betting primer via FanDuel Sportsbook.
We’ve seen two very different games so far in the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals.
In Game 2, Colorado didn’t let Tampa Bay linger, notching three goals in the first period and two more in the final two periods to blank Tampa Bay 7-0.
Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
2022 NHL Stanley Cup Finals Game 3
Lightning Moneyline (-106) : 1 star
Lightning Puckline (+1.5; -275): 1 star
NOTE: Stars represent how much numberFire recommends risking on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
Our NHL betting model is showing slight value on the Lightning to strike and pick up a win. They are considered 52.1% likely to get the series to 2-1.
Though they were exposed in Game 2, Tampa Bay is still the sixth-best team in the NHL via our power ratings and hold a 27-8-6 home record this season. They’ve earned 73.2% of points in home games in the regular season to rank sixth, and in the playoffs, they’re 7-1-0.
Of course, for as good as the Lightning have been at home, the Avalanche have been about as good on the road. They’re 24-14-3 away from Denver, good for a top-10 rate in points percentage (62.2%).
As for the history, it’s undecided.
Since 2017 (excluding the bubble season), home teams down 2-0 in a playoff series have been favored at a 79.2% rate but won at just a 48.0% clip despite holding a +0.44 goal differential overall. Though the win rate is a little lower than we’d like, the goal differential remains promising.
Though the Avalanche are scoring in flurries, they are overachieving a bit. MoneyPuck indicates they’ve got 13.4 goals for above expecation in the playoffs and thus their 3.90 goals for per 60 minutes should be closer to 2.85.
For the Lightning, they’re scoring 2.07 goals for per 60 minutes but should be at 2.63, thus narrowing the gap between the two sides.
And as far as the scoring conversation goes, it’s worth noting that Andrei Vasilevskiy is still having a good playoff run based on expectations. Though he’s allowed 50 goals, that’s 8.1 fewer than expected, and he ranks fifth in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes among 17 goalies with at least five playoff starts.
Darcy Kuemper ranks 15th of those 17 and has allowed 3.5 more goals than expected.