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Raiders vs. Lions Week 8: How Much Do Oddsmakers Really Like Detroit?

Last Updated: October 30, 2023

This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research.

To close out the Week 8 schedule, our friends at FanDuel have your Raiders vs. Lions prediction, as well as all the odds and props you need.

After an outstanding start to the season, the Detroit Lions were humbled last week by the Baltimore Ravens. Detroit will attempt to bounce back in a home Monday night clash with the Las Vegas Raiders — the first Monday night game in Detroit since 2018.

The Raiders also struggled mightily in Week 7, getting thumped 30-12 by the hapless Chicago Bears. However, Vegas is 3-4, so they’re far from out of playoff contention, especially if they can get a victory tonight.

Oddsmakers have installed Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite, per the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. We should be in for a good amount of offense as the total is at 46.5. For reference, that over/under would tie for the third-highest total for the upcoming Week 9.

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Raiders vs. Lions Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

  • Spread: Lions -7.5 (-105)
  • Total: 46.5
  • Moneyline: Lions -370 | Raiders +295

Raiders vs. Lions Matchup Analysis

Pretty much any way you slice it, this is a lopsided matchup.

Obviously, the 7.5-point spread is one way to gauge it. Point differential — Vegas is -49 while Detroit is +23 (even with the 32-point loss last week) — also skews heavily toward Detroit. numberFire’s nERD-based power ratings have the Lions slotted fifth while the Raiders are next to last.

Despite a not-that-bad 3-4 record, the Raiders don’t have much going for them, although they will get Jimmy Garoppolo back from injury. According to numberFire’s schedule-adjusted metrics, Las Vegas ranks 31st in defense and 25th in offense. They’re dead last in rushing offense and check in next to last in run D. Their pass defense isn’t much better (26th).

Prior to getting thrashed last week in Baltimore, the Lions had been on cruise control, starting 5-1 and ripping off four straight wins by at least 14 points. While the Lions’ D is improved this year compared to last year, Detroit is still carried by its offense — an attack numberFire’s metrics rank fourth-best, spearheaded by a second-ranked passing game. Defensively, the Lions are a middle-of-the-pack unit, ranking 18th.

The public is backing the Lions tonight, with 86% of the money and 79% of the bets coming in on Detroit to cover as 7.5-point favorites.

Raiders vs. Lions Best Bets

Over 46.5 (-115)

There will be a lot of offensive talent on the field tonight, and when you combine that with neither defense being all that great, I think we get enough points for the over to hit.

Jared Goff has noteworthy home/road splits, performing like an elite passer at home this season — racking up a 113.3 rating and 8.88 adjusted yards per attempt at Ford Field. He had similar splits a year ago, recording 23 of his 29 passing tuddies at home. He has a great chance to put up big numbers against this Raiders D.

Vegas’ defense is bad. As we just laid out, they struggle against both the run and the pass. The Raiders haven’t faced that many good offenses, either. They’ve played just two games against an offense currently ranked in the top 18 by numberFire’s metrics. In those two games, they permitted 38 points to the Buffalo Bills and 24 points to the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Raiders’ offense should have some success, too.

While Garoppolo has struggled overall in 2023, it’s been a funky season for him and the Raiders’ offense due to injuries. Jimmy G has missed two games while Jakobi Meyers has been dinged up, as well. When Vegas has all its pieces healthy, which is the case tonight, they’ve got a good skill group around Jimmy G.

Detroit’s D was steamrolled by the Ravens last week. I’m not expecting a repeat of that showing, but Detroit’s defense has surrendered at least 20 points in five of seven outings.

numberFire’s model projects a 30.4-17.4 win for Detroit — a total of 47.8 points.

Michael Mayer Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-128)

Michael Mayer has been coming on of late. He’s played at least 66% of the snaps in three straight contests and has posted 39, 75 and 13 receiving yards in those games — with the 13-yard effort coming with Brian Hoyer under center.

The Lions are a pretty dope matchup for tight ends. On the year, they’ve given up the fourth-most targets per game (8.3) to the position along with the fifth-most yards per game.

Mark Andrews just torched the Lions’ D for 63 yards and a pair of scores a week ago, and the expected negative game script for Vegas should help Mayer’s volume.

numberFire projects Mayer for 2.9 catches and 30.5 yards.

Riley Patterson Over 7.5 Kicking Points (+105)

Riley Patterson should get a good amount of action tonight with the Lions implied to score 27.0 points.

Patterson hasn’t missed an indoor kick in his career, going 34 of 34 on extra points and 21 for 21 in field goals in dome/retractable roof games. Tossing aside the blowout loss at the Ravens where he didn’t attempt a kick, Patterson has scored at least eight points in three of his last four games.

Taking on a Vegas D that has struggled all year and just gave up a 30 spot to Tyson Bagent and the Bears, the Lions’ offense should move the ball well and potentially set up Patterson for a few kicks as long as Detroit doesn’t turn every foray into Raiders’ territory into a touchdown.

— Austan Kas

Raiders vs. Lions Prediction: NFL Week 8

The numberFire projections model gives the Lions a great chance of winning at 85.8% against Las Vegas.

A spread of 7.5 points and a total of 46.5 implies a final score of approximately 27-19.5.

Week 8 Raiders vs. Lions prediction via numberFire projection model

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