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Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane: Are Oddsmakers Backing ‘Bones’ to Make History at UFC 285?

Last Updated: July 1, 2023
Get set for UFC 285 with a big Jones vs. Gane prediction, plus the latest odds and betting insights from FanDuel Sportsbook.

It’s been 1,119 days since Jon Jones stepped inside a UFC octagon. It’s also been 928 days since Jones vacated his light heavyweight championship to announce his move to the UFC’s heavyweight division. After 13 years of light heavyweight domination, 15 title fights, and 11 divisional title defenses, Jones will finally face No. 1 contender, Ciryl Gane, for the vacant UFC heavyweight championship.

At 11-1 in the UFC, with his lone loss coming to Francis Ngannou, Gane has knocked out two fan favorites in his short career, Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa. The Frenchman carries true heavyweight power with a fast-twitch physique built on clinical striking and cat-like reflexes that a heavyweight fighter shouldn’t possess. Despite both competitors’ victorious tactics, each believes the other has holes in their game.

The UFC 285 main event is loaded with questions from fans patiently waiting years for answers. Our friends over at FanDuel Sportsbook again set razor-thin lines, with Jones as the slight favorite to win the heavyweight championship. Let’s examine the odds and major prop bets for Saturday’s Jon Jones versus Ciryl Gane vacant title fight, plus a big prediction.

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Ciryl Gane vs. Jon Jones Fight Info

UFC 285: Heavyweight Championship Main Event
Jon Jones (26-1-1 10 KOs, 6 Submissions)
Ciryl Gane (11-0-1 5 KOs, 3 Submissions)
Date: Saturday, March 4, 2023
Fight Time: Main card begins at 10 p.m. ET; main event approx. 12 a.m. ET
Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Coverage: ESPN+ PPV

Jones vs. Gane Odds to Win

All UFC 285 odds, lines, and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.


  • Jon Jones: -166
  • Ciryl Gane: +130

UFC 285 Jones vs. Gane Prop Bets

Method of victory

Jones by:

  • KO/TKO: +390
  • Points/decision: +200
  • Submission: +550

Gane by:

  • KO/TKO: +500
  • Points/decision: +320
  • Submission: +1300

Will the fight go the distance?

  • Yes: -122
  • No: -104

Over/under total rounds

  • OVER 4.5: -158
  • UNDER 4.5: +124

Jones vs. Gane Prediction: UFC 285

UFC 285 prediction percentages courtesy of Tapology Fight Predictions.

  • Projected winner: Jones (60%)
  • Projected method of victory: Decision (54%)

MMA fans haven’t seen Jon Jones compete in the octagon since a 2020 light heavyweight title defense against Dominick Reyes in which Bones pulled out a unanimous but controversial decision victory after a seven-month layoff.

As arguably the best MMA fighter of all time, Jones has a generational ability to mix striking and grappling, but observers have acknowledged a slip in Jon’s game noticed in his last two fights against Reyes and Thiago Santos. But despite not seeing Jon in the cage for quite some time, he has the experience, championship pedigree, and battle-tested IQ to pull off big wins.

In a way, Jones and Gane share similar attributes — they both like using their versatility and athletic backgrounds to dominate opponents and pick them apart. Nonetheless, if a powerful yet inexperienced wrestler like Ngannou could easily take down Gane, Jones has an excellent chance to do the same.

UFC 285 JONES vs. GANE PREDICTION: Jon Jones via decision (+180)

UFC 285 Betting Trends & Stats

  • Jon Jones defeated Dominick Reyes via decision in his most recent fight on Feb. 20, 2020.
  • Ciryl Gane defeated Tai Tuivasa by KO in his most recent fight on Sept. 3, 2022.
  • Jones averages 4.30 significant strikes landed per minute with a 57% accuracy rate.
  • Gane averages 5.11 significant strikes landed per minute with a 59% accuracy rate.
  • Jones averages 2.22 significant strikes absorbed per minute with a 64% defense rate.
  • Gane averages 2.25 significant strikes absorbed per minute with a 62% defense rate.
  • Jones has a 95% takedown defense rate.
  • Gane has a 55% takedown defense rate.

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