Get set for golf’s third major of the year this week at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts with the latest odds and picks for the 2022 US Open.
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day comes that they ping a champion.
One of the oldest and most exclusive golf clubs in the country gets the major championship treatment this week, as the 2022 US Open heads to The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts. Fitting that this week’s venue highlights the heritage and history of the sport — and, importantly, its exclusivity — in the face of professional golf’s identity crisis.
Recent resignations from the PGA Tour won’t be notable this week: the USGA hosts the national open, and earned exemption or qualification is the only way into the field. Regardless of venue, one thing we know about the US Open is that class wins out. The regular USGA tropes apply of course — long distance, thick rough, fast greens — and our mettle test this week will be performance in difficult conditions and major championships.
A strong field means we have lots of options, and paying up into the very top of the market is difficult to justify with so many good options between 25/1 and 50/1. At the same time, the list of golfers who can actually win this week is short, and however interesting our average 100/1 shot may be, the fact remains that their chances of actually winning are remote. That means our card will be heavily tilted toward the top 20% of the market, but we can get some exposure to the long shots in the prop market.
For more info on The Country Club at Brookline along with this week’s key stats and Brandon Gdula’s win simulations, check out his article.
At the Top
Jon Rahm: +1500
Of the top four names in the market, Rahm has inarguably played the poorest this year. Each of the three names above him (Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, and Scottie Scheffler) has won within the last two months, including the first two major championships. Rahm was 27th at the Masters and 48th at the PGA Championship, which — along with his 55th at The Players Championship — are his worst results of 2022. He’s been 21st or better with a win and four more top 10s over that span, highlighting just how ridiculous our standards have become for Rahm. He isn’t finishing fifth or better every week, so he must be fading away from the pack.
In fact, Rahm is just fine, and as the longest number in this mini-tier at the top he’s the best value by default. This pick is by no means a process of elimination though. Long-term, Rahm is still first in ball-striking over his last 50 rounds, according to Fantasy National Golf Club, and his results in majors in 2021 and 2020 were 3rd, 1st, 8th, 5th, 7th, 23rd, and 13th.
Shane Lowry: +3000
Lowry has been among the very best iron players in the world this year, though ironically poor approach play likely cost him a shot at the PGA Championship last month. He still managed a T23 finish despite not having his best stuff, and prior to that his major championship form reads third, 12th, 65th, fourth, 21st. A poor final round in 2016 likely cost him a US Open, though of course that made his 2019 triumph at Royal Portrush all the sweeter. He’s otherwise held up quite well at this championship. Solid major championship chops and elite iron play all year make Lowry a solid bet at 30/1.
Dustin Johnson: +4400:
Well, it’s been an interesting couple weeks for DJ, to say the least. He resigned as a member of the PGA Tour in favor of LIV Golf, but still has plenty of qualifying exemptions for the US Open. If we can count on any one LIV golfer to shrug off any awkwardness on the tee box with his old PGA Tour and Ryder Cup comrades, it’s Johnson. Now, maybe the impending blowback affected him over the past few events, where he’s missed two cuts (including at the PGA Championship), and finished T59. But he’s played well at the season’s other marquee events — T12 at The Masters, 4th at the WGC Match Play, and T9 at The Players Championship.
Dustin Johnson’s major championship form over his career is terrific, strong enough that he ought have more than just his two, and the US Open in particular has been a strength. Starting from 2014 through the present, his finishes at the US Open are fourth, second, first, MC, 3rd, 35th, sixth, and 19th.
Brooks Koepka: +5000
Perhaps like Johnson, they are daring us with Brooks. Is he healthy? Who knows. Is he washed? Maybe. But it’s the US Open, and Brooks Freaking Koepka is 50/1! Take my money. He missed the 2020 edition with a knee injury, and even through wild swings in overall form, he’s managed terrific US Open results. From 2014 forward, he’s finished 4th, 18th, 13th, 1st, 1st, 2nd, and 4th. He has three finishes of sixth or better in 2021’s major championship slate (with a missed cut at The Masters the only blemish). The recent form isn’t so bad — just inconsistent. Before a T55 at the PGA and MC at the Masters, he was 12th at Valspar, MC at The Players, 16th at the Honda Classic, MC at Riviera, and T3 in Phoenix.
Justin Rose: +7000
Rose drew the eye even before a smoldering final round at the RBC Canadian Open where he flirted with 59 before ultimately landing on the most disappointing 60 of all time and finished T4. A T13 at the PGA Championship and T6 at Torrey Pines piqued our interest heading to Brookline, despite MC all around them. Form and equipment woes over the past couple years have sapped Rose’s well-rounded game, but with flames shooting out of his hands last week, he makes for an interesting option down the board.