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Eagles vs. Buccaneers Week 3: Where’s the Smart Money Going on MNF?

This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research

Get set for Monday night in Tampa with a big Bucs vs. Eagles prediction, plus the latest props and betting insights from our friends at FanDuel.

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways — from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we’re going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some NFL player prop bets that look appealing as Monday Night Football heads to Raymond James Stadium, and stay tuned for a big Eagles vs. Bucs prediction.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire’s game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

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Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin Any Time Touchdown (+220)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers play host to the Philadelphia Eagles for one of the two Monday Night games to close out Week 2.

The Bucs come in as 4.5-point home underdogs, where the over/under is at a solid 44.5 points, both of which we can use to direct us towards some props.

We’ll start with Chris Godwin any time touchdown at strong odds up at +220. Through two games, Godwin has yet to find the endzone, but he has very strong metrics we want to trust.

Godwin comes in with a 21.9% target share and 27.6% air yards share, both of which are the second-highest on the team behind Mike Evans. Godwin is playing on 79.4% of the snaps while running a route on 88.4% of dropbacks, both of which are higher than Evans.

He also comes in with a team-high 42.9% red zone target share, which is the highest on the team by a considerable margin. The next highest players for the Bucs are tied at 14.3% red zone target share. It’s only a two-game sample size but it’s good to see Godwin is being targeted in the scoring area.

While the Eagles are known for their strong defense, they’ve allowed four passing touchdowns to wide receivers over the first two weeks.

If the Bucs are expected to play from behind as 4.5-point underdogs, it should put them in a passing game script, a benefit for Godwin and his touchdown prop tonight.

Eagles WR A.J. Brown Over 25.5 Yards Longest Reception (-114)

AJ Brown is one of the best wide receivers in the league and is always capable of breaking off big plays.

Brown hasn’t posted eye-popping box score numbers yet this season but he has very strong underlying metrics suggesting he is due for a big game.

Brown comes in with a 29.4% target share, which is tied for the highest on the team alongside DeVonta Smith. This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, they are the clear top options in the Eagles’ passing offense.

Brown also carries a 46.8% air yards share and 15.1 average depth of target (aDOT), both of which lead the Eagles. His big-play ability is clear and was able to exceed this mark in 12 of 17 games last season.

When it comes to the Buccaneers’ defense, they have been off to a modest start this season, but have still been beaten by long passes. Over the first two weeks, the Bucs’ secondary has allowed long receptions of 42, 39, 33, and 23 yards.

This should allow Brown to get down the field and break off big chunks of yards, which would put him over 25.5 yards longest reception.

Buccaneers WR Rachaad White Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Finally, a simple receiving prop for Buccaneers’ running back Rachaad White.

One thing is clear for the Buccaneers’ backfield this season — Rachaad White is the main option. Among running backs, White leads the way with a 76.5% snap rate, while running a route on 66.7% of dropbacks. The next running back is at an 18.4% snap rate and 14.5% route running rate.

White is the clear top option and that has translated to a 10.9% target share, with the next running back at a 3.1% target share. You get the point. White is the main guy and there is no real secondary option.

If the Bucs are going to be playing from behind as 4.5-point underdogs, the passing game should take center stage. It’s also worth noting that White has a -3.4 aDOT. That’s right, a negative aDOT.

This is important since the Eagles on the other side come in with 33 quarterback pressures, which is the third-best in the league. They have only played two games yet sit among the league leaders.

If Baker Mayfield is going to be under pressure, he won’t have time to look downfield for pass-catchers and will have to settle for easy checkdowns.

This should put White in a great spot to pick up some easy yards and hit the over on his prop tonight.

— Tom Vecchio

Eagles vs. Bucs Prediction: NFL Week 3

The numberFire projection model gives the Eagles a significant win probability on the road against the Buccaneers.

A spread of 5 points and an over/under of 44.5 total points implies a final score of approximately 24.75-19.75.

Bucs vs. Eagles prediction from numberFire projections model for Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season

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