Your curated list of wagers for Week 6 of the NFL season, from moneylines and player props to overlooked underdogs.
Bad luck has mostly plagued our season through the first month and change, but having dodged that last week, we were able to craft what should be an expected 3-1 week. The only loss, unfortunately, was our Baltimore Ravens -3 spread — devotees will note they only won by two — but, hey what can ya do?
Let’s get right into our Week 6 NFL best bets, because there’s value to be had out there.
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NFL Week 6 Best Bets Overview 2022
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best Over/Under Bet of Week 6
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
- Over/Under: 53.5
Woah, boy. Look no further than Kansas City for what is shaping up to be the most enthralling game on the entire schedule.
Of course, these two AFC heavyweights duked it out in an absolute classic the last time they met — the Divisional Round of last year’s postseason — which saw the Chiefs narrowly escape after a 42-36 overtime thriller. Patrick Mahomes and his usual theatrics were the main reason why.
Since Mahomes and counterpart Josh Allen entered the league, an exciting showdown has typically been the result whenever the Bills and Chiefs square off.
Mahomes, for instance, holds a sparkling 108.1 passer rating in the four matchups (including playoffs) between them, even completing more than 70 percent of his throws while connecting on 10 touchdowns compared to just two picks. He’s compiled exactly 1,200 yards as well.
Not to be outdone, Allen has also enjoyed glaring success when they get together. He’s posted a 105.1 passer rating opposite the Chiefs and registered 11 touchdowns versus two INTs. Additionally, his rushing prowess has been on display, gobbling up 257 yards on the ground on 37 attempts.
The stage is set for yet another offensive explosion between the pair, as both powerhouses are coming in hot. Notably, these are the two highest-scoring squads in the NFL, being the only teams to be averaging more than 30 points per game. Considering they’ve combined for more than 60 points on average in their meetings, it’s actually a bit perplexing that this over/under of 53.5 isn’t more inflated.
Oh well, that’s something we’ll look to capitalize on. Yes, the Bills have also allowed the fewest points in all of football thus far, but given the opponent, we know that tendency won’t continue. Mahomes and Co. have averaged 31.5 points in these meetings, and even finishing below that benchmark here can still be useful.
No matter who wins, it’s going to take a Herculean performance in order to emerge victorious. It can’t be emphasized enough how in sync both offenses are right now, and given the distinct history between the two sides, I don’t see either one suddenly bowing out any time soon.
Normally, it isn’t recommended to buy more than a half or full point on a total. In this case, though, I am expending a little more cash for 1.5 points based on my confidence that this will at least go into the 50’s. Having the number at 52 shields us in case there is a 31-21/28-24 final.
Pick: OVER 52 (-145)
Best Point Spread Bet of Week 6
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
- Spread: Jaguars +2.5/Colts -2.5
While it may only be Week 6, this has to be do-or-die time for the Colts now, right?
They’ve been slogging along up to this point after entering 2022 as the AFC South favorites, carrying an unimpressive 2-2-1 record into their second and final meeting of the season with the Jaguars.
And this will either be a crushing or statement-making outcome. Either get swept by lowly Jacksonville and lose to a bottom-feeder division rival for the third straight time — remember that it was the Jags who embarrassingly ended their season last year by beating them in Week 18 as 14.5-point underdogs — or get this rather large monkey off their back and move on.
So, who exactly are these Indianapolis Colts? Well, the defense has still been a positive, ranking in the top 10 in the NFL in both fewest points (18.8) and fewest yards allowed (312.6). The problem is that they’re not registering as many takeaways, however, explaining why they have the second-worst turnover differential in the league (-6). Last year, Indy was actually tied for the best such mark (+14) and their D boasted the second-most takeaways (33).
That is definitely an area I see them improving as the next several weeks roll by.
The Indy offense, though, has not looked too hot. Despite obtaining the services of a future Hall of Fame (oh, yes he is!) QB in Matt Ryan as an intended upgrade from Carson Wentz, Frank Reich’s team has put up the fewest points thus far of all 32 clubs. Ryan is a big reason why, as he is shockingly one of eight signal-callers to be holding a sub-80.0 passer rating. That’s not the Matt Ryan we’ve grown accustomed to!
