Get set for Kattar vs. Emmett, Cowboy vs. Lauzon, Kevin Holland, Joaquin Buckley, Adrian Yanez, and more at UFC Fight Night in Texas with the latest betting odds and picks from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Cody Stamann and Phil Hawes Both to Win
(-168; 2.0 Units)
Last week, Manel Kape was scratched due to weight issues with his opponent. The two-legger remains just 10-5 on that voided bet as a result.
This week, we’re laying more units on a line with more juice than normal. Hey, I guess everything is bigger in Texas.
This week’s parlay has to start with Cody Stamann (-530). Stamann has suffered three straight setbacks to ranked bantamweights, but he’ll have a great chance to rebound this weekend. He’s got a date with Eddie Wineland, and Wineland is just a knockout against Grigory Popov (0-2 in UFC and now cut) away from a five-fight skid himself against unranked fighters.
At 37 years old, Wineland just doesn’t produce a modern UFC offensive threat against high-level opponents. He lands only 3.40 significant strikes per minute on wretched 29% accuracy, and that’s come with just 0.34 takedowns per 15 minutes. Stamann (+0.63 striking success rate) might even be able to get this job done on the feet without going to his trademark ground game.
For the other leg, I love the position Phil Hawes (-260) has this weekend. He’s got a seven-inch reach advantage on fellow middleweight wrestler Deron Winn. Winn is only 5-foot-6, so he’s struggled to strike (-0.43 striking success rate) in this division. His lone UFC win came in a 12-takedown battering of Antonio Arroyo.
The problem? Hawes has a 100% takedown defense, including stuffing all six against multi-time UFC winner — and larger human — Kyle Daukaus. It’s hard to see Winn just not getting picked apart at range by Hawes’ lethal 56% striking accuracy.
These numbers should continue to balloon this week, so get this number as low as you can.
Calvin Kattar and Josh Emmett Go the Distance
(-112; 1.0 Unit)
That’s the number of fights that a top-10 featherweight has lost inside the distance since the start of 2019. We saw it earlier this year in Alexander Volkanovski’s lopsided title defense over Chan Sung Jung.
This division continues to produce brutal, full-distance affairs, and Saturday’s main event should be no different.
The favorite, Calvin Kattar (-245), has the lower striking defense at 51%, but the Bostonian has an other-worldly chin. He’s the UFC record holder for significant strikes absorbed in a fight (445), and he’s never been knocked out in a pro or amateur appearance.
Josh Emmett (+186) will give Kattar the striking match he desires. Emmett averages just 1.25 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he’s landed zero since his major knee surgery. Emmett’s 63% striking defense is elite, and he’s only been knocked out once in his 16-fight career.
These two have sent other weaker strikers into the shadow realm but are fairly well-matched, so this appears to be 25 minutes on the docket between two warriors.
Dart Throw of the Week: Roman Dolidze by KO/TKO
(+750; 0.25 Units)
The dart board isn’t very appealing this week, but I do think there’s a tiny bit of value here.
Roman Dolidze (+172) and Kyle Daukaus are both phenomenal grapplers. They both average over 2.40 takedowns and 1.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Pitting them together, the fight could end up becoming a striking match.
In fact, Daukaus is expecting one. That’s interesting considering Dolidze’s takedown defense (53%) is one on paper he can exploit. If this fight stays standing, Daukaus may not like the ending.
He has just a 40% striking defense, but he’s just not been forced to be at distance much. At least 63.3% of every one of Daukaus’ fights has been in his control or his opponents’.
Dolidze is actually a better striker than you’d ever guess watching him. He landed a knockout in his debut, holds a +0.96 striking success rate, and has plus marks in both striking accuracy (48%) and striking defense (64%).
Daukaus could be overwhelmed on the feet, so this is just a small dart that Dolidze’s power produces an explosive result.
UFC Austin Fight Card
Main Card (ESPN & ESPN+)
Featherweight: Calvin Kattar vs. Josh Emmett
Lightweight: Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon
Welterweight: Kevin Holland vs. Tim Means
Middleweight: Joaquin Buckley vs. Albert Duraev
Lightweight: Damir Ismagulov vs. Guram Kutateladze
Middleweight: Julian Marquez vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Preliminary card (ESPN2 & ESPN+)
Bantamweight: Adrian Yanez vs. Tony Kelley
Women’s Flyweight: Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Natália Silva
Welterweight: Court McGee vs. Jeremiah Wells
Featherweight: Ricardo Ramos vs. Danny Chavez
Strawweight: Maria Oliveira vs. Gloria de Paula
Bantamweight: Eddie Wineland vs. Cody Stamann
Middleweight: Phil Hawes vs. Deron Winn
Middleweight: Roman Dolidze vs. Kyle Daukaus