This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research
Get set for this week’s SNF nightcap with a big Jets vs. Chiefs prediction, plus the latest insights and *bespoke Taylor Swift-inspired prop bets* from our friends at FanDuel.
The Kansas City Chiefs, who come off back-to-back wins, look to extend their winning streak on the road against the New York Jets on Sunday Night Football.
Before the 2023 season, this matchup was circled on the SNF slate. Both teams were drawing Super Bowl buzz as contenders in the AFC. Then, disaster struck in New York.
Aaron Rodgers suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in Week 1, likely ending the Jets’ Super Bowl aspirations. Of course, you probably already knew that — unless you’re living under a rock.
Jets fans are now suffering through more Zach Wilson. Since their season-opening win over the Buffalo Bills, New York has lost back-to-back games, including a 20-point defeat in Week 2. The Chiefs are rolling into Week 4 following an imposing 41-10 win over the Chicago Bears.
Due to Rodgers’ injury, the point spread has ballooned to 9.5 with Kansas City tabbed as heavy favorites. FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL odds have the Chiefs (2-1) priced at -405 on the moneyline. Can the Jets (1-2) make this primetime matchup competitive?
Let’s lock in for SNF with a big Chiefs vs. Jets prediction, plus the latest odds and betting insights from FanDuel.
Please note that betting lines and numberFire’s game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
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Week 4 Chiefs vs. Jets Odds, Spread, Total, and Moneyline
- Spread: Chiefs -9.5 (-105)
- Total: 41.5
- Moneyline: Chiefs -405 / Jets +320
New York Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Analysis
A quick look at statistics immediately shows why Kansas City is a big-time favorite. According to numberFire’s nERD-based power rankings, the Chiefs are ranked 4th while the Jets are 21st.
There should be a long list of advantages for Kansas City, especially high-flying offense. Surely, New York’s passing defense should hold its own, right? The Jets boast a formidable cornerback duo in Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed. The unit ranked third in passing yards allowed per game last season.
New York’s secondary has come out of the gate stumbling. It is 17th in passing yards allowed per game and 27th in opponent completion percentage. This is reflected in numberFire’s pass defense rating where the Jets hold the 10th-worst unit. Of course, Patrick Mahomes leads another strong passing attack; Kansas City is fourth in scheduled-adjusted passing efficiency.
After witnessing the Chiefs’ dominant Week 3 win, New York’s defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich probably lost a lot of sleep this week. Join the club; Andy Reid’s offense creates endless nightmares for the opposition. The offense was firing on all cylinders against the Bears, totaling 456 yards and 41 points.
With Wilson leading the Jets’ offense, New York will be leaning on its defense just like last season. However, if Kansas City is poised for another impressive offensive showing, how can the Jets make this competitive? New York must control the clock, which starts and ends with the run game.
The Chiefs are numberFire’s 16th-best adjusted run defense, and New York comes in as its seventh-worst rushing offense. Neither team is exceptional in these areas. ESPN’s blocking win rates also provides us with good insight. The Jets are 26th in run-blocking win rate, and Kansas City is 30th in run-stuff win rate.
Kansas City’s star defensive tackle, Chris Jones, saw limited snaps last week and is questionable with a groin injury. If Jones cannot go, this would have a profound effect on New York’s ability to move the ball.
Ultimately, I like the Jets to cover the spread in Week 4. We know Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook are a talented running back duo. They could finally put up solid numbers against a mediocre run defense. Plus, numberFire’s game projection is suggesting a cover for New York.
Chiefs vs. Jets Prop Bets
All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
Travis Kelce Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Travis Kelce already demands attention in NFL circles as the top tight end in football. He’s been drawing even more eyes over the last week after pop star Taylor Swift attended Kansas City’s Week 3 matchup against Chicago. Kelce showed out with T-Swift in attendance, posting 69 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Kelce saw his jersey sales soar by over 400%, while the telecast of the game set records across multiple demographics.
Swift is also expected to attend Sunday night’s game. Does this mean another solid showing for the KC All-Pro?
This is a great story for the NFL as more people are tuning into games. However, we can’t back a prop based on Swift attending a game. Let’s dig into the stats.
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Kelce has a projected receiving total of 71.5 yards when looking at NFL props. numberFire’s DFS projections have Kelce’s total at 77.4 yards, suggesting the over for this prop.
Through two games, Kelce is averaging 8.5 targets per game and 5.5 receptions per game. He’s only averaging 8.6 yards per reception thus far compared to 12.2 yards per catch last season. The Jets are the fifth-worst team in tight end receiving yards allowed per game. This once again suggests a big day for Kelce — especially when New York is surrendering 10.6 yards per reception against tight ends.
I’m locked in on this standard over for Kelce, which translates to Kelce to Record 80+ Receiving Yards (+116), as well. However, FanDuel Sportsbook also has plenty of special Kelce markets for Sunday’s game, including:
| Special Wager | Odds |
|---|---|
| FriENDZONE: Kelce to NOT Score a TD | +105 |
| Top of the Charts: Kelce to Lead the Game in Receiving Yards | +140 |
| Seeing Red: Chiefs to Win by 22+ Points | +380 |
| Opening Act: Travis Kelce First TD Scorer | +400 |
| Running Away Together: Chiefs to Have 150+ Rushing Yards | +420 |
| Seemingly Ranch: Travis Kelce Last TD Scorer | +500 |
| Plot Twist: Zach Wilson to Have 300+ Passing Yards | +1800 |
| Platinum Performance: Travis Kelce to Score 3+ TDs | +2500 |
| Exes & 0s: NY Jets to Score Zero Total Points | +3000 |
Breece Hall Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
As previously mentioned, New York will likely lean on the run as they attempt to keep the Chiefs’ offense off of the field. According to NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Wilson has been the worst passer in the NFL attempting at least 25 throws per game (-0.48 expected points added per dropback). The Jets must avoid Wilson shouldering the load at all costs.
Thanks to early deficits, the Jets rank 24th in carries per game. They must find a way to stay with the run on Sunday night. This bodes well for Breece Hall, who was shut down last week with 18 rushing yards on 1.5 yards per carry.
Fortunately, Hall has a more favorable matchup against Kansas City’s run defense. The New England Patriots — last week’s opponent — are rated 8th in numberFire’s rush defense ratings while the Chiefs are 16th.
Hall’s workload continues to be a mystery, though. Hall and Cook have been pretty much evenly split in touches and snaps. Cook has a snap share of 36.5% while Hall is at 38.4%. Hall is averaging 8.7 rushing attempts compared to Cook’s 8.3. Yet, Hall received only four attempts in Week 2.
Expect Hall and Cook to split carries yet again. In Week 3, Hall ran the rock 12 times. If he gets this kind of workload, the former Iowa State Cyclones tailback roll to the over. His efficiency has been exceptional at 5.9 yards per carry so far.
Among qualifying players, Hall leads the NFL in yards after contact per carry. I expect New York to utilize its running backs due to Wilson’s poor play. Give me Hall to go over.
In line with an over, numberFire’s projections have Hall expected to record 57.0 yards.
— Riley Thomas
Chiefs vs. Jets Prediction: NFL Week 4
The numberFire projection model lists a win probability strongly in the Chiefs’ favor on the road against the Jets.
A spread of 9.5 points and an over/under of 41.5 total points implies a final score of approximately 25.5-16.
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