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Commanders vs. Bears Week 5: Who Has the Oddsmakers’ Edge on TNF?

Last Updated: October 5, 2023

This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research

Get ready for Thursday Night Football with three prop bets to know in this week’s clash, plus a Commanders vs. Bears prediction, from our friends at FanDuel.

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways — from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we’re going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some NFL player prop bets that look appealing, plus a big Bears vs. Commanders prediction.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire’s game projections may change after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

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Commanders vs. Bears Prop Bets: TNF Week 5

Terry McLaurin Any Time Touchdown (+145)

What better way to kick off the spookiest month of the year than a touchdown from Scary Terry?

Scary Terry of course being Terry McLaurin of the Washington Commanders, who are 5.5-point home favorites against the Chicago Bears this Thursday, with a modest over/under at 44.5.

The home Commanders have a 25.25 implied team total and let’s roll with their top receiver, McLaurin, for a touchdown this week.

McLaurin comes in with a 19.8% target share and 26.2% air yard share, both of which are the highest on the team. This has led to a total of 26 targets, 21 receptions, 212 receiving yards, and a single touchdown which came in Week 2.

However, through four games, McLaurin has a 0.0% red zone target share. Yup, he’s yet to be targeted in the red zone.

Ultimately, it’s only four weeks and I’m not overly worried since last year he held a team-high 19.1% red zone target share. McLaurin is the best wide receiver on the Commanders, and a bit of offensive inefficiency and small sample size could be to blame this season.

When it comes to the Bears’ defense, they have not been good to start the season and are currently allowing the fourth-most yards per game (267.8) and the second-most yards per pass attempt (8.4).

Washington should be able to move the ball via the passing game, putting McLaurin in a favorable spot to find the end zone this week.

Justin Fields Over 189.5 Passing Yards (-114)

The Bears’ offense can be a bit all over the place at times, but Justin Fields’ passing is their best option to move the ball.

On the season, the Bears have a total of 476 rushing yards through four games, which is the 13th most in the league. At face value, that seems decent, but in reality, they are horrible at running the ball.

Justin Fields has 134 rushing yards this season, so if we remove his rushing total from the team’s total, the Bears have a total of 342 rushing yards. That is good for the sixth-lowest in the league, meaning they can’t actually run the ball effectively.

I say all of that about their rushing offense to paint the picture of their offense and what actually works best, which isn’t running the ball.

Giving the ball to Fields and letting him throw is what’s best for their offense and that should be the focus this week. The Commanders’ defense has allowed 977 passing yards this season or 244.3 yards per game.

Fields has crossed this 189.5-yard mark in three of the four games this season, highlighted by 335 yards last week.

Do I expect him to hit 300 passing yards again? No, but with the Bears as 5.5-point underdogs, they should be in a pass-heavy game script, allowing Fields to rack up yards through the air.

Brian Robinson Over 65.5 Rushing yards (-114)

Finally, over 65.5 rushing yards for Brian Robinson of the Washington Commanders.

While the Commanders have a bit of a split snap share between Brian Robinson (52.0%) and Antonio Gibson (44.9%), it’s clear Robinson is the main rushing option.

Through four games, Robinson has 61 rushing attempts to only 13 for Gibson. If the Commanders are running the ball, Robinson is going to be the one they turn to, full stop.

This has led to Robinson exceeding this 65.5-yard mark in two of four outings this season and falling just short in Week 1 with 59 yards. Robinson also does so somewhat effectively with 4.3 yards per attempt, which is the 18th-best in the league among running backs.

He’s not in elite territory but that is certainly very solid and it should be on display against the Bears, who have allowed the 11th most (384) rushing yards to running backs this season.

The Commanders are 5.5-point favorites, which should have them playing from ahead and in a spot to run the ball and control the clock.

numberFire’s projections have Robinson going for 76.3 rushing yards, which has him hitting the over on this prop.

— Tom Vecchio

Bears vs. Commanders Prediction: NFL Week 4

The numberFire projections model gives the Commanders a significant 65% win probability on Thursday night.

A spread of 6 points and a total of 44.5 implies a final score of approximately 25.25-19.25.

Bears vs. Commanders prediction based on numberFire projection

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