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UFC 291: Odds, Props and Expert Betting Insights for Poirier vs. Gaethje, Blachowicz vs. Pereira & More

This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research.

Get set for the bang-bang pay-per-view action with a jam-packed UFC 291 odds rundown and the latest betting insights from the experts at FanDuel Research.

Less than a month since our last UFC pay-per-view event, UFC 291 will converge on “The Crossroads of the West” this weekend.

Set for Saturday (July 29), UFC 291 features a loaded fight card headlined by two of the best in the sport: Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier versus Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje.

Of course, everyone loves a rematch.

Whether it was Ali-Frazier, McEnroe-Bjorn, Fury-Wilder, Clemson-Bama, or even Potter-Voldemort, something about rematches truly play on the common person’s inner vengeance (incidentally leading to high-entertainment value). That is exactly what we’ll see when Poirier and Gaethje scrap the second time around.

With the Delta Center in Salt Lake City (home of the NBA’s Utah Jazz) hosting the PPV event, all eyes will be on the Beehive State — check out our UFC 291 odds overview featuring the latest betting insights from the experts at FanDuel Research.

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UFC 291 Odds & Betting Insights

All UFC 291 odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Main Event: Dustin Poirier (29-7, 1 NC) vs. Justin Gaethje (25-4-0)


Gaethje vs. Poirier Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook moneyline

  • Poirier: -160
  • Gaethje: +124

Will the fight go the distance?

  • Yes: +192
  • No: -260

Method of Victory

  • Poirier by KO/TKO: +210
  • Gaethje by KO/TKO: +250
  • Poirier by Points: +370
  • Gaethje by Points: +500
  • Poirier by Submission: +650
  • Gaethje by Submission: +2000

Although this UFC 291 card is fairly stacked, Poirier-Gaethje 2 is the match people are coming to see this weekend.

In their first clash back in 2018, Poirier and Gaethje highlighted UFC on FOX 29. In an event in Glendale, Arizona, the lightweights served as the Main event and delivered a fantastic show.

The bout resembled a kickboxing match, showcasing both fighters standing and exchanging blows at a high rate. Thirty seconds into the fourth round, Poirier swarmed Gaethje with a flurry of punches after landing a devastating left hand on Gaethje’s head. Moments later, the official stopped the fight after witnessing Gaethje’s sea legs when attempting to protect himself.

Fast forward back to the present, and the two lightweights are ready for more. If you like Poirier to win in the same fashion (KO/TKO) as he did in his first meeting with Gaethje, Poirier is currently +210 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Whether you have action on this clash or not, it will certainly be one not to miss; expect a war in the main event.

Jan Blachowicz (29-9-1) vs. Alex Pereira (7-2)

Light Heavyweight

Blachowicz vs. Pereira odds: FanDuel Sportsbook moneyline

  • Blachowicz: -122
  • Pereira: -104

Will the fight go the distance?

  • Yes: +192
  • No: -260

Method of Victory

  • Pereira by KO/TKO +170
  • Blachowicz by KO/TKO +340
  • Pereira by Points +600
  • Blachowicz by Points +350
  • Pereira by Submission +2300
  • Blachowicz by Submission +550

Looking to erase the memory of his previous bout last April, Alex Pereira is back in the octagon. He won’t have Israel Adesanya across from him this time, but he’ll still have his hands full with UFC veteran Jan Blachowicz.

According to the current UFC odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Blachowicz-Pereira shows the most narrow moneyline on Saturday’s main card. At the moment, Blachowicz is the ever-so-slight favorite (-122 moneyline), but a play on Pereira to win in Utah is also not yielding plus-money (-104 moneyline).

This one will also have national pride on the line. With Blachowicz representing Poland and Pereira from Brazil, two of the proudest fight nations in the world will be on display — will it be Polish power or Brazilian craft that reigns supreme on Saturday?

Blachowicz is coming off a split-decision draw in his most recent bout, which was against Magomed Ankalaev at UFC 282 (December 2022).

Stephen Thompson (17-6-1) vs. Michel Pereira (28-11, 2 NC)


Wonderboy vs. Pereira odds: FanDuel Sportsbook moneyline

  • Thompson: -166
  • Pereira: +130

Will the fight go the distance?