In the last matchup opposite the Jaguars a handful of weeks ago, Ryan wasn’t good that afternoon, either, but he was notably without his two top wideouts in the effort, Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce. Both players will be present Sunday, and that undoubtedly makes a huge difference.
Yes, workhorse back Jonathan Taylor (ankle) is on the sidelines these days for the foreseeable future, but at the very least, the Colts still have enough ammo to at scratch out some points with a healthy receiving corps
At the same time, their defense is capable of shackling Trevor Lawrence, who has seemingly hit a wall the last two weeks. So, too, has his most-frequented wide receiver from the last matchup with the Colts, free agent acquisition Christian Kirk. A road game at Lucas Oil Stadium doesn’t just suddenly reignite those sparks against what is one of the better defensive units around. Plus, having seen the Jags recently, they’ll be better prepared in shutting them down.
Does this small spread look like a trap bet? Of course it does. But there are many of these in any given season and the trick is to be ultra-selective when evaluating such scenarios.
In this instance, the Colts are the better team and might finally be on the way up after last week’s victory.
Pick: COLTS -2.5 (-105)
Best Teaser Bet (2 games, 7 points) of Week 6
Just like last week, no need to overthink matters when you are comfortable making two outright calls on a game outcome.
For our Week 6 teaser, we begin with the Ravens traveling to MetLife Stadium for a road battle with the (overachieving) Giants. Notice the term “overachieving.”
Look, Big Blue definitely deserves a lot of credit for their beginning to the campaign. Saquon Barkley is a legitimate elite tailback (proving that it is OK to draft a running back early in the first round!) and there is unquestionably a huge upgrade in coaching with Brian Daboll. But obviously, there’s no way they maintain that .800 winning percentage. Regression will be coming and why not against a surging Baltimore group that is probably one of the best teams in the NFL?
The Ravens made a huge statement on Sunday Night Football last week in taking down the Bengals after getting walloped by them in both meetings last year. Momentum is very important in pro sports and with that victory a week ago, the Ravens are flying high at the moment. Most importantly, they’re the better club.
If we make it to the second leg, we’ll need a considerably easier result in the form of a Rams win against the dysfunctional Panthers. Things are looking pretty bleak.
Their head coach Matt Rhule is now gone, quarterback Baker Mayfield is out injured, and the face of the franchise, Christian McCaffrey, is publicly being shopped around. Yeah, uh, Carolina is in shambles right now and I’m not sure how that can possibly translate to an upset victory on the road against the defending champs.
P.J. Walker will get the nod behind center, and while he is actually 2-0 as a starting quarterback, don’t hold your breath on that mark improving to 3-0. Los Angeles is coming off two ugly losses and won’t relinquish the opportunity to beat down a bottom feeder and get back on track.
Best Prop Bet for Week 6
- Dalvin Cook Over/Under 17.5 Rushing Attempts
When evaluating a player prop wager, a bettor needs to determine if the game script can be realized out of the get go.
For this Vikings-Dolphins clash, its pretty simple to gauge who will be in control. Minnesota is comfortably in first place in the NFC Norris division (forever known as such thanks to Chris Berman) thanks to a great stretch of football to commence their campaign. They’ll now be visiting a team that is deploying a third-string QB.
As a result, the Vikings should be ahead most of the way, and with that plot comes plenty of designed rushing plays. Enter Dalvin Cook, who is one of the few true workhorse running backs around the league capable of handling a big load.
That’s usually the case anyway. Cook has received the rock 17 times in all but one of the Vikings’ five games this year — and that one instance where he did not was from exiting early due to injury
The 2017 second-round draft pick is a fixture among the league leaders in rush attempts per game. Be aware also that the one potential bugaboo, Alexander Mattison (who is awesome and will be a star wherever he signs next year), is playing through a shoulder ailment, hence the questionable tag assigned to him.
Hopefully that ensures Mattison indeed doesn’t steal a sizable amount of work from the man playing in front of him, therefore meaning Cook should, at the very least, see his usual involvement. So long as that is the case, he’ll decisively top this tally.
Pick: OVER 17.5 Rush Attempts (-120)
NFL Best Bets Record for the 2022 Season
- Over/Unders: “2-3”
- Spreads: “2-3”
- Teasers: “2-1-1”
- Props: “1-3”
- Overall Record*: “7-10-1,” -6.27 units
*Each over/under is graded to win 2 units; everything else for 1 unit
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