Your curated list of wagers for Week 7 of the NFL season, from moneylines and player props to overlooked underdogs.
That was a tough go last week. Even the one victory (Colts -2.5) was a generous one, but at the same time, two losses (Ravens blowing it at the Giants; Bills-Chiefs Over) were of the cruel variety and could’ve easily gone the other way. We must move on.
Let’s look toward Week 7 of the NFL with the best value bets.
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NFL Week 7 Best Bets Overview 2022
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best Over/Under Bet of Week 7
New York Jets at Denver Broncos
- Over/Under: 38.5
Ugly games can be fun displays when money is at stake. This clash between the Jets and Broncos fits that bill and is worth perusing as far as the over/under goes.
The linesmakers certainly anticipate such “action,” hence why they attached the lowest total on the board of Week 7. Two really strong defenses mixed with a pair of un-intimidating offenses is the reason why.
The Broncos, of course, are scoring fewer points each week (15.1) than anyone around the league. Nathaniel Hackett — in his first gig as a head coach — and Russell Wilson have, well, not meshed at all, as the former Seahawks signal-caller is posting career-worst marks in passer rating (83.4) and completion percentage (58.6 percent). Additionally, he’s on pace to average the fewest TDs of his NFL journey.
Making things even more difficult is that Wilson is dealing with a hamstring injury that labels him as questionable entering Sunday. The inspiration for the (now-cancelled) Subway Dangerwich has been a limited participant in practice this week and if he does play, I feel good about containing him while out of rhythm.
If Wilson can’t go, Brett Rypien would get the nod for his second start in the pros. Though his lone other start actually came in a win against the Jets (a Thursday Night under I lost, by the way), that was two years ago. And this is a far better D he’ll be squaring off with this time around.
Without question, the defense of Gang Green has been the main culprit in New York’s ascension to 4-2. They’re a well-balanced group, being one of just four teams to rank in the top 12 in both fewest passing yards (207.8) and fewest rushing yards (105.3) allowed. They’ve also been exceptional in the takeaways department.
The Jets are looking especially impressive on this side of the ball during their current three-game winning streak, even limiting Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to just 10 points last week at Lambeau. They’re clearly a top defense and it’s hard to envision a struggling Broncos offense make any sort of dent on the scoreboard.
While Denver has been severely challenged supplying points, at least they’ve done an excellent job preventing the opposition from doing so as well. Offenses are plating just 16.5 points and 290.3 total yards versus the Broncos, residing this defense in the top five of both categories. Their 19 sacks also place them tied for fourth among all 32 clubs.
Offensively, the Jets’ identity is built on establishing the run, which is music to the ears of anyone betting an under. That game script serves to continually chew through clock, and should New York elect to throw more, Zach Wilson will be challenged by a squad that is holding opposing QBs to a harmless 75.1 passer rating.
Any way you slice it (the game; not the Dangerwich), this will most likely play out as a slow and plodding contest. Exactly what we want to unfold.
With the total being so low, but fairly around a key tally in over/unders, I’m buying a point and a half (rarely recommended) to have that number of 40 in case of a potential 23-17/27-13 final.
Pick: UNDER 40 (-145)
Best Spread Bet of Week 7
None.
We’re going to alter things a little bit different this week. I really liked that Cardinals -2.5 spread at home against the Saints on Thursday Night Football but didn’t pull the trigger. Since no other side sticks out more than that one, we’re going to take a bye week from spreads. The universal No. 1 rule for gambling should be to never force a bet (I’ve personally preached that for the last 10-plus years), and so I’ll abide by that true sentiment.
But — keep scrolling on down for an extra prop bet this week if that’s in your alley.
Best Teaser Bet (3 games, 10 points) of Week 7
- Buccaneers -13 —> -3
- Ravens -6.5 —> +3.5
- PIT/MIA U45.5 —> U55.5
A lot of teasers last week featured Tom Brady and/or Lamar Jackson simply needing to win on the road against decidedly weaker opponents. Neither secured the ‘W’ and we were a victim of that, too, with the latter falling to the G-Men.
So, let’s try it again in even easier situations — now, seeking a win from both QBs that rarely lose consecutive bouts.
Brady is 13-3 in games following a loss in which he was a favorite by a touchdown or more. The matchup is certainly a juicy one, as his Bucs will be taking on what has to unquestionably be the biggest mess in the NFL right now. The Panthers are spiraling out of control, even offering franchise talent for bargain-bin prices. And “best” of all (at least when it comes to betting against them), they have P.J. Walker riding the quarterback saddle.
Walker looked dreadful in his first start of the year last Sunday. And that was before exiting early with an injury. Now, he’s taking on one of the better defensive units that will no doubt be angry after that Week 6 upset. Tampa should roll and we’ll hope it’s by more than a mere field goal.
Meanwhile, at around the same kickoff time, Baltimore faces an opponent that is far lighter than a week ago. That said, it’s also not a pushover. Despite entering with a 2-4 record, the Browns have played respectably given the circumstances they opted into and can provide a tough division matchup.
If his past is any indication, Jackson relishes a match-up against rival Cleveland. In seven career starts taking on this opponent, Jackson owns his best passer rating (97.5) against any of his AFC North foes. He’s registered 71.6 yards on the ground in these games as well. If not for one of those meetings seeing the 2019 MVP leave early, that rushing average would be a lot higher. He’s also led the Ravens to 29.3 points on average.
Since the Bucs spread exceeds the double-digits, we’ll want to add a third contest, and as a result, we’ll look to this week’s Sunday night affair when Pittsburgh and Miami collide in South Beach. “Collide” might be a good word to describe this subpar clash.
Both these teams were recently dinged by concussions to their respective starting quarterbacks. Each one will be returning, but it remains to be seen if they’re close to 100 percent. The Dolphins’ offense looked sharp when Tua Tagovailoa was at full health, but even if that’s the case here, what could the Steelers possibly offer behind Kenny Pickett for an over in the mid-50s? Not much, and that figures to be the key to keeping this one from getting out of hand.
Best Prop Bet of Week 7
- Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 32.5 Pass Attempts
For the first time since 2018, Aaron Rodgers has lost multiple games in a row in the same season. Knowing his trademark competitiveness, don’t think the future Hall-of-Famer is taking it lightly.
When this rare event occurs, elite competitors like Rodgers, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes tend to want the ball in their hands (yes, even more than taking every possible offensive snap) and to be more in control. Thus, we land on this curiously-low Rodgers pass-attempts prop
In any scenario, the first-team All-Pro is usually a good bet to chuck it plenty. Here, though, he just needs to make 33 throws, and in the aforementioned situation of coming off a losing streak.
Looking back on Rodgers’ illustrious career, stretches of consecutive losses were few and far between. When he would be mired in one, however, Green Bay’s QB1 had no problem taking it to the air.
Across the 17 instances Rodgers was playing in an NFL regular season contest following at least two straight defeats, he averaged 37.4 pass attempts the very next game — and only once did he not reach 30. So, the floor is close to the line set by the linesmakers.
True, the Packers have a very winnable match-up on deck, which could point to a run-heavy strategy in the second half if they’re sitting on a lead. Then again, we’re talking about Aaron Rodgers, who is always out for blood and has no problem sending a message with authority. No matter how the game plays out, he’s a smart bet to throw it at least 33 times.
Pick: OVER 32.5 Pass Attempts (-114)
Co-Best Prop Bet of Week 7
- Jacoby Brissett Over/Under 11.5 Rushing Yards
If there’s a quarterback that has even just an inkling of scrambling ability, and is about to face Lamar Jackson in his house, how do they resist the urge to run a bit?
Answer: They most likely don’t. For the purposes of this bet, we only care how Jacoby Brissett will respond in such a scenario for this first key division meeting.
It can be argued that Brissett isn’t as much of a running quarterback compared to his earlier years in the league. In fact, he only recorded one game last year with double-digit yardage utilizing his legs.
However, there appears to be a sort of return to the old Jacoby Brissett, at least as it concerns his scrambling. Through six games, the former Patriots third-round draft choice has recorded at least 10 rushing yards in all but one of them. Here, he just needs 12 yards for a prop victory.
Also of note, his frequency to take it the ground has increased again as well, clocking in with at least three rush attempts in each start prior to last week’s blowout loss (against his old team, mind you). If he goes for a run at least three times in Week 7, that should gain 12-plus yards.
Pick: OVER 11.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
NFL Best Bets Record for the 2022 Season
- Over/Unders: “2-4”
- Spreads: “3-3”
- Teasers: “2-2-1”
- Props: “1-4”
- Overall Record*: “8-13-1,” -10.67 units
*Each over/under is graded to win 2 units; everything else for 1 unit
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