Your curated list of wagers for Week 15 of the NFL season, from moneylines and player props to overlooked underdogs.
Bad weeks are never fun, especially when they’re the result of uncontrollable outside factors. Once again, as even alluded to prior to last week’s games, an unfortunate injury struck us when Rhamondre Stevenson went down for the count (twice) on Monday Night Football.
And what about the Cowboys just needing to win by more than four at home against one of pro football’s worst teams this century? Yeah, shockingly, they won by four.
A fresh batch of games — including the return of Saturday NFL action! — is upon us, so let’s trek to our Week 15 best bets.
NFL Week 15 Best Bets Overview 2022
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best Over/Under Bet of Week 15
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
- Over/Under: 43.5
Welcome to the NFL, Desmond Ridder. Your first task? Figuring out an upper echelon defense while trying to survive in one of the most hostile places in sports.
Yeah, erm, um, good luck with that, rook.
Such is the premise for betting the second 2022 meeting of this eternal NFC South rivalry: Ridder and his ruining oncoming.
A third-round pick of this past April’s draft, the Cincinnati product will finally be getting his first action in the big leagues after Marcus Mariota had received every snap in the first 13 ballgames. But with Mariota out of the picture now after suffering a knee injury, Ridder gets his chance to impress and maybe even keep his club’s dangling playoff hopes alive.
Unfortunately for him, however, he’s seeing a stout Saints D at the wrong time. For most of the campaign, New Orleans has been at less than full health on this side of the ball but that’s about to change with standout corner Marshon Lattimore (abdomen) nearing a return to the field.
Oh sure, the Saints are yielding a middle-of-the-pack 22.8 points per game, but as they’ve gotten healthier in recent weeks, that number has been dropping considerably. In fact, five of the last six contests have seen New Orleans keep the opposition to 20 or fewer points, markedly doing so versus teams like the Rams (pre-Matthew Stafford injury), 49ers (pre-Jimmy Garoppolo injury) and Buccaneers.
The Saints have been best against the pass, yielding the 10th-fewest yards through the air per game (203.2). Now they’re on the verge of reinserting another stud like Lattimore back into the lineup?
OK, all the more reason to doubt Ridder, who didn’t exactly jump off page or anything during his lone professional reps in the preseason. Across three games, he amassed 431 yards on 34-of-56 passing for three touchdowns and a pair of picks.
As a Bearcat, Ridder ran pretty frequently, which is something to look out for throughout his debut. The Saints defense, though, oozes playmakers that can shackle what he offers on the ground.
Either way, Atlanta is expected to push forward with a rush attack that benefits an under wager. Only one team in the league (Bears) has run more often than the Falcons’ tendency of taking it to the ground a whopping 56 percent of the time.
Now what about the other matchup involved here? Well, as we all know, Saints head coach Dennis Allen continues to cap what his offense can do by sticking with Andy Dalton as his starting quarterback instead of going back to (a healthy) Jameis Winston. In the last six games — all started by the Red Rifle — New Orleans has cranked out just 15 points on average.
On defense, Atlanta doesn’t have much to brag about but an assignment dealing with Dalton can keep things from getting out of hand. It’s not like this is one of those Drew Brees–Matt Ryan showdowns that would regularly light the scoreboard.
Being so close to the most important tally in over/unders — 45 — I’m opting to buy 1.5 points to be sheltered in a 24-21 score.
The Pick: UNDER 45 (-140)
Best Point Spread Bet of Week 15
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers
- Spread: Titans +3/Chargers -3
This latter portion of the season always begins to separate the contenders from the pretenders. A glaring example of this could be on full display at SoFi Stadium.
What are the Chargers? A true contender, right? While they might perennially be one of the most mercurial teams in all of professional sports — not just football — it appears Justin Herbert and Co. have it all together right now after a statement-making victory last Sunday against Miami.
How about the Titans? Well, pretty clearly, they look to be headed in the wrong direction after getting blasted a week ago at home — by the Jacksonville Jaguars.
That extended their losing streak to three, in which they’ve been outscored 91-48.
A big reason for that is related to Tennessee’s current injury woes, as numerous key players will be on the sidelines for Week 15. In particular, the absences of Denico Autry (knee), Kristian Fulton (groin), Treylon Burks (concussion) and Amani Hooker (knee) represent notable blows to a club already reeling.
Even if they were healthy, I’m not sure what resistance the Titans could exhibit when their pass defense has been horrific. The 283.7 passing yards they allow each week ranks them dead last in the NFL.
That’s not a good sign when entering a matchup opposite a team that chucks it a to. Only the great Tom Brady has more pass attempts than Herbert this season.
The Titans, who sport one of the league’s premier ground games behind Derrick Henry, can possibly capitalize on a Chargers defensive unit that bleeds rushing yards to opponents. However, I don’t think that will be enough if Herbert is continually throwing it down their throat.
The Pick: CHARGERS -3 (-102)
Best Teaser Bet (4 team, 13 points) of Week 15
It’s always nice when an NFL slate contains a free bingo space for the 13-point teasers, and such will be the case this week with the Chiefs’ easy road date in Houston.
Wielding a 10-3 record and the most points scored in the league, Kansas City is still shooting for home-field advantage throughout the AFC side of the playoff bracket. The Texans, meanwhile, may be coming off a near-monumental-upset win against their in-state rivals, but the fact remains that they are abhorrent.
Yeah, uh, not a worry there, the Chiefs win.
Navigating the rest of this teaser may be a little bit more challenging. Fortunately, there appears to be a total worth including in the form of an unspectacular Kenny Pickett vs. Sam Darnold matchup. Opting for the under here means this game would have to soar past 50 points to lose, and considering that these are two of the nine clubs plating 20 points or fewer on the year, well, that should be a safe position. Both defenses are a pleasant sight, too.
If we make it to Sunday Night Football, we’d require the New York Football Giants to not get blasted by more than 17 points. Interestingly, they couldn’t make that happen last week against Philly, but that came opposite a much tougher adversary.
Here, the G-Men are getting a foe that doesn’t even really blow people out when they win. In fact, Washington hasn’t won a game by 17 points in more than two years.
An argument can be made anyway that both these NFC East rivals are evenly matched. Notably, the Giants and Commanders tied only two weeks ago.
Finally, we’re looking to this week’s Monday night affair, which is exhibiting early signs that it will be one of those “Frozen Tundra at Lambeau Field” deals.
Cold weather — as in temperatures below 20 degrees — is in the forecast… and maybe some snow as well.
One underrated wrinkle in the eventual-Hall-of-Fame career of Aaron Rodgers is that he manages well in these cold-environment predicaments. According to Yahoo, Rodgers holds a desirable 94.9 passer rating in seven regular season bouts at 20 degrees or colder.
In a must-win game for their postseason aspirations, the Packers should take care of business against a bare-bones Rams squad. Even if they somehow lose by a touchdown, this teaser will still sail true.
Best Prop Bet of Week 15
- Drake London Over/Under 3.5 Receptions
Dabbling in wide receiver props can be as simple as recognizing chemistry between a wide-out and his starting quarterback.
Yes, even when a rookie QB1 is making his NFL debut, as we already covered with Desmond Ridder in our over/under. But even in this uncommon scenario, there’s much to like as it relates to Drake London.
One, this is the clear-cut alpha dog in the Falcons passing game. Thusly, he’ll draw plenty of targets and only needs to top three catches for a victory in this wager.
Though Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier contain potential of garnering targets away from London, the rookie out of USC should still see enough looks that can take him well above the desired total.
The thought process there is that fellow freshmen Ridder and London have a relationship that stems off the football field, and with that in mind, you can count on Ridder to be watching the WR often.
In even London’s own words: “I came in here with him, built a relationship with him and just been grinding ever since and to see him finally get his shot is really, really cool to see, just to see that smile again.”
No question they’ll be on the same page.
Pick: OVER 3.5 Receptions (-128)
NFL Best Bets Record for the 2022 Season
- Over/Unders: 5-9
- Spreads: 5-5-1
- Teasers: 3-8-1
- Props: 8-9
- Overall Record*: 21-31-2, -22.5 units
*Each over/under is graded to win 2 units; everything else for 1 unit
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