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Boardroom’s UFC 279 Betting Quick-start Guide

After one of the wildest fight weeks in recent MMA memory, it’s time for a revamped and *improved* UFC 279. Here’s what bettors need to know heading into Saturday night.

The time at which the cage door closes for UFC 279 draws nearer. Yet, one of the most convoluted last-minute undertakings in recent MMA history has altered the landscape of the entire event — and almost certainly for the better.

Khamzat Chimaev, Hakeem Dawodu, and Chris Barnett all missed weight Friday, throwing the card into chaos. Khamzat was seemingly unbothered despite weighing in at 178.5 pounds, 7.5 pounds over the non-title welterweight limit. Furthermore, Dawodu weighed 149.5 pounds, which is 3.5 pounds over the non-title featherweight limit. Lastly, Barnett weighed 267.5 pounds, 1.5 over the non-title heavyweight limit. (Yes, there’s a heavyweight limit.)

Bantamweights Irene Aldana and Macy Chiasson had their showdown modified to a catchweight of 140 pounds after each missed the set 136-pound limit with respective weigh-ins of 137.5 and 139.5.

As the UFC scrambled in the final hours of official weigh-ins, the organization shuffled the deck to create a new main card that fulfilled inciting anticipation.

Here’s the before and after:

Original UFC 279 Main Card:

  • Welterweight: Nate Diaz vs Khamzat Chimaev
  • Welterweight: Li Jingliang vs Tony Ferguson
  • Catchweight (180 lbs.): Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez
  • Bantamweight: Irene Aldana vs Macy Chiasson
  • Light Heavyweight: Johnny Walker vs Ion Cutelaba

Updated UFC 279 Main Card:

  • Welterweight: Nate Diaz vs Tony Ferguson
  • Catchweight (180 lbs.): Kevin Holland vs Khamzat Chimaev
  • Catchweight (180 lbs,): Li Jingliang vs Daniel Rodriguez
  • Catchweight (140 lbs.): Irene Aldana vs Macy Chiasson
  • Light Heavyweight: Johnny Walker vs Ion Cutelaba

With the help of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook, let’s run down everything you need to know about the new UFC 279 card.

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UFC 279 at a Glace

The Big Storyline:  Khamzat Chimaev misses the welterweight pound limit (178.5lbs) by a mile, causing a ripple effect that rearranges the entire card. Originally, “Borz” was scheduled to face Diaz in a bout that would see the Stockton, California iconoclast finish out his current UFC contract, likely ending his time with the promotion.

Instead, Diaz will face Ferguson in a long-awaited matchup that fight fans have been clamoring to see. Their distinct styles based on forward pressure, cardio, and volume are a recipe for an all-out war that could send Diaz into his post-UFC career in quite possibly spectacular fashion.

Kevin Holland and Khamzat Chimaev got into a brawl before Thursday’s scheduled UFC 279 press conference, causing a blur of commotion that forced Dana White and Co. to cancel the event. As the MMA gods surely planned all along, the pair will face one another in a rare five-round non-title co-main event.

Where: UFC 279 takes place at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada. The venue is the preferred destination for UFC fights in Nevada, seating 20,000 fans.

When: Sat., September 10, 2022. Early prelims begin at 6:15 p.m. ET, the undercard starts at 8 p.m., and the PPV-only main card begins at 10 p.m.

How to Watch: The early preliminary bouts will air on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+. The traditional undercard is set to air on ESPN/ESPN+, with the main card running exclusively on ESPN+ PPV.

UFC 279 Card & FanDuel Betting Odds Guide

We’ve already discussed how to read lines, so you have a sense of the different kinds of bets to place in MMA. Now, it’s time to add some context for Saturday’s card to assist in making your own betting picks for the event.

UFC 279 Main Card Odds

Odds can change over time. Visit FanDuel Sportsbook for the latest figures.

Welterweight: Nate Diaz (+120) vs Tony Ferguson (-154)
Catchweight (180 lbs.): Kevin Holland (+350) vs Khamzat Chimaev (-520)
Catchweight (180 lbs.): Li Jingliang (+122) vs Daniel Rodriguez (-150)
Catchweight (140 lbs.): Irene Aldana (-186) vs Macy Chiasson (+144)
Light Heavyweight: Johnny Walker (+152) vs Ion Cutelaba (-196)

Main Card Betting Analysis

  • Irene Aldana is undefeated in catchweight fights, going 4-0 as a betting favorite.
  • Tony Ferguson went from an underdog against Jingliang (+250) to a slight favorite against Diaz.
  • Diaz hasn’t been a betting favorite since 2013 against Josh Thomson, proving his penchant for sheer unpredictability yet again.

UFC 279 Prelim Card Odds

Featherweight: Hakeem Dawodu (-225) vs. Julian Erosa (+172)
Catchweight (220 lbs.): Jailton Almeida (-850) vs. Anton Turkalj (+500)
Middleweight: Denis Tiuliulin (+108) vs. Jamie Pickett (-138)
Heavyweight: Jake Collier (-430) vs. Chris Barnett (+300)

Prelim Betting Analysis

  • Chris Barnett has been the underdog in his three UFC fights, earning one win against Gian Villante.
  • Hakeem Dawodu is undefeated when landing over 50% of his shots to the body, a tactic he’s likely to utilize against Erosa.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BpfC9-BAUww

UFC 279 Early Prelim Odds

Featherweight: Norma Dumont (-400) vs. Danyelle Wolf (+285)
Bantamweight: Chad Anheliger (+140) vs. Alateng Heili (-180)
Strawweight: Melissa Martinez (-178) vs. Elise Reed (+138)
Welterweight: Darian Weeks (-130) vs. Yohan Lainesse (+102)

Early Prelim Betting Analysis

  • Danyelle Wolf is a three-time amateur USA Boxing National Champion in the welterweight division (152 lbs.) The fight against Dumont is her first in the UFC after making her MMA debut in Dana White’s Contender Series.
  • “Super Melly” Melissa Martinez makes her UFC debut against Elise Reed. The undefeated (7-0) strawweight has been the betting favorite in all her professional bouts, including UFC 279.

Boardroom UFC 279 Betting Disclaimer

Boardroom’s editorial staff does not predict the outcomes of fights for readers, so the information in this column shall not be considered betting advice. We provide tools a bettor can choose to consult in order to form a better understanding of the types of available bets, odds, and relevant facts before making wagers based on their judgment. All bettors assume their own risk.

The current odds listed within this article are subject to change over time. Odds reflected in this piece may not be the final odds before fight night and can be verified by visiting FanDuel Sportsbook.

Historic fight odds data comes via Best Fight Odds.

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