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Bears vs. Vikings Prediction: Where’s the Smart Money Going on Monday Night Football?

This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research.

Chicago and Minnesota are set to meet for the second time this season. Our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook get you set for Monday Night Football with your Bears vs. Vikings prediction and props to watch.

The Chicago Bears (3-8) will visit the Minnesota Vikings (6-5) for a divisional game to wrap up Week 12.

The Vikings edged the Bears 19-13 in a Week 6 game at Soldier Field. In that matchup, Kirk Cousins was at the helm for Minnesota, Tyson Bagent took a majority of the snaps for Chicago, and D’Onta Foreman led both teams in rush yards. We won’t see any of these players featured tonight.

Justin Fields (thumb) will make his second start back for the Bears whereas Foreman (ankle) finds himself on the injury report.

Cousins suffered a torn Achilles in Week 8 and will miss the remainder of the season. Losing Cousins, who up until his injury was throwing for 300-plus yards and multiple touchdowns more often than not, is a major blow for the Vikings, but all is not lost.

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Joshua Dobbs has taken over the signal-caller role, and Minnesota fans couldn’t ask for much more from him through three games. Dobbs has thrown for four touchdowns, rushed for three, and tossed just one interception in his Vikings era.

The Vikings’ five-game winning streak was snapped last week in a 21-20 defeat, but the energy has shifted in Minnesota. After starting the season 1-4, they now hold -230 playoff odds going into tonight.

Bright spots for the Bears, meanwhile, have been few and far between this season. Their three wins have been against teams that sit in the bottom eight of numberFire’s power rankings while their average margin of loss stands at a meaty 10.8 points. Last week, they held a 10-point fourth-quarter lead over the Detroit Lions but allowed 17 unanswered Detroit points in the final four minutes.

Chicago has a young and scrappy team, but at this point, they are hardly playing for anything other than an advantageous draft position.

The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET and can be watched on ABC and ESPN.

NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Bears at Vikings Week 12 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

  • Spread: Vikings -3.0 (-105)
  • Total: 43.5
  • Moneyline:
    • Vikings: -154
    • Bears: +130

Bears at Vikings Week 12 Matchup Analysis

The numbers show this matchup may be more lopsided than the spread indicates. Per numberFire’s power rankings, the Vikings sit pretty in the 9th spot while the Bears fall far behind as the 24th-ranked team. Chicago drifts in the bottom 10 of both offense and defense whereas Minnesota ranks 11th on both sides of the ball.

We should expect a pass-heavy game from both teams — or at least anticipate offensive success to come via the passing game. The Bears allow the second-fewest rush yards per game (79.5) and fewest yards per rush attempt (3.4), while the Vikings allow the eighth-fewest rush yards (94.0) and the fourth-fewest yards per rush attempt (3.7).

These factors would likely favor Minnesota, who hold the fifth-lowest rush play percentage to Chicago’s third-highest. With that being said, the Vikings have been rushing the ball and have the sixth-highest rate since Dobbs joined the team — though his Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) have increased six points in the same span.

Though the Bears are one of the least sacrificial defenses on the ground, they do let up the seventh-most passing yards per game (245.9). The spots where the Bears D falters most happen to be in the gravest instances.

No team in the league allows a higher third-down conversion percentage (47.55%) to opponents than Chicago, and this percentage increases to a towering 58.23% on the road.

Further, the Bears are allowing a league-high 75.0% red zone scoring percentage to opponents. For comparison, the Vikings allow only a 53.3% red zone scoring percentage.

Justin Jefferson (hamstring) was marked as questionable for tonight but is not expected to play. T.J. Hockenson has been incredible this season and leads all tight ends in the league with 736 yards, but the Bears have been solid against tight ends this year, allowing an average of 47.55 receiving yards to this position.

Instead, it would be advisable to keep your eyes peeled for a big Jordan Addison game. The rookie receiver has stepped up amid Jefferson’s absence, leading the team in red zone and end-zone target share.

Justin Fields was incredible on the ground in his first game back from injury last week, rushing for a season-high 104 yards. If he can follow up on this type of play and permit the Bears offense to operate as a dual-threat in the air and on the ground, perhaps he can look to grab his first career win against Minnesota. Although last week’s late-game flub further exposed the disarray within Chicago’s coaching staff.

The Vikings are 2-0 in the NFC North this season while the Bears have dropped all three of their games in the division.

Bears vs. Vikings Best Bets

Vikings -3.0 (-105)

Siding with Minnesota to cover seems to be the right move tonight. The Bears have a single road victory to their name this season and a -50 point differential for away games.

This, paired with an indefensible 58.23% third-down conversion percentage allowed on the road, gives Minnesota a major home advantage.

Since Dobbs has taken over as QB1, the Vikings are averaging 4.3 red zone scoring attempts per game (third-most). Look for Minnesota to use these opportunities to capitalize off of Chicago’s league-high red zone scoring percentage allowed to opponents.

The Vikings have kept one win this season within three points while the Bears have kept one loss within three points. Minnesota’s -154 moneyline odds aren’t thrilling but are undervalued nonetheless.

numberFire anticipates a 26.49-22.29 Vikings win.

Jordan Addison Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-114) and Anytime Touchdown (+185)

Jordan Addison has eclipsed 50 yards in 8 out of 11 games this season, and we should expect more of the same tonight.

Addison is rocking with a 25.3% target share since Jefferson was placed on IR and has seen a team-high 10.6 aDOT in this span. He’s also been playing 90.7% of snaps (team-high), making him a clear option to target against a Bears D that allows 143.18 receiving yards to wide receivers.

I’d also look out for Addison to reach the end zone for the eighth time this season. He has a team-high 29.4% red zone target share and 33.3% end zone target share since Jefferson’s injury.

These numbers have dipped a bit since Dobbs took over, but the Bears allow the third-most passing touchdowns per game (2.0) and the second-most on the road (2.3), so the Dobbs-to-Addison end-zone connection could be primed for a debut.

Alexander Mattison Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Alexander Mattison doesn’t see a whole lot of action in the passing game, but that could change with this matchup.

The Bears give up almost as many receiving yards (63.27) to running backs as they do rushing (64.09). This resulted in Mattison being targeted 7 times for 28 yards in Week 6’s game against Chicago.

Mattison is averaging 6.5 yards per reception and has had 11-plus yard receptions in four games this season. A catch or two should do the trick for this prop.

D.J. Moore Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

While I do believe the Vikings as a whole are underrated going into tonight’s game, their 23rd-ranked pass defense is properly rated, and the Bears have an offensive weapon that can take advantage.

D.J. Moore is running a whopping 96.9% of routes this season and also leads the team in target share (25.8%), aDOT (12.5), and downfield targets (3.3).

Minnesota gives up way too many yards to wide receivers (170.91 per game) for Moore to not be of interest.

When Moore is involved and succeeds, so do the Bears. He is averaging 40.3 yards in games where the Bears have lost by more than 10 points whereas he averages 96.0 yards when the Bears end the game within at least 10 points.

numberFire’s projections and the spread indicate that Chicago can stay within striking distance throughout this game, and hefty Moore yardage should come hand-in-hand.

— Annie Nader

Bears vs. Vikings Prediction

The numberFire projections model gives the Vikings a 64.2% chance of victory against Chicago.

A spread of 3 points and total of 43.5 implies a final score of approximately 23-20.

Bears vs. Vikings prediction via numberFire projection model

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