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Charles Oliveira vs. Beneil Dariush: Who Has the Oddsmakers’ Edge at UFC 289?

Last Updated: July 1, 2023

This article originally appeared at FanDuel.

Lock in for “the people’s main event” with a big UFC 289 Dariush vs. Oliveira prediction, plus the latest odds and betting insights from our friends at FanDuel.

There may not be two title fights on this week’s pay-per-view card, but that doesn’t mean that UFC 289 is lacking when it comes to a co-main event.

In a matchup that came pretty close to happening for the lightweight championship at one point, Charles Oliveira will take on Beneil Dariush. There’s a really good chance this one determines the next challenger for Islam Makhachev’s title belt at 155 pounds.

Here’s everything that fans and bettors need to know about the lightweight co-main event at UFC 289, including our big Oliveira vs. Dariush prediction.

Beneil Dariush vs. Charles Oliveira Fight Info, Date & Time: UFC 289

UFC 289 Co-main Event Lightweight Bout
Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (33-9-0, 9 KOs, 21 Submissions)
Beneil Dariush (22-4-1, 5 KOs, 8 Submissions)
Date: Saturday, June 10, 2023
Fight Time: This will be the fourth fight on the main card, which begins at 10 p.m. ET.
Venue: Rogers Center, Vancouver, British Columbia
US TV coverage: ESPN+ PPV

This will be Oliveira’s first time back in the octagon since losing his championship to Islam Makhachev back in October. For Dariush, who is riding an eight-fight win streak, a victory here would all but guarantee him his first chance at UFC gold.

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Oliveira vs. Dariush Odds & Prop Bets

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and subject to change over time.

BetCharles Oliveira OddsBeneil Dariush Odds
To Win the Fight+120-154
To Win by KO/TKO+550+260
To Win by Submission+320+500
To Win by Points/Decision+600+360

UFC 289 Oliveira vs. Dariush Prediction

Beneil Dariush is a tough guy to get a feel for because he’s done exactly what a top MMA fighter should do — string together decisive wins — but he hasn’t really done it against top competition.

Mateusz Gamrot is a promising prospect he beat, sure, but not exactly a championship-level opponent. Before that was the corpse of Tony Ferguson, Carlos Diego Ferreira, Scott Holtzman, and Drakkar Klose. They’re all long-time UFC veterans, but only Ferguson has ever really reached a high level (and he hasn’t won a fight since 2019). Ferreira’s loss to Dariush was part of a 3-fight losing skid, while Holtzman is just 7-6 overall in the UFC. Klose’s only really impressive win was a narrow decision over Bobby Green.

This isn’t to discount Dariush’s wins, but we need to keep that level of competition in mind when we compare how he’s looked recently to how Oliveira has looked.

Do Bronx has generally been pretty reliant on finishes to pick up his wins, but it’s not like these have been come-from-behind Hail Mary wins.  He dropped Justin Goethe and finished Michael Chandler with strikes. He out-landed Dustin Poirier 73 to 47 in significant strikes. He’s obviously capable of submitting just about anyone.

I love Dariush’s game. I’m constantly impressed by how cerebral he is in the octagon (just listen to the lucid way he talks through minute details of a fight in his post-fight interviews). That said, I think a huge leap in competition makes this one a coin flip. Even with only three rounds, I still think the former champ pulls it off.

DARIUSH vs. OLIVEIRA PREDICTION: Give me Charles Oliveira to win.

Beneil Dariush vs. Charles Oliveira Best Bet

The betting markets have never been especially high on Oliveira, even throughout his championship run. He was an underdog against Tony Ferguson, Dustin Poirier, and Islam Makhachev in his last five fights and wasn’t an overwhelming favorite against Michael Chandler or Justin Gaethje, either.

And honestly, I’ve usually agreed. Fighters who rely on finishes often get overrated, especially if they’re relying on finishes to win fights when they’re behind. But I think things are going a little too far here. If that Mahachev fight hadn’t happened, would Oliveira be an underdog here? Probably not. But we really didn’t see anything out of the ordinary in that fight — Makhachev is just that good. And do we really think Dariush would fare any better? A recent split decision against Diego Ferreira tells me probably not.

It pains me because I usually love to fade Oliveira, and as mentioned above I’m a big fan of Dariush’s game, but the betting line seems off here.

UFC 289 BEST BET: Charles Oliveira to win (+120)

Jason Schandl

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