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UConn vs. Miami: Are Oddsmakers Backing Another Upset?

Last Updated: July 1, 2023

This article originally appeared at FanDuel.

The Madness rolls on! Check out our big Miami vs. UConn prediction and best bet, plus the latest odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

The 2023 NCAA Tournament continues Saturday with a great Final Four matchup between the No. 5 Miami Hurricanes and No. 4 UConn Huskies. Miami men’s basketball is aiming to earn its first-ever NCAA championship game appearance, while a win gets UConn back to their first such matchup since 2014.

Miami pulled off an 88-81 upset win over Texas on Sunday behind Jordan Miller’s standout outing (27 points on 7-7 shooting). Meanwhile, Dan Hurley’s Connecticut squad crushed Gonzaga by a score of 82-54 on Saturday as Jordan Hawkins scored a team-high 20 points.

So, which team will advance with an unforgettable win? Check out our best UConn vs. Miami prediction below, as well as the latest odds and betting insights from

Click here to read Boardroom’s full 2023 NCAA Men’s Final Four futures betting overview.

Connecticut vs. Miami Game Info

2022-23 NCAA Tournament Final Four

No. 10 Connecticut Huskies (29-8)
No. 16 Miami (FL) Hurricanes (29-7)
Date: Saturday, April 1, 2023
Time: 8:49 p.m. ET
Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
US TV Coverage: CBS

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UConn vs. Miami Odds & Spread

All college basketball betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: UCONN: (-240) | MIAMI: (+195)
  • Spread: UCONN: -5.5 (-114) | MIAMI: +5.5 (-106)
  • Total: 149.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

UConn enters this contest as a moderate favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook’s odds. This Final Four clash also features an over/under of 149.5 points, with both sides available at -110 odds.

Miami vs. Connecticut Betting Trends

  • UConn has 25 wins in 37 games against the spread this season.
  • As 5.5-point favorites or more, the Huskies are 16-9 against the spread.
  • Out of 37 Connecticut’s games so far this season, 20 have hit the over.
  • Miami has covered the spread 22 times in 36 games.
  • The Hurricanes have an ATS record of 3-0 as 5.5-point underdogs or greater.
  • Miami has seen 17 of its 36 games hit the over.
UConn RankUConn Avg.MetricMiami Avg.Miami Rank
27th78.8Points Scored79.621st
35th64.4Points Allowed71.9236th
7th11.5Off. Rebounds8.9140th
30th9.13pt Made7.5166th

UConn vs. Miami Prediction & Pick

It’s safe to say that both Miami and UConn deserve to battle it out for a spot in the championship. The Hurricanes have beaten three top-four seeds and have not been favored in a game since the first round. Meanwhile, the Huskies have taken down each of their four opponents by an average of 22.5 points.

What stands out for Miami is its ability to adjust. The Hurricanes took down a sizeable Indiana team by outrebounding the Hoosiers by 17. They then beat a defensively gifted Houston team by draining 11 three-pointers and slowed down a fast Texas team with 32 trips to the free-throw line.

UConn has few weaknesses to exploit, though. The Huskies allow an opponent three-point percentage of 29.7% (No. 13 in NCAA) and control the boards by averaging 39.3 rebounds per game (No. 10 in NCAA). They also shoot a reliable 76.0% from the free throw line (No. 37 in NCAA).

This one is going to be close, but I don’t expect UConn’s dominance to end on Saturday night.

MIAMI vs. UCONN FINAL SCORE Prediction: UConn 76, Miami 72

Miami vs. UConn Best Bet

UConn enters this one with the edge in a few statistical categories, but those advantages are not enough to warrant a 5.5-point spread. This is a Miami team that has been winning outright as an underdog all season long and knows how to both play with a considerable lead or fight back from a large deficit.

Miami is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games overall, 5-1 ATS in its last six Saturday games away from home and 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games against UConn. Not only that, but five of the last 10 Final Four games have also been decided by fewer than six points. Don’t expect a blowout here.

MIAMI vs. CONNECTICUT BEST BET: Miami Hurricanes +5.5 (-106)

Larry Rupp

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