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Stephen Thompson vs. Kevin Holland Odds, Props & Prediction: UFC Orlando

Last Updated: December 3, 2022
How will the aging Stephen Thompson fair against Kevin Holland at UFC Orlando? Our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook assess the odds.

The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns this weekend from a week’s hiatus, headed to sunny Florida for UFC on ESPN 42, aka UFC Orlando. Shining on the main event marquee is a welterweight showdown between Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson and Kevin Holland, both of whom have shown a passion for modeling their MMA styles as closely as possible to traditional ninjas.

At 39 years old, Wonderboy is entering the back end of his career. Six years ago, his unique Kempo style threw opponents off of their games as his feet stood far apart and he sat in his stance with his hands held low. The irregular posture allowed for explosive kicks, counterattacks, and a takedown defense that culminated in a seven-fight win streak in the division and a nightmare of a puzzle to solve for his UFC counterparts. After he lost his last two fights against Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns last year, MMA enthusiasts have begun to wonder how many elite, karate-style performances Thompson has left and if mixed martial arts has evolved beyond his tactics.

Holland is a self-proclaimed “real-life ninja” in his own right. Yet, he boasts a polar opposite style from the patient, laser-accurate Thompson. Instead, he’s a loudmouth, forward-pressing power puncher who likes to keep the fight standing and isn’t afraid to let opponents know about it. After “retiring” from the sport last fall, coming back to MMA, and not writing off the possibility of it happening again, the former middleweight is in a weird spot in his career. Once known as a short-notice fixture on cards throughout the pandemic, Holland will now have a chance to reestablish himself as a pinpoint striking threat in a new weight class.

With that in mind, let’s look at the odds and major prop bets for Saturday’s Thompson vs. Holland main event welterweight clash at UFC Orlando, courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook. Plus, a big fight prediction.

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Thompson vs. Holland Fight Info

UFC ESPN 42 — Main Event Welterweight Bout
No. 6 Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson (16-6-1, 7 KOs, 1 Submission)
Kevin Holland (23-8-0 13 KOs, 6 Submissions)
Date: Saturday, December 3, 2022
Fight Time: The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET
Venue: Amway Center, Orlando, Florida, United States
Coverage: ESPN+

Thompson vs. Holland Odds to Win

All UFC ESPN 42 odds, lines, and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.


Stephen Thompson: +122
Kevin Holland: -156

UFC ESPN 42 Thompson vs. Holland Prop Bets

Method of Victory

Thompson by:

KO/TKO: +330
Points: +390
Submission: +2800

Holland by:

KO/TKO: +170
Points: +400
Submission: +750

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Yes: +166
No: -220

Over/Under Total Rounds

OVER 4.5: +136
UNDER 4.5: -174

Thomspon vs. Holland Prediction

UFC ESPN 42 Thompson vs. Holland prediction percentages courtesy of Tapology Fight Predictions.

  • Projected winner: Kevin Holland (65%)
  • Projected method of victory: KO/TKO (53%)

MMA fans are predicting a big knockout for Holland against the aging Wonderboy. Neither combatant is the type of fighter to initiate takedowns, however I expect both men to undergo a lengthy feeling-out process to gauge distance, which could result in many clinch exchanges against the cage. Holland’s size and six-inch reach advantage could be too much for the aging Thompson at this stage of the game.

After a long battle of figuring out his distance and timing, I anticipate Holland scoring a late finish that gets his career back on track.

Thompson vs. Holland Prediction: I’m taking Holland by a late KO/TKO (+170)

UFC ESPN 42 Betting Trends & Stats

  • Stephen Thompson was defeated by Belal Muhammad via unanimous decision in his most recent fight on December 18, 2021.
  • Kevin Holland was defeated by Khamzat Chimaev by submission in his most recent fight on September 10, 2022.
  • Thompson averages 3.90 significant strikes landed per minute with a 43% accuracy rate.
  • Holland averages 3.85 significant strikes landed per minute with a 54% accuracy rate.
  • Thompson averages 2.81 significant strikes absorbed per minute with a 56% defense rate.
  • Holland averages 2.38 significant strikes absorbed per minute with a 55% defense rate.
  • Thompson has a 63% takedown defense rate.
  • Holland has a 50% takedown defense rate.

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