This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research
Get ready for a pivotal Week 11 of the NFL season with expert picks and predictions, courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board — one side, one total, and one player prop. They’ll share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they’re on that bet.
All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Note: Betting lines and numberFire’s player projections may change after this article is published.
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NFL Expert Betting Picks for Week 11
Jim Sannes, Digital Media Managing Editor
Side: Buffalo Bills -7 (-110)
This has shifted to -7 from -6.5 earlier in the week, so you now push on 7, but I’m still showing a lot of value. The Bills offense has been really, really efficient this year. You just have to decide whether their wild turnover rate is sustainable. Josh Allen has cut down his turnover-worthy play rate, but the results have swung against him. They’re now facing a Jets team that will struggle to exploit their banged-up defense, so I think this is a spot where laying the 7 is fully justifiable.
Total: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers over 41.5 (-110)
Player Prop: George Kittle Under 41.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
Austin Swaim, Senior Editor
Side: New York Giants +9.5 (-115)
Total: Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers Over 41.5 (-115)
Player Prop: Josh Jacobs Over 17.5 Rush Attempts (-114)
Unless the Dolphins have absolutely torched the Raiders early, Jacobs’ current workload with the new regime should comfortably eclipse this prop. He’s gotten at least 26 carries in both games, and 19 of his 27 carries last week came either tied or trailing. He’s projected for 17.9 carries by numberFire’s model, and I expect a heavy dose of Las Vegas’ lead tailback against a Miami defense that ranks 25th against the rush in numberFire’s schedule-adjusted metrics.
Austan Kas, Senior Editor
Side: Miami Dolphins -12.5 (-115)
Total: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills Under 40.0 (-115)
Player Prop: Calvin Ridley Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
I think this is the week Calvin Ridley goes off. He’s played at least 86% of the snaps in three straight games, and while Ridley was officially targeted just three times last week, he was more involved than that, drawing a trio of penalties, as well. The Titans are a quality matchup, too, as they are allowing the third-most catches per game to wideouts along with the seventh-most receiving yards per game to the position.
Tom Vecchio, Editor
Side: Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 (-120)
Total: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars Under 40.5 (-115)
Player Prop: Terry McLaurin Anytime TD (+185)
Over the last five weeks, McLaurin has a 24.2% target share, 33.9% air yards share, and 28.6% red zone target share. Those rates have all increased compared to his season numbers and McLaurin has just one TD in this span. The Giants have allowed the third-most (10) to receivers this season, putting McLaurin in a great spot.
Kenyatta Storin, Editor
Side: Houston Texans -4.5 (-115)
C.J. Stroud is still a longshot to win MVP, but the fact he’s even in the conversation as a rookie speaks volumes. He’s led a team that ranks fourth in schedule-adjusted passing offense and ninth in adjusted total offense, per numberFire’s metrics. While Arizona got a big boost from the return of Kyler Murray last week, a win over the Arthur Smith-led Falcons isn’t a particularly high bar, and we shouldn’t expect them to hang with a Houston squad that now has playoff aspirations. Most notably, the Cardinals rank 29th in adjusted total defense and 28th against the pass.
Total: Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers Over 41.5 (-115)
Player Prop: Christian McCaffrey Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Aidan Cotter, Writer
Side: Dallas Cowboys -10.5 (-110)
I don’t understand this line at all. Aside from a stinker against the Cardinals, Dallas has absolutely crushed inferior competition. Five of their six wins have come by at least 20 points, and they’ve eclipsed 40 points in two of their last three games. Meanwhile, the Panthers are a dumpster fire. Coming off a loss to the Tyson Bagent-led Bears, Carolina is changing play-calling duties, again! That’s not great — especially with numberFire’s third-ranked defense up next. Dallas should cruise here.
Total: Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers Over 43.5 (-115)
Player Prop: DeVonta Smith Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Zack Bussiere, Writer
Side: Dallas Cowboys -10.5 (-110)
Total: Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers Over 41.5 (-115)
Player Prop: Trey McBride Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
After a slow start to the season, Trey McBride is now in the midst of a breakout campaign. Entering Week 10, he was being targeted on 27% of his routes — an elite number. The question that remained was would the change in quarterback to Kyler Murray have an impact? The answer was yes — a very positive one. In Week 10, McBride recorded a 78% route participation, was targeted on 32% of his routes, and commanded a 30% target share, finishing with 8 receptions on 9 targets for 131 yards. Consider the connection established. In Week 11, he will face the Texans. The Cardinals are 5.5-point underdogs in a game with the highest total of the week. I expect Arizona to have to pass in this one to keep pace with C.J. Stroud, and McBride will be a focal point of that plan.
Gabriel Santiago, Writer
Side: Miami Dolphins -12.5 (-115)
Miami should win the matchup on both sides of the football in this one. We know what the Dolphins can do on offense. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is tied for the touchdown lead (19) right now while Miami is the top-scoring team in the league (31.7 PPG). With speedsters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on hand, I don’t think the Raiders’ secondary can keep up. Across the field, Aidan O’Connell has a 2-1 record as a starter. Still, the rook from Purdue hasn’t exactly shined just yet; he yields a 2:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Also, O’Connell has displayed just 5.6 adjusted yards per attempt. In his first pro start traveling back to the Eastern time zone, I am not high on AOC and the Vegas offense. Laying 12.5, I’ll take the ‘Fins to win by two touchdowns.
Total: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns Under 32.5 (-102)
Player Prop: CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD (+100)
Annie Nader, Writer
Side: Houston Texans -5.5 (-115)
Total: Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions Under 47.5 (-105)
Player Prop: Luke Musgrave Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Jordan Love to Luke Musgrave connection has shaped up nicely as of late with Musgrave grabbing 50+ receiving yards over his last two games. This week, the Packers will face a Chargers team that gives up 291.2 yards in the air per game (most in NFL by nearly 25 yards), including 68.33 to tight ends. Musgrave is averaging 34.7 yards per game, and when paired with a recent increase in target share and a sacrificial pass defense, the bar here seems too low.
Nick Vazquez, Writer
Side: Detroit Lions -7.5 ( -115)
Total: Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams Under 46.5 (-105)
Player Prop: Austin Ekeler Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Ekeler has seen a 20% target share over the last three weeks. The Chargers are lacking a reliable pass catcher after Keenan Allen now that Mike Williams and Josh Palmer are both injured. Rookie Quentin Johnston doesn’t seem to have the trust of the coaching staff yet and has been largely ineffective. L.A. shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball against a mid-ranked Packers defense, who come in 15th against the pass, according to numberFire. Ekeler can clear this number by catching a lot of passes or could take one short pass for a long gain that would also get above this total.
Riley Thomas, Writer
Side: Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 (-120)
Total: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars Under 40.5 (-115)
Player Prop: CeeDee Lamb Over 82.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
CeeDee Lamb has been on an absolute tear, becoming the first player in NFL history to record at least 10 receptions and 150 receiving yards in 3 consecutive games. Look for that hot streak to continue against the Panthers. Carolina is expected to be without its top cornerbacks — Jaycee Horn and C.J. Henderson. Dak Prescott has been on a hot streak since Week 6 with 0.34 expected points added per dropback. The Panthers’ secondary should be vulnerable; Prescott and Lamb could have another field day.
Scott Edwards, Writer
Side: Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 (-120)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have found ways to win this season, and they now sit at 6-3. In a crucial division matchup against the Cleveland Browns, head coach Mike Tomlin should be able to coach them up to take a win in this one. With Deshaun Watson out for the year due to his shoulder injury, the Browns are forced to turn to rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson on Sunday. The Steelers’ defense should be able to keep a DTR-led offense out of the end zone while they wait for theirs to put anything together. They should cover with ease.
Total: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers Over 41.5 (-110)
Player Prop: David Montgomery Anytime TD (-135)
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