With the playoff picture starting to take shape, our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook have all the NFL Week 15 predictions and props you need.
This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research.
Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board — one side, one total, and one player prop. They’ll share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they’re on that bet.
All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Note: Betting lines and numberFire’s player projections may change after this article is published.
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NFL Week 15 Expert Predictions
Jim Sannes, Digital Media Managing Editor
Side: Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (-110)
I think the Rams’ past two games have shown that this offense is legitimately very good. The Rams went up against two of the best defenses in football and were able to move the ball effectively each time, topping 30 points in both games. They now go home to face a Commanders defense that has been poor all year but full-octane dumpster juice since the trade deadline. My model has the Rams favored by close to double digits in this one, so laying less than a touchdown is pretty appealing.
Total: Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots Over 37 (-115)
Player Prop: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 77.5 Rushing Plus Receiving Yards (-114)
Austin Swaim, Senior Editor
Side: New England Patriots +8.5 (-115)
Home underdogs of at least seven points are 59-37-1 against the spread (ATS) since the start of 2020, and a pair stand out to me this weekend. One is Arizona, and the other is New England. The Pats’ outburst of offense against a solid Steelers D provides enough hope they can move the ball on a Kansas City defense allowing the eighth-most Offensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play in the last five weeks (0.12), and their defense is second-best in that category in the same period (-0.13). With Isiah Pacheco also missing practices, I don’t believe K.C. scores enough to cover north of a possession.
Total: Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans Under 37.5 (-115)
Player Prop: Saquon Barkley Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Austan Kas, Senior Editor
Side: Buffalo Bills -1.5 (-118)
Total: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins Under 37.5 (-115)
Player Prop: Travis Kelce Under 6.5 Receptions (-130)
For all the Patriots’ struggles this year, they’ve still been solid on defense, ranking 12th by numberFire’s schedule-adjusted metrics. They’ve been really tough on tight ends, holding the position to the ninth-fewest catches (4.2) and fifth-fewest yards (38.4) per game. On top of that, Bill Belichick has a long track record of trying to take away the opposition’s top weapon. When you add all that together, I’m expecting a quiet game from Travis Kelce. Given Kelce’s after-the-catch ability, I prefer to target the under on his receptions total rather than his yardage prop (63.5).
Kenyatta Storin, Editor
Side: Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (-110)
The Ravens needed overtime to best these Rams last week, a sign that L.A. is a much more formidable team than their 6-7 record would suggest. After all, the Rams are the 10th-best team in our power rankings and nearly took out the 3rd-ranked Ravens. On the other hand, Washington is 31st and has lost six of their last seven. Their lone win over that stretch came against the three-win Patriots. The Rams should be able to take advantage of a Commanders team that has numberFire’s 32nd-ranked adjusted pass defense. numberFire’s game projections are also bullish on Los Angeles, projecting a margin of victory just under 12 points.
Total: Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans Under 37.5 (-115)
Player Prop: Puka Nacua over 66.5 receiving yards (-114)
Zack Bussiere, Writer
Side: Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (-110)
Total: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers Over 42.5 (-110)
Player Prop: Bijan Robinson Any Time Touchdown (+125)
After a somewhat slow start to the season, Bijan Robinson has started to heat up following a utilization change from head coach Arthur Smith. Since the Falcons bye week in Week 11, Robinson is handling 44% of Atlanta’s rushing attempts. That’s not ideal, but he has paired that with an elite 24% target share and 63% of the Falcons’ short down and distance snaps. After scoring just three touchdowns in Weeks 1-9, Robinson has four since Week 10. This week, he faces a Carolina Panthers‘ rush defense ranked last in numberFire’s schedule-adjusted metrics. With Atlanta needing a win to stay in the race for the NFC South, I like Robinson’s chances of finding the end zone this weekend.
Gabriel Santiago, Writer
Side: Buffalo Bills -1.5 (-118)
Dallas has been impressive in 2023, but they still have defeated only one team that shows a winning record right now. Additionally, the Cowboys will be heading outside of AT&T Stadium for the first time in nearly a month, and I wouldn’t doubt if Western New York’s inclement conditions hamper their hot offense. With that in mind, I like the Bills at home against the spread (ATS) of -1.5. This is the smallest number that Buffalo has been favored by at Orchard Park this year, and they are still just two weeks removed from their recent bye. With Josh Allen propelling his offense to 28.7 PPG over the past three contests, I believe Bills Mafia returns home to a win and cover.
Total: New York Giants at New Orleans Saints Over 39.5 (-105)
Player Prop: Stefon Diggs Any Time Touchdown (+105)
Annie Nader, Writer
Side: Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (-110)
Total: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers Over 42.5 (-110)
Player Prop: Gabriel Davis Any Time Touchdown (+220)
The Bills have a 26.5 implied team total (third-highest on slate), and you can get the guy who dominates Buffalo end zone targets at juicy touchdown odds. Not only does Gabe Davis tout a team-leading 48.0% end zone target share, but he’s also leading the team in snap percentage (88.4%) and ranks second behind only Stefon Diggs, in red zone target share (20.4%). Dallas isn’t an easy matchup, but they do let up the 11th-most passing touchdowns per game (1.3) and the seventh-most on the road (1.7).
Scott Edwards, Writer
Side: San Francisco 49ers -12.5 (-110)
Total: Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns Under 38.5 (-115)
Player Prop: Rachaad White Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
It’s quite easy when it comes to Rachaad White. He’s been a machine for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers whether it’s been on the ground or through the air. Taking on the Green Bay Packers, the Buccaneers could be in line for a back-and-forth game. White will have to be active in every way as he has in the last few weeks. He’s recorded over 21.5 receiving yards in 7 of his last 8 games, making this an easy call for him to cover. Green Bay is allowing 28.2 receiving yards per game to running backs, so White shouldn’t have a problem doing damage.
— Scott Edwards Jr.
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