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NFL Week 5 Picks: Which Games & Props Do the Experts Like?

This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research

Our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook named the games and props that caught their eye in Week 5 — and stick around for a big 49ers vs. Cowboys prediction.

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board — one side, one total, and one player prop. They’ll share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they’re on that bet, and stay around at the end for a big Cowboys vs. 49ers prediction for Sunday Night Football.

All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

NOTE: Betting lines and numberFire’s player projections may change after this article is published.

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Expert NFL Week 5 Picks

Jim Sannes, Digital Media Managing Editor

Side: Indianapolis Colts +2.5 (-110)

The Colts opened as slight favorites here, but their moneyline has lengthened to +116. Frankly, I don’t agree with that movement. My model makes the Colts 2.2-point favorites here, thanks to both homefield and a surprisingly decent offense to open the year. Anthony Richardson has been good enough through the air to give you some confidence should they not find themselves in a positive script. The Titans did work last week, but I’m still not convinced they’re as good as the market seems to believe.

Total: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Over 38 (-108)

Player Prop: Tank Dell Over 41.5 receiving yards (-114)

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Side: Indianapolis Colts +2.5 (-110)

Total: Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons Over 41.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Jaylen Waddle Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

It’s been an odd season for Jaylen Waddle, but he should be fully up to speed for this game after clearing the concussion protocol last week. With the Giants potentially getting back key pieces, I actually expect this to remain slightly competitive, and Waddle is well overdue for a stellar outing. He’s still mustered 2.33 yards per route run (17th in the NFL) in limited work, but Tyreek Hill dominated touches in Week 1, the concussion came in Week 2, and he folded with the rest of the offense in Week 4. Nonetheless, he’s still passed this mark in two of three games this year; it’s far too low.

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Side: Indianapolis Colts +2.5 (-110)

Total: New York Jets at Denver Broncos Under 43.5 (-110)

Denver’s defense has been horrible this year, but they have too much talent to continue being this bad — right? I think they keep the Jets’ offense quiet on Sunday, and while Russell Wilson has been solid, the Jets’ D should be able to hold Denver’s offense in check. All in all, I see defenses winning out in this one.

Player Prop: Jordan Addison Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Tom Vecchio, Editor

Side: New England Patriots +1 (-115)

Total: Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams Under 50.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Desmond Ridder Under 181.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Ridder comes in averaging just 186 passing yards per game and is also averaging 6.3 yards gained per pass attempt, which is 26th in the league. The Texans are showing up on defense this season and have held opposing quarterbacks to only 195.3 passing yards per game, the ninth-best in the league.

Kenyatta Storin, Editor

Side: Arizona Cardinals +3.0 (-108)

Joe Burrow simply hasn’t looked right this season, ranking last among starters in yards per pass attempt (4.8) and throwing just two touchdowns total. On the other hand, Joshua Dobbs has been a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals, and the team actually ranks as one of the better-adjusted offenses in the league, per numberFire’s metrics. In this battle of 1-3 teams, I’m inclined to take the points being given to what could be an undervalued home team.

Total: Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions Under 44.5 (-118)

Player Prop: Tank Dell Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Side: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (-110)

Total: New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots Under 39.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Anthony Richardson Anytime TD (+135)

Anthony Richardson has played 10 quarters of professional football across three games. He has scored four rushing touchdowns on seven red zone attempts. Maybe that touchdown rate is unsustainable, and maybe Jonathan Taylor’s return cuts into Richardson’s goal line work. Or, maybe Richardson is an athletic freak and is paired with a playcaller who knows how to use running quarterbacks. I’m more inclined to believe the latter and will continue to take his touchdown prop while it’s plus odds.

Zack Bussiere, Writer

Side: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (-110)

The Chiefs are the fifth overall team in numberFire’s power rankings. Their offense ranks 8th, per numberFire’s metrics, and their defense ranks 11th. Minnesota sits in 16th overall, with an offense ranked 18th and a defense ranked 19th. Notably, the Vikings’ pass defense ranks 26th, which is a tough weakness to have when facing Patrick Mahomes.

Total: New York Jets at Denver Broncos Under 43.5 (-110)

Player Prop: CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD (+155)

Gabriel Santiago, Writer

Side: Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 (-105)

Total: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Under 38.0 (-112)

Before even diving into the physical, defensive rivalry at hand, you should know that Baltimore and Pittsburgh have both been friendly to under bettors in 2023. Through four previous weeks this season, the Ravens and Steelers both have a 1-3 record for over supporters. Simply, in the eight total games these sides have played this year, the under has prevailed 75% of the time. In terms of this specific head-to-head rivalry, the combined total has averaged 32.0 PPG through their past five meetings.

Player Prop: Jaylen Waddle Anytime TD (+125)

Annie Nader, Writer

Side: New York Jets +2.5 (-110)

Total: Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons Over 41.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Sam LaPorta Anytime Touchdown (+190)

The Lions have the fourth-ranked passing offense and are at home this weekend facing a winless and low-ranked Carolina Panthers defense, meaning Goff and his receivers should see decent end-zone opportunities on Sunday. Sam LaPorta has only reached the end zone once through four weeks, but his 80.0% snap percentage, 21.8% target market share, and 20.0% red zone target market share are second (only to St. Brown) among Detroit players. Coach Campbell announced that St. Brown is not in line to practice on Friday and is questionable for Sunday’s matchup, so LaPorta could move into the number one spot, at least as Goff’s targets are concerned. Either way, LaPorta has proven to be a very consistent aspect of Detroit’s offense, so I think his +190 odds to score a touchdown offers decent value.

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Nick Vazquez, Writer

Side: Houston Texans +1.5 (-110)

The Houston Texans are coming off two impressive wins and really seem to be clicking under their new coaching staff. Meanwhile, the Falcons have lost two in a row and their limited passing game seems to be hurting them. Throw in the fact they had to travel back from London before this game makes me believe that Houston should be able to cover 1.5 points this week.

Total: Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions Over 44.5 (-104)

Player Prop: Anthony Richardson Anytime Touchdown (+135)

Riley Thomas, Writer

Side: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (-110)

Total: Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons Over 41.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Tony Pollard Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The Cowboys have committed to the run game, averaging 34.3 carries per game (third). The 49ers boast one of the NFL’s best run defenses, though; they rank third in rushing yards allowed per game. However, numberFire’s adjusted run defense suggests otherwise, as San Francisco has the 15th-worst adjusted run defense. Dallas ranks fourth in ESPN’s run block win rate. Plus, the Cowboys could finally have their best five offensive linemen healthy for the Sunday night clash. Opponents average only 17.0 carries per game against the Niners (first). San Fran could finally face a team that is committed to the run, especially if the game stays competitive as most expect. Tony Pollard could be in store for an impressive performance.

Scott Edwards, Writer

Side: New York Jets +2.5 (-110)

We learned two things last week. The Jets still have some fight in them, and Zach Wilson can make throws when the opportunities are there (thanks offensive line). They were a score away (and a call) from taking down the Kansas City Chiefs. So, why should they be the underdogs against a Denver Broncos team that barely survived the Chicago Bears in the same exact week? The Broncos have talent on their roster, but it’s not going to magically all figure itself out this week. Between the Jets having a truly elite defense and the Broncos having the complete opposite, I feel confident the Jets can take care of business for the first time since Week 1.

Total: New York Giants at Miami Dolphins Over 47.5 (-114)

Player Prop: Bijan Robinson Over 77.5 Yards (-114)

Cowboys vs. 49ers Prediction: NFL Week 5

The numberFire projection model lists a win probability fairly strongly in the 49ers’ favor on Sunday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys.

Overall, they project the Niners to have a 69.4% win probability.

Cowboys vs. 49ers prediction based on numberFire projection model

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