Your curated list of wagers for Week 12 of the NFL season, from moneylines and player props to overlooked underdogs.
There’s nothing quite like Thanksgiving Day football — not to mention the leftovers that will be devoured on Sunday and Monday. Hopefully, this is what can snap us out of our dry spell from a week ago.
Now to partake in a feast of NFL Week 12 best bets that properly roll us into the holiday season.
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NFL Week 12 Best Bets Overview 2022
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best Over/Under Bet of Week 12
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
- Over/Under: 43
As much attention as San Francisco has received for the addition of Christian McCaffrey to its offense, let’s not forget they trot out a legitimately elite defense.
Yes, the 49ers are cranking out more than 50 additional total yards per game and even an extra touchdown-plus since reeling out draft picks for the services of the former Carolina Panther. But it’s the D that should be regarded as the club’s leading strength, hence why they’re actually the No. 1-ranked unit in the NFL.
Nobody is allowing fewer yards per game than the 49ers (283.9), who lead this category by a decisive amount. They’re also yielding just 17.3 points on a weekly basis, third-lowest among all 32 clubs, while also being tagged for the fewest first downs and third-fewest penalties as well.
Even with Arik Armstead (foot, ankle) sidelined, this is still a group getting it done in every facet. And with Andy Dalton coming to town for their next assignment, expect that type of strong play to continue. As a bonus, Alvin Kamara (illness) is under the weather and doesn’t figure to be at full strength if he plays.
Though San Francisco can be explosive on the offensive side of the ball, which threatens any under wager, we’re also getting a quality defense in this matchup as the opposition. The Saints, after all, boasted a top-10 D in each of the last two seasons, and while that hasn’t been the case in 2022, we’d be remiss if we didn’t consider that there have been several injuries.
Well, the Saints are getting some of those key names back, most notably Cameron Jordan (eye). Additionally, top corner Marshon Lattimore (abdomen) got in three limited practices this week and is a candidate to return, too. When their main guys are healthy, New Orleans certainly possesses a defense that is better than its currently-middle-of-the-pack rankings.
Either way, I expect the Niners to control the tempo, and in turn, that should lead to a lot of running plays — the preferred strategy when pinpointing on an under.
San Francisco’s run the ball 51.4 percent of the time during its present three-game winning streak, which is the fourth-highest tendency in the league during this span. Such a game plan works to our advantage in eating through time and keeping the clock moving smoothly.
Just to be sure we can pull out this bet, I advise buying the number to 44 as a way to be protected in a 27-17 type of ballgame.
The Pick: UNDER 44 (-130)
Best Point Spread Bet of Week 12
None.
Tough slate out there. There is an extra prop bet to explore, however.
Best Teaser Bet (4 teams, 13 points) of Week 12
Rarely these days does the opportunity present itself in a teaser for the practical equivalent of the free space on a bingo card. Such will be the case this weekend.
Not many teams have fallen as hard and as quickly as the Rams, though in their defense, that’s been due to injuries. Star wideout Cooper Kupp is out for the foreseeable future and it appears LA will also be on its third-string quarterback, Bryce Perkins, he of zero NFL experience.
Yeah, uh, they’re not going into Arrowhead and beating the league’s best team and MVP — and all the Chiefs have to do is win by at least a mere field. Nice.
Obviously, we still need other hits outside that free space. Those voids, fortunately, can be occupied by a trio of underdogs.
Arizona looks like it’s getting Kyler Murray back under center, which is probably the most important item when handicapping a Cardinals game. It’s surprising to see them ever getting points at home, so being able to have them +16.5 seems generous. Only once has Murray been beaten at home by more than 10 points in the last three years, but that can be excused considering it was against the mighty Chiefs.
The Raiders look like another promising underdog, too, being a fellow fringe playoff contender seeking to hang on.
Derek Carr and Co. are also coming off a momentous overtime win opposite Denver last week, which I anticipate propels them into a stretch of at-least-competitive football. That’s what they were exhibiting anyway before their recent three-game losing streak, and this Seahawks team they’re facing is one they can hang with.
Lastly, we’ll try to end this wager successfully with the inclusion of the Packers. It is quite uncommon for Aaron Rodgers to be an underdog of around a touchdown, and so we’ll look to capitalize on that by getting the future Hall of Famer 19.5 points instead. The Eagles are unquestionably enjoying a very successful season, but they just haven’t been as dominant the last few weeks, suggesting Green Bay should be a tough enough go for them.
Best Prop Bet of Week 12
- BUF/DET – Each team to score 1+ TDs & 1+ FGs (-170)
This week’s prop was relegated to Twitter. As a reminder, make sure you’re following @MattZylbert when these rare circumstances strike, and those who did see it in time should be extra thankful that we barely avoided what would’ve been a(nother) bad beat. Imagine “losing” because of this:
Co-Best Prop Bet of Week 12
- Courtland Sutton Over/Under 4.5 Receptions
Courtland Sutton is a good football player. Unfortunately, he plays for genuinely one of the worst offenses in recent memory.
While that may be the case, it’s also one that can be read easier than others — at least while numerous regulars are out.
Melvin Gordon was just curiously released. Jerry Jeudy (ankle) landed on the sidelines a couple of weeks ago and hasn’t returned. Ditto that for KJ Hamler (hamstring) after getting hurt in October. Javonte Williams (knee) and Tim Patrick (knee) have been long gone in addition.
So, that’s a pretty big void to fill in the passing game. Enter our man of focus as it pertains to this bet, Sutton, someone that already sees a good number of looks from Russell Wilson. He just received a hearty 18 targets the last two weeks alone
With this in mind, Sutton is easy to designate as the de facto No. 1 wideout in this miserable offense (which isn’t his fault). Wilson will look at him even more.
The Pick: OVER 4.5 Receptions (-120)
NFL Best Bets Record for the 2022 Season
- Over/Unders: “4-7”
- Spreads: “4-4-1”
- Teasers: “2-6-1”
- Props: “6-7”
- Overall Record*: “16-24-2,” -17.61 units
*Each over/under is graded to win 2 units; everything else for 1 unit
**Does not include Thanksgiving Day prop
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