This article originally appeared at FanDuel Research.
Lock in for Raiders vs. Jets on Sunday Night Football with the latest odds, matchup analysis, and betting insights from our friends at FanDuel.
The New York Jets against the Las Vegas Raiders isn’t exactly the dazzling Sunday Night Football matchup that most of us hope for. The Jets (4-4) come off a brutal 27-6 loss against the Los Angeles Chargers, which took place on Monday Night Football. Yay, more New York primetime football!
Fortunately, the Raiders (4-5) add an intriguing storyline to the matchup. After firing coach Josh McDaniels and hiring interim coach Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas had their best performance of the season in Week 9 with a 30-6 win against the New York Giants. Will the Raiders roll over another squad from the Big Apple?
Despite both teams lingering around .500, I can’t deny there are some interesting aspects for this clash. New York still has an outside shot of making the playoffs (+300) with a projected win total of 7.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL win total odds.
Meanwhile, the Raiders could become a fun story with more success — similar to the 2021 team led by interim coach Rich Bisaccia. Is Las Vegas better at selecting interim coaches than hiring a full-time head honcho? It certainly seems that way after the last few seasons.
The Jets-Raiders may not have the heavy stakes we all covet, but there are still intriguing lines available. Here are FanDuel’s NFL odds for the matchup, followed by a breakdown and best bet for the SNF clash.
Raiders vs. Jets Week 10 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline
- Spread: Jets -1 (-104)
- Total: 36.5
- Jets: -110
- Raiders: -106
Jets vs. Raiders Week 10 Matchup Analysis
As previously mentioned, the Jets and Raiders are no world-beaters. This won’t be a matchup between Super Bowl contenders — something we all crave. However, this should be a competitive game.
As the 36.5 total suggests, points could be a rarity. According to numberFire’s adjusted ratings, New York has the 3rd-worst offense in the NFL and Las Vegas has the 10th-worst. The Jets’ also have the seventh-best adjusted defense rating, further aiding the idea of a low-scoring game.
While the Raiders have numberFire’s sixth-worst defense, the secondary has been decent with the 14th-best mark schedule-adjusted pass defense. As expected, Zach Wilson‘s struggles from last season have continued as he has -0.37 expected points added per drop back (EPA/DB). It’s only gotten worse too; Wilson posted -0.49 EPA/DB over his previous two games.
Las Vegas’ run defense is extremely susceptible, though, as they have the second-worst unit in adjusted run defense. Who has been one of the few bright spots of the Jets’ offense? Breece Hall without a doubt. After averaging only 8 carries per game over the first 4 contests, the second-year running back has totaled 15.5 carries per game in the previous 4 games.
Giving Hall the rock seems like a no-brainer with his 221 yards after contact (sixth-best). After totaling 52.9 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) over Week 4 and Week 5, Hall had -16.0 RYOE over his previous three games. The Raiders’ weak run defense could be the perfect opportunity to get back on track, though. Las Vegas holds the third-worst mark with 206.5 RYOE allowed this season.
A solid performance from Wilson also has a glimmer of hope with the Raiders’ starting cornerback duo of Nate Hobbs (ankle) and Marcus Peters (knee) both listed as questionable for Sunday’s showdown.
New York has a solid chance of going over their projected total of 17.5 points, but what about Las Vegas? Let’s look at the other side of the ball.
The Jets have a good defense; that’s the only thing that’s kept them relevant since the 2022 season. The pass defense, in particular, has been exceptional with cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, who was named Pro Football Focus’ highest graded cornerback this week.
New York’s schedule-adjusted pass defense ranks 5th, but the run defense is numberFire’s 15th-worst unit and ranks 22nd in rushing yards allowed per carry (4.3). After finishing 7th in rushing yards per carry last season, the Raiders have the 2nd-worst average at 3.2 rushing yards per attempt.
Even in last week’s 30-6 win, Las Vegas averaged only 3.7 yards per carry. Josh Jacobs managed to record his highest yard total of the season at 98 rushing yards, but that was thanks to a large workload (26 carries). Jacobs still holds underwhelming stats such as -8.9 RYOE.
Finding success on the ground could be even more difficult with three starters on the offensive line questionable: Kolton Miller, Greg Van Roten, and Thayer Munford. Munford was the only lineman absent in Week 9. If the Raiders have even more starters out, Jacobs could have another long day.
Las Vegas’ success could come down to Aidan O’Connell, who had 0.34 EPA/DB and his average depth of target rose to 7.9 (6.3 in from Week 1 to Week 8). Will O’Connell perform well in his third career start?
With that said, it’s time to make my pick. What could be the best bet for the Jets-Raiders?
Raiders vs. Jets Best Bet: NFL Week 10
Jets -1 (-104)
This game could easily go either way — hence the one-point spread. The line has steadily moved in the Raiders’ favor. It’s easy to see why; everything seems just peachy in Las Vegas following Week 9’s dominant win. Plus, the Jets come off their worst showing of the year. New York football and primetime never mix, as well.
Since 2020, the Jets are 1-5 in primetime games. The Raiders haven’t been any better with a 1-5 record in primetime games since last season. Something has to give. Who will finally win one under the lights?
I’m going to go against the grain for this game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Las Vegas was a slight favorite by the time this kicks off. New York’s defense should be the best unit on the field — by a significant margin.
Even in Week 9’s 27-6 loss, the Jets held the Chargers to only 191 yards. It was a comedy of errors on offense that led to the loss (three fumbles).
The Raiders are 22nd in takeaways per game, possibly aiding New York’s turnover woes. Plus, I have a hard time seeing Las Vegas have much success on offense. Jacobs and the run game have struggled, and the Jets feature one of the best secondaries in the league.
Ultimately, New York’s offense should be able to produce enough to squeak by with a win. The Raiders’ run defense has been putrid, presenting Hall with an opportunity to go off.
— Riley Thomas
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