Can Kyle Schwarber Make $100 Million as a Three True Outcome Player?

The Philadelphia Phillies’ designated hitter is elite at hitting home runs and walking at age 32. Is that enough for a triple-digit contract?

Kyle Schwarber is a major threat every time he steps to the plate. As of Thursday, the 32-year-old Philadelphia Phillies‘ two-time All-Star sits just behind Dodgers MVP Shohei Ohtani for the National League lead with 19 home runs and is statistically among the hardest-hitting sluggers in the game.

The lefty is also as vital to the Phils’ success as any player on their roster. As 37-23 Philly competes for the NL’s best record, Schwarber has 15 dingers and an otherworldly 1.044 OPS in wins and just four homers and a still strong .831 OPS in losses. The problem is that Schwarber doesn’t do much else besides draw walks and hit baseballs over fences in ballparks across the U.S.

FTC, Flight team stand up … It’s JUUUUUUNE!

Enter June Kyle Schwarber. pic.twitter.com/zXuS6MVVua
— MLB (@MLB) June 1, 2025

A whopping one-third of Schwarber’s 57 hits this season are home runs, a percentage that’s matched by Ohtani, except that he has four more round-trippers, seven more stolen bases, and 20 more runs scored. Schwarber is also among the league leaders in walk percentage at 16.2% of his plate appearances, with more than 40% of his trips to the plate resulting in a walk or a strikeout. Schwarber is among the last of a dying breed as what’s known as a Three True Outcome player, someone who largely only either hits home runs, walks, or strikes out. He also doesn’t really play defense either, having served as Philadelphia’s designated hitter in 56 of the 60 games he’s played in so far this season.

A free agent at the end of the season, Schwarber may command a $100 million contract even though he only has a couple of real elite skills, walking and hitting homers. Is his one-dimensional skill set worth what he’ll want this offseason?

The short answer: Yes.

Schwarber’s abilities to hit the ball really hard and draw walks largely override his high strikeout rate, his propensity to swing at pitches out of the strike zone, and his lack of any defensive value. As you can see in the Statcast data above, his average exit velocity, bat speed, barrel rate, walk rate, and expected on-base and slugging numbers are all well above the 90th percentile. His wins above replacement of 2.3 is tied for the team lead with ace pitcher Zack Wheeler, per Baseball-Reference, ahead of more popular All-Star teammates like Bryce Harper and Trea Turner.

There are certainly risks involved in giving Schwarber a big contract. Among his current MLB peers, no designated hitter has earned a nine-figure total contract except for Ohtani, who’s clearly an exception who may one day return to the mound as a pitcher and the ultimate antithesis of a one-dimensional player.

The Boston Red Sox signed Japanese star Masataka Yoshida to a five-year, $90 million deal prior to the 2023 season, and he was mainly a DH last season, dealing with a shoulder injury that was surgically repaired when he was found to have a torn labrum that has prevented him from making his 2025 debut. To date, the 31-year-old has 25 home runs and an above-average .775 OPS in 248 career games, but he’s not someone who inspires confidence in giving a DH a significant, long-term contract.

Houston Astros three-time All-Star Yordan Álvarez is primarily a designated hitter now, at 27 years old, in the third year of a six-year, $115 million deal that buys out his three arbitration years. He would’ve hit free agency after this season, going into his age-29 campaign, earning a similar annual average salary over the next three years, $26.8 million, that Schwarber may seek over the winter. Alvarez has missed the last month with an injured right hand, an ailment Houston hopes doesn’t linger for the remainder of the deal.

There are enough red flags out there to deter Philadelphia from offering Schwarber the going market rate for someone with his offensive abilities, despite the type of production he’s been putting up. Paying him into his mid-30s when he’s one injury away from his value cratering, though, is a risk some team is likely to take even if it isn’t the Phillies. They may have bigger fish to fry this offseason, with All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto and top pitcher Ranger Suarez also hitting free agency.

While Schwarber has very few skills, they’re powerful and elite, even in his 30s, when other veteran players designated hitters who don’t play the field are breaking down due to injury. Is that enough for him to earn one final massive bag this offseason?