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Sports September 29, 2023
Boardroom Staff

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo: Who Has the Betting Edge for Undisputed Gold?

FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images

This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research

It’s on! Lock in for Saturday’s superfight in Vegas with a big Charlo vs. Canelo prediction, plus the latest odds and insights from our friends at FanDuel.

The past few months of 2023 offered a slugging run of fights in the world of boxing. Yet, as with every year, the summer has to come to an end eventually.

For fight fans, the heat is still on through this Saturday, Sept. 30 when undisputed super middleweight champ Saúl “Canelo” Álvarez (59-2-2, 39 KO) battles Jermell “Iron Man” Charlo (35-1-1, 19 KO) at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Álvarez’s IBF, WBA, WBC, and WBO world titles at 168 pounds will be on the line. He and Charlo serve as the main event for a 12-bout fight card.

With Mexican Independence Day taking place on Sept. 27, there will be no shortage of pride in Las Vegas this weekend. Canelo will be defending his undisputed status against Charlo (not to be confused with his twin brother Jermall Charlo, a world champ at 160 pounds), who is in action for the fourth time in just the past 17 months.

For all the latest betting odds and insights, how to watch, full card details, and a big Canelo vs. Charlo prediction, read on.

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Canelo Álvarez vs. Jermell Charlo Fight Odds

All Canelo-Charlo boxing odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Moneyline

  • Álvarez: -430
  • Charlo: +300

Round Total

  • 10.5 rounds (-330/+235)

Will Fight Go the Distance?

  • Yes: -240
  • No: +182

Method Of Victory

  • Canelo by Points or Decision: -120
  • Canelo by KO/TKO: +280
  • Draw: +1600
  • Charlo by Points or Decision: +480
  • Charlo by KO/TKO: +950

How To Watch Canelo vs. Charlo

Showtime owns the event’s broadcasting rights in the United States. The card will be available via pay-per-view for $84.99.

In the UK and Ireland, DAZN will live-stream the fight available as part of its monthly subscription service.

The card is slated to begin at 9 p.m. EST with main event ringwalks for Canelo-Charlo scheduled tentatively for 11 p.m. EST.

Fighter History

Saúl “Canelo” Álvarez

Arguably boxing’s most prevalent icon of the current era, Álvarez is the fighting national pride of El Tri. Simply, in Mexico, there is no sporting superstar bigger than Canelo. At the ripe age of 33, he is back in Vegas for his third time in 17 months; his June 2023 bout against John Ryder was south of the border.

It is not breaking news to claim Álvarez is a thoroughly impressive fighter. At 5-foot-8, he is built thick from the shoulders up, using elite neck strength for lighting-quick head movement in the ring. Simply, he is a defensive nightmare with equally as scary counter-punching abilities — the longer Charlo will need to watch his liver.

As pundits are quick to mention, Canelo has never been knocked out — or knocked down. After all, he has only suffered two career losses: one to undefeated Floyd Mayweather and the other to the much larger DmitriI Bivol, both via decision. When looking at the boxing odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, it makes sense that the “Will the Fight Go the Distance?” betting market has a longer price on “No” at +182.

Álvarez enters this weekend’s scrap with a 66.1% KO rate through 63 professional contests. The Ring magazine and Boxing Writers Association of America both have Canelo ranked as the No. 4 active pound-for-pound (P4P) boxer. On Saturday, he will hunt for his 60th win against the taller, slighter Charlo.

Vegas may be US soil, but expect the crowd out west to be heavily in favor of Canelo — especially considering September’s Mexican holiday.

Jermell Charlo

Moving up from junior middleweight, the Texas native Charlo — also age 33 — is back in the ring after a year and a half between bouts. We last saw Charlo fight in Carson, California, winning a rematch against Brian Castaño in emphatic fashion. The two previously fought to a draw 10 months prior, but a short left hook in the 10th round of the second meeting from Charlo put Castano down for the night.

On Christmas 2018, Charlo received his lone professional loss, suffering a unanimous decision to Tony “Superbad” Harrison in Brooklyn for the WBC super welterweight title. Still, Charlo was able to avenge the loss a year later, scoring a TKO victory over Harrison to reclaim the hardware. Again, the left hook was a winner for Charlo.

Charlo is not built quite as sturdily as Canelo, but the American challenger does hold a couple of physical advantages. Standing six feet tall, Charlo boasts a height advantage and a standing reach of 73 inches; for comparison, Álvarez’s reach is only measured at 70.5 inches.

Does “Iron Man” have the necessary core strength to go into deep water with Canelo? His camp certainly believes so. Charlo has critical recognition, as well. The Boxing Writers Association of America also has Jermell on its P4P rankings, showing up at No. 9. According to the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, Charlo is currently 10th on the P4P list, while Canelo is No. 7.

— Gabriel Santiago

Canelo vs. Charlo Prediction

Combat sports platform Tapology’s community predictions back Álvarez to win by an overwhelming 92% of respondents.

Method of victory predictions break down thus:

  • 58.88% back Canelo by decision
  • 29.44% back Canelo by KO/TKO
  • 5.33% back Charlo by decision
  • 2.48% back Charlo by KO/TKO

Canelo Álvarez vs. Jermell Charlo Full Fight Card

  • MAIN EVENT: Saúl “Canelo” Álvarez vs. Jermell Charlo
    • Undisputed WBC, WBO, WBA and IBF super middleweight (168 lb.) championship
  • CO-MAIN EVENT: Jesus Ramos Jr. vs. Erickson Lubin
    • Light middleweight (154 lbs.)
  • Yordenis Ugas vs. Mario Barrios
    • For WBC interim welterweight (147 lb.) championship
  • Elijah Garcia vs. Armando Resendiz
    • Middleweight (160 lbs.)
  • Frank Sanchez vs. Scott Alexander
    • Heavyweight
  • Gabriel Valenzuela vs. Yeis Gabriel Solano
    • Super lightweight (140 lbs.)
  • Terrell Gausha vs. KeAndre Leatherwood
    • Middleweight
  • Oleksandr Gvozdyk vs. Isaac Rodrigues
    • Light heavyweight (175 lbs.)
  • Curmel Moton vs. Ezequiel Flores
    • Super featherweight (130 lbs.)
  • Justin Viloria vs. Angel Barrera
    • Super featherweight
  • Bek Nurmaganbet vs. Abimbola Osundairo
    • Super middleweight (168 lbs.)
  • Abilkhan Amankul vs. Joeshon James
    • Middleweight (160 lbs.)

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Boardroom Staff