Derrick Lewis is the underdog against Sergey Spivak at UFC Vegas 65, but not by much. Boardroom looks at the odds and makes a prediction.
On the heels of UFC 281 last weekend, the Ultimate Fighting Championship shifts its focus to Las Vegas and UFC Vegas 65. Derrick Lewis is set to return in a heavyweight showcase against Sergey Spivak at the Apex Center to keep the division wheels turning without its champion Francis Ngannou.
The Black Beast and his well-documented knockout power once had Lewis on a four-fight win streak in the division. A KO of Curtis Blaydes led to an eventual interim championship opportunity. Since failing to capitalize on capturing the belt against Ciryl Gane, Lewis has lost three of his past four matchups. Although Lewis is always a threat due to his bone-shattering power, he’ll step into the octagon as a betting underdog to Spivak.
The versatile Moldovan possesses hellish power of his own, knocking out Augusto Sakai and Greg Hardy in his last two outings. Also known for his grappling, the 27-year-old will attempt to defeat a marquee name in Lewis, with aspirations of climbing to the top of the heavyweight division. Lewis and Spivak are similar in stature, possess an equivalent reach, and throw heavy blows at a similar pace. The only glaring difference in metrics is a 10-year age gap, with Lewis a decade older.
Throughout his entire UFC career, Lewis has fought the same way: with unreal power that could finish any man on the planet and roller-coaster inconsistency that periodically prevents that power from finding its targeted opponent. On the other hand, Spivak possesses a grapple-heavy approach that holds top position and smashes opponents into silly putty. Any way you spin it, the fighters have styles that will keep each other in danger of another, giving either man plenty of opportunities to finish the fight.
Let’s look at the odds and major prop bets for Saturday’s Lewis vs. Spivak main event heavyweight banger at UFC Vegas 65, courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook. Plus, a big fight prediction.
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Lewis vs. Spivak Fight Info
UFC Vegas 65 — Main Event Heavyweight Bout
No. 7 Derrick Lewis (26-10-1, 21 KOs, 1 Submission)
vs.
No. 12 Sergey Spivak (22-3-0 11 KOs, 7 Submissions)
Date: Saturday, November 19, 2022
Fight Time: The main card begins at 4 p.m. ET
Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, United States
Coverage: ESPN+
Lewis vs. Spivak Odds to Win
All UFC Vegas 65 odds, lines, and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
Derrick Lewis: +168
Sergey Spivak: -220
UFC Vegas 65 Lewis vs. Spivak Prop Bets
Method of Victory
Lewis by:
KO/TKO: +230
Points: +1400
Submission: +2600
Spivak by:
KO/TKO: +160
Points: +850
Submission: +280
Will the Fight Go the Distance?
Yes: +580
No: -1000
Over/Under Total Rounds
OVER 1.5: -116
UNDER 1.5: -110
Lewis vs. Spivak Prediction
UFC Vegas 65 Lewis vs. Spivak prediction percentages courtesy of Tapology Fight Predictions.
- Projected winner: Sergey Spivak (51%)
- Projected method of victory: KO/TKO (69%)
Spivak is the betting favorite here by a small margin, and for a good reason. He’s a grapple-heavy pressure fighter against an opponent with poor takedown defense. Once he gets his opponents to the ground, they tend not to return to their feet. In this case, the battle will be for Spivak to get the fight to the ground before he finds himself unconscious.
Although Lewis is the underdog, I still believe in his power. More so, I believe in his underrated precision and timing when throwing his overhand right. With the experience and power on his side, I’m picking Lewis to land a heavy shot in the counter of a grappling exchange to end the fight.
Lewis vs. Spivak Prediction: I’m taking Lewis by KO/TKO (+230) here.
UFC Vegas 65 Betting Trends & Stats
- Derrick Lewis was defeated by Sergei Pavlovich by TKO in his most recent fight on July 30, 2022.
- Sergei Spivak defeated Augusto Sakai by KO/TKO in his most recent fight on August 6, 2022.
- Lewis averages 2.57 significant strikes landed per minute with a 50% accuracy rate.
- Spivak averages 3.79 significant strikes landed per minute with a 51% accuracy rate.
- Lewis averages 2.57 significant strikes absorbed per minute with a 41% defense rate.
- Spivak averages 2.96 significant strikes absorbed per minute with a 55% defense rate.
- Lewis has a 55% takedown defense rate.
- Spivak has a 70% takedown defense rate.
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