This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research.
Where’s the smart money going on TNF? Check out a big Vikings vs. Eagles prediction and the latest odds and prop bet insights from our friends at FanDuel.
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways — from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we’re going to focus on the former. Utilizing numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props bets that look appealing.
Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season is here and we kick off Thursday night between the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings! I’ll be bringing this article every Thursday along with a show on the Covering the Spread podcast feed to break things down.
Let’s lock in for TNF with a big Eagles vs. Vikings prediction and the latest odds and betting insights from FanDuel and numberFire.
Eagles vs. Vikings Prediction & Prop Bets Overview: NFL Week 2
NOTE: Betting lines and numberFire’s game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Eagles WR A.J. Brown Any Time Touchdown (+110)
The Eagles come in as 7.0-point favorites and see the over/under up at 49.5 points, so let’s dive into some player props.
We’ll start with AJ Brown any time touchdown, as he looks to find the endzone for the first time this season. In Week 1, Brown finished a solid 10 targets, 7 receptions, and 79 yards, which have become the norm for his elite skillset.
That production came via Brown playing on 90.2% of snaps, running a route on 91.7% of dropbacks, 33.3% target share, 61.4% air yards share, and 17.8 average depth of target (aDOT).
While this is a one-game sample size, it’s not too far off from what he posted last season with an 85.1% snap rate, running a route on 92.1% of dropbacks, 29.0% target share, 41.7% air yards share, and 12.2 aDOT.
Brown essentially started the season where he left off last year but wasn’t able to find the endzone in Week 1.
When it comes to the Vikings’ defense, they only allowed 135 receiving yards to wide receivers in Week 1 but allowed a pair of touchdowns. This shouldn’t be too much of a surprise as the Vikings had the 25th-ranked secondary coming into the season, according to Pro Football Focus.
Brown has an elite role in the Eagles’ offense and a strong matchup to find the endzone for the first time this year.
Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
With the Vikings coming in as 7.0-point underdogs, they might turn to the passing game to keep things close.
If there’s one thing the Vikings like to do it’s pass the ball at a high rate. In Week 1, they held a 73.02% pass play percentage, which was the second-highest in the league. Yes, a one-game sample size is nothing to write home about, but in reality, it’s what we should be seeing from them this year.
In 2022, the Vikings ended with a 64.38% pass play percentage, which was the third-highest in the league. So, they’re right on pace with what we’ve seen from them in the past. If they can’t get the running game going, they immediately turn to the passing game early and often.
Given the game lines, they are expected to play from behind as 7.0-point road underdogs. This means plenty of volume for the pass-catchers and it leads us to tight end, TJ Hockenson. The Vikings gave Hockenson a big extension at the end of training camp this year, so they’re committed to having him around long-term.
Hockenson ended Week 1 with a 20.5% target share while playing on 74.6% of the snaps and running a route on 78.3% of dropbacks.
While the Eagles’ defense is very strong, they struggled a bit in Week 1 against the New England Patriots’ tight ends, allowing them to pile up 92 receiving yards.
Last year, the Eagles were 14th in the league with 801 receiving yards allowed to opposing tight ends, which was good for 47.1 yards per game.
The Vikings should be looking to pass the ball and keep the game close, putting Hockenson in a spot to rack up plenty of yards.
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Vikings RB Alexander Mattison Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
From the Vikings’ passing game to their running game and under 49.5 rushing yards for Alexander Mattison.
This essentially correlates with the Hockenson prop above due to the expected game script with the Vikings as 7.0-point underdogs. If they are forced into passing the ball more — something they do at a high rate anyway — they won’t be in a position to run the ball again and again.
Mattison is the clear lead back for the Vikings but didn’t get off to a good start this season with just 34 rushing yards on 11 carries in Week 1. That was good for 3.1 yards per attempt, putting him 34th in the league after one week.
When it comes to the Eagles’ defense, they ended last season with the 11th fewest (1,500) rushing yards allowed to running backs. They picked up right where they left off with just 54 rushing yards allowed to the Patriots running backs in Week 1 or 2.8 yards per attempt.
Between the Vikings’ play-calling tendencies, the game script, and the solid defense, this does not set up to be a big game for Mattison, and under 49.5 rushing yards is the spot to look.
— Tom Vecchio
Week 2 Vikings vs. Eagles Prediction & Odds
According to numberFire’s projections model, the Eagles have a win probability of just over 72%.
This is based on 48.5 total points between the two teams, implied as a 27.5-21 advantage in favor of Philadelphia.
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