Your curated list of wagers for Week 13 of the NFL season, from moneylines and player props to overlooked underdogs.
Fittingly, the first perfect meal of bets that this column supplied this season was (finally) dished out during Thanksgiving weekend. But no bettor should ever be content with one week. Let’s see if we can make it two in a row.
It’s time to turn our focus to our NFL Week 13 best bets.
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NFL Week 13 Best Bets Overview 2022
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best Over/Under Bet of Week 13
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
- Over/Under: 40.5
There are just specific names that exemplify “backup quarterback for life.” For example, Nathan Peterman, C.J. Beathard and Sean Mannion are three.
Feel comfortable about adding John Wolford to that list, if you haven’t already. Here’s another such figure that has little-to-no ceiling any time he takes the field, but with Matthew Stafford (neck) landing on injured reserve this week, Wolford has lucked his way into a fourth career start.
Comically, Wolford went 2-1 in the first three — including a postseason triumph in which he was benched after six passes — but that can probably be attributed more to Los Angeles sporting a quality defensive group. Wolford has only managed one TD within his 74 NFL throws.
So now let’s look at the situation Wolford will be in. The “defending” world champion Rams are a disaster right now, not only missing Stafford, but their top two wide-outs, Cooper Kupp (ankle) and Allen Robinson (foot), as well. The MVP of the defense, Aaron Donald (ankle), is out, too.
Now statistically, Seattle doesn’t rank highly on the defensive side of the ball — neither against the pass or the run — but with Wolford serving as the opposition, allow me to borrow a line from Tommy Lee Jones in The Fugitive:
The secondary of the Seahawks actually isn’t bad, led by standout rookie Tariq Woolen. Meanwhile, Quandre Diggs deserves some respect on his name, being a member of PFF’s top four graded safeties.
But can LA do its part in helping prevent a crooked number on the scoreboard? Well, the beauty of taking an under in a game in which one of the two starting QBs is Wolford is that we can survive one lofty team output — although that may not come to fruition anyway given the defense.
Despite missing Donald, the Rams still have a trusty group featuring established talent like Bobby Wagner and Jalen Ramsey that can help prevent things from getting out of hand. Donald will also still be on the sidelines to help keep his voice and flavor apart of this defensive play.
True, Geno Smith has enjoyed an absolutely sensational comeback year in surprisingly leading the Seahawks into playoff contention. Not only does Smith own the league’s second-best passer rating (107.9) — even ahead of Patrick Mahomes! — but he’s also positioned Seattle as a top-four scoring team, averaging a cool 26.5 points each week.
The Rams are capable of holding this NFC West rival below this mark. But even if they don’t really contain Smith, we can still be OK given the counterpart. Trust Wolford to be unimpressive once again.
The Pick: UNDER 41 (-118)
Best Spread Bet of Week 13
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings
- Spread: Jets +3/Vikings -3
Geez, the Vikings might be the most disrespected team that was ever 9-2. Surely this line should be a tad bit bigger.
The Jets, of course, are enjoying a revitalization and actually may secure the franchise’s first playoff berth in 12 years, which is the NFL’s longest active postseason drought. But at the moment, they’re led by a third-string quarterback, and this predicament would normally lead to a bit of larger spread for the home side.
Yes, Mike White did impress last week in throttling the Bears — even doing so in poor field conditions at MetLife Stadium. But battling the first-place Vikings in their stadium is a taller task and it’s one I don’t think White will emerge victorious in.
Firstly, the former fifth-round pick out of Western Kentucky will seemingly be in a nice position, squaring off with the defense that has allowed the most passing yards per game (276.1). However, that has more to do with Minnesota leading decisively in just about every contest, and thus requiring opponents to throw the ball more playing from behind.
The Jets are averaging 20.9 points on a weekly basis this season, a tally that’s actually gone down since explosive rookie tailback Breece Hall (knee) went down with a torn ACL. Across their last five games in the wake of Hall’s injury, New York has supplied 17.4 points per contest.
If they’re around there in this week’s matchup, I don’t see them pulling this one out. As good as the Jets are on the defensive side of the ball — and they are definitely one of the best there — that isn’t enough to top this Vikings offense.
This is a club that’s scored at least 23 points in all but three ballgames this year, and after producing a 33-point showing on Thanksgiving Night against a good Patriots D, it looks like they’re reigniting.
The contest emanating from Minnesota certainly can only aid Kirk Cousins. After all, the 11-year veteran has been significantly more consistent at U.S. Bank Stadium, where he’s forged a 100.7 passer rating and 10-2 TD/INT ratio in six games this season. Contrast that with the mostly harmless 76.2 rating and 7-7 TD/INT ratio Cousins has registered away from home.
No matter what, this showdown could come down to the battle of arguably the game’s best wide receiver, Justin Jefferson, facing off with maybe its best cornerback in Sauce Gardner. Given that the Jets don’t usually have a corner specifically assigned to one player, I see this being an opening and enabling Jefferson to craft one of his big outings.
The Pick: VIKINGS -3 (-104)
Best Teaser Bet (2 teams, 6 points) of Week 13
Certain wagers can sometimes feel icky. Just grotesque.
That