  • Yes -172
  • No +132

Method of Victory

  • Pereira by KO/TKO: +550
  • Thompson by KO/TKO: +360
  • Pereira by Points: +290
  • Thompson by Points: +145
  • Pereira by Submission: +1100
  • Thompson by Submission: +2200

With no relation to Alex Pereira, Michel Pereira will enter the octagon against Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson in Salt Lake City this weekend. Both men are coming off wins in their most recent bouts.

The tale of the tape has Thompson as an inch shorter than Pereira, but Thompson’s standing reach is two inches longer (75 inches versus Pereira’s 73).

Pereira is looking to notch his sixth consecutive victory on Saturday. Over his current five-fight win streak, he was won via decision four times (including a split-decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio in his last bout). That makes sense when you survey the “Will the fight go the distance?” odds, which shows “Yes” listed at -164.

Still, Thompson is 10 years Pereira’s senior despite Pereira having significantly more UFC experience. Regardless, Thompson is the moneyline favorite in this bout at -166.

Tony Ferguson (26-8) vs. Bobby Green (29-14-1, 1 NC)


Ferguson vs. Green odds: FanDuel Sportsbook moneyline

  • Green: -430
  • Ferguson: +300

Will the fight go the distance?

  • Yes: -110
  • No: -116

Method of Victory

  • Ferguson by KO/TKO +1100
  • Green by KO/TKO +180
  • Ferguson by Points: +600
  • Green by Points: +135
  • Ferguson by Submission: +1100
  • Green by Submission: +1100

Bobby Green is currently the chalkiest moneyline favorite (-430 odds at FD) on UFC 291’s main card. His opponent for Saturday — Tony Ferguson — is +300 to win outright.

Green is currently coming off his only “No Contest” of his UFC career — one that was sustained three months ago after accidentally clashing heads with Jared Gordon.

As alluded to, Ferguson is the longest underdog on Saturday’s Main card. However, Ferguson’s moneyline odds could present some value considering his reach is longer than Green’s by a staggering 5.5 inches, despite standing nearly identical in height.

In a clash of two fighters from Southern California, can Ferguson pull off the upset? Either way, I anticipate this bout to spend its fair share of time on the floor; both men love to grapple.

Michael Chiesa (18-6) vs. Kevin Holland (24-9, 1 NC)


Holland vs. Chiesa odds: FanDuel Sportsbook moneyline

  • Holland: -158
  • Chiesa: +124

Will the fight go the distance?

  • Yes: +166
  • No: -215

Method of Victory

  • Chiesa by KO/TKO: +1500
  • Holland by KO/TKO: +190
  • Chiesa by Points: +310
  • Holland by Points: +500
  • Chiesa by Submission: +410
  • Holland by Submission: +550

Rounding out the Main card is a bout between Michael Chiesa and Kevin Holland. Genuinely, it is a bit of an odd matchup.

Chiesa lost his past two fights, the more recent of which came via unanimous decision against Sean Brady in November 2021 — that means he has not fought in the UFC for approximately 19 months. On Saturday, will the welterweight show rest or rust?

Holland was victorious in his last bout, scoring a third-round knockout over Santiago Ponzinibbio at UFC 287 just three months ago. Still, he has lost two of his three most recent matches, with both losses coming via stoppage.

Aside from the drastic difference in time off for Chiesa and Holland, Chiesa’s leg reach is three inches longer than Holland’s. Oddly enough, Holland’s standing reach is 5.5 inches greater than Chiesa’s. Holland stands at 6-foot-3 while Chiesa is 6-foot-1.

Preliminary Bouts

  • Welterweight: Gabriel Bonfim (14-0) vs. Trevin Giles (16-4) — ML: -370/+265
  • Heavyweight: Derrick Lewis (26-11, 1 NC) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (21-9-1) — ML: +186/-245
  • Middleweight: Roman Kopylov (10-2) vs. Claudio Ribeiro (11-3) — ML: -220/+168
  • Welterweight: Jake Matthews (18-6) vs. Darrius Flowers (12-5-1) — ML: -290/+215

Early Prelims

  • Flyweight: CJ Vergara (11-4-1) vs. Vinicius Salvador (14-5) — ML: -160/+124
  • Welterweight: Matthew Semelsberger (11-5) vs. Uros Medic (8-1) — ML: -220/+168
  • Women’s flyweight: Miranda Maverick (13-5) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (12-4) — ML: -310/+230

— Gabriel Santiago

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