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Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira Odds, Props & Prediction: UFC 281

Boardroom delivers the odds, props, and prediction as Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira revisit their past at UFC 281 with title implications.

Reliving the past. Trying to articulate what previously happened rigorously and objectively correct what once went wrong. Someday those who believe in luck get the answer to their question, while others never get a chance at redemption. For middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, facing Alex Pereira in a UFC title fight also presents an opportunity to even the odds against the only man present on the positive end of a viral moment against Adesanya.

By now, any MMA faithful is aware of Adesanya’s notorious kickboxing knockout loss at the hands of Pereira in 2017. Despite the archaic loss being in a different sport, the viral moment attained 14 million views under different rules, sprouting across the social media ecosystem. Even if Israel wanted to forget the moment, the world would deny it.

“I’ve seen it. I don’t even know how many times,” Adesanya said to the media. “I’ve never shied away from it. For years, it never really showed up on my radar, but once I started popping in the UFC, it started to pop up again because he was posting it.”

This is more than likely fueled by “Poatan’s” belief that Adesanya hasn’t let go of the knockout, stating to the media, “I don’t know how it’s going to be or how he could possibly erase that from his mind, but I know it’s still there.”

With both fighters evolving since their last encounter, fans will finally see a story of redemption or a haunting past become a present-day nightmare. With all this in mind, let’s look at the odds and major prop bets for Saturday’s Adesanya vs. Pereira middleweight main event clash at UFC 281, courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook, plus a big fight prediction.

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Adesanya vs. Pereira Fight Info

UFC 281 — Main Event Middleweight Championship Bout
(C) Israel Adesanya (23-1-0, 15 KOs, 0 Submissions)
No. 4 Alex Pereira (6-1-0, 5 KOs, 7 Submissions)
Date: Saturday, November 12, 2022
Fight Time: The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET
Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, United States
Coverage: ESPN+

Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira Odds to Win

All UFC 281 odds, lines, and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.


Israel Adesanya: -210
Alex Pereira: +162

UFC 281 Adesanya vs. Pereira Prop Bets

Method of Victory

Adesanya by:

KO/TKO: +360
Points: +130
Submission: +1400

Pereira by:

KO/TKO: +270
Points: +650
Submission: +2600

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Yes: -112
No: -110

Over/Under Total Rounds

OVER 4.5: -154
UNDER 4.5: +120

Adesanya vs. Pereira Prediction

UFC 281 Adesanya vs. Pereira prediction percentages courtesy of Tapology Fight Predictions.

  • Projected winner: Israel Adesanya (60%)
  • Projected method of victory: Decision (64%)

Will history repeat itself? That remains to be seen. But for now, Pereira is in a situation where he has everything to gain yet nothing to lose. Nobody would fault Alex for a loss here. He’s a relatively new MMA fighter who is virtually in his current position solely for ties with the current champion.

That said, Adesanya is the champion for a reason, and this isn’t kickboxing. Experience is vital, especially in a five-round main event. While Israel has hit a recent skid of winning in a less-than-alluring fashion, he’s also proven the ability to neutralize anyone daring to stand and trade with him.

Because of Alex’s aggressive nature, I expect Adesanya to show the levels of an MMA champion. When going to battle with a relatively brand-new fighter who possesses a singular dimensional skillet, Adesanya will prove why he’s one of the greatest Middleweights in UFC history.

Adesanya vs. Pereira Prediction: I’ll take Adesanya by finish (+270) in the late rounds.

UFC 281 Adesanya vs. Pereira Betting Trends & Stats

  • Israel Adesanya defeated Jared Cannonier by decision in his most recent fight on July 2, 11, 2022.
  • Alex Pereira defeated Sean Strickland by KO/TKO in his most recent fight on July 2, 2022.
  • Adesanya averages 3.93 significant strikes landed per minute with a 49% accuracy rate.
  • Pereira averages 6.29 significant strikes landed per minute with a 60% accuracy rate.
  • Adesanya averages 2.67 significant strikes absorbed per minute with a 59% defense rate.
  • Pereira averages 3.36 significant strikes absorbed per minute with a 58% defense rate.
  • Adesanya has a 78% takedown defense rate.
  • Pereira has a 73% takedown defense rate.

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