This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research.
Who’s the new top dog? Entering the Round of 16, check out the latest FIFA Women’s World Cup odds and team-by-team outlooks from our friends at FanDuel Research.
The field Down Under has been sliced down to 16 teams, and we’re officially at the business end of the tournament as the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup knockout stage begins on Saturday, Aug. 5.
It was a wild group stage with more than a few surprises as a couple of big teams got sent home (Germany and Brazil at the top of the list) while the pre-tourney favorite — none other than the United States — nearly did as well.
To get you ready for the knockout rounds, let’s look at the latest Women’s World Cup betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook for all 16 remaining teams, as well as team-by-team outlooks for a few of the top contenders.
2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup Odds Entering Round of 16
|Nation||FanDuel Sportsbook Odds|
Fresh off a win in the most recent European Championships, England came into the tourney at +380 to win it all, making them the second favorite. They’ve lived up to that billing through the group stage, scoring eight goals and conceding just one en route to a trio of wins.
The bracket is in their favor, too, as the right side of the bracket is definitely the side to be on. Of the six teams listed at +900 or better to win the World Cup, just two — England and France — are on the right side of the brack. As such, the Three Lionesses have a fairly clear path to the semifinals. They’re -1200 to advance past Nigeria in the Round of 16 and would then face either Colombia or Jamaica in the quarterfinals.
Lauren James has been the star for England, totaling three goals and three assists. The six goals plus assists is a tourney-leading clip.
On the negative, England entered the World Cup short-handed, and that could rear its head as they come up against tougher foes, with a semifinal clash against France looming. England have also been a little lucky in terms of expected goals (xG). Per FBRef, England’s xG differential of +4.2 ranks just eighth in the field.
United States (+470)
The US has been a perplexing team through three group-stage matches.
On one hand, if this shot by Portugal goes in, the Americans — who were the pre-tourney betting favorites at +240 — might be out of the World Cup in shocking fashion.
On the other hand, the US has been very unlucky.
They rank third in the tourney in xG differential (+7.0), with most of the bad fortune coming in attack, where the US has mustered just four goals from 7.8 xG. Defensively, they’ve conceded only 0.7 xG through three matches, the fewest in the tourney. So while it feels like the Americans have been underwhelming — and they have been going by results — there’s still a lot to like about this team.
Oddsmakers are bullish on the US, listing them as the second favorite, and that’s all the more noteworthy when you consider the arduous path in front of the Americans — a route that starts with a solid Sweden side and then likely includes Japan — maybe the team of the World Cup so far — and Spain in the quarters and semis, respectively. Unless Spain and Japan get upset prior to playing the US, the Americans will have a very difficult path just to get to the final.
However, with all that said, the United States is the second favorite despite their results and despite a possibly brutal stretch of opposition in the knockout rounds — which tells you how highly oddsmakers regard this squad. It’s far from a lock the US move past Sweden in the Round of 16, though, as the Americans are just -184 to do so.
For a neutral fan, the French have been one of the best teams to watch. They’ve been fun in attack (7.7 xG) and shaky on D (3.3 xG allowed). Among the top 14 teams in xG differential, France are the only side that have conceded at least 3.0 xG.
Not that France isn’t good, but France’s title odds being as short as they are — +650 is the fourth-shortest number — has a lot to do with them landing on the easier side of the bracket.
Their march to the semis begins against Morocco, the side with the worst odds to win it all among the remaining 16 teams. A possible clash with hosts Australia in the quarters could be tricky, but on paper, the right side of the bracket is likely to end up in a semifinal bout between England and France.
Japan have been one of the surprises of the tourney. Japan wasn’t expected to be a legit title contender at this World Cup, listed at +3400 to win it prior to the tournament. Through three matches, they’ve looked like one of the truly elite sides in the field.
Japan got all nine points from its three group games and did it in dominant fashion, scoring 11 times while racking up three straight clean sheets. The advanced metrics look just as good as Japan are first in xG created (9.9) and second in fewest xG allowed (0.9), resulting in a tourney-best +9.0 xG differential.
Despite that dominance, Japan are just +900 to lift the trophy. There are two main reasons for that.
One, 9.0 of the xG Japan tallied came against two weak foes (Zambia and Costa Rica), with Japan amassing only 0.9 xG versus Spain despite winning the match 4-0. Two, Japan are on the tougher side of the bracket and could potentially have a really stiff path. Norway are far from a gimme in the Round of 16 — although Japan are -290 to advance — and after that, Japan could run into the US and Spain in the next two rounds before the final.
— Austan Kas
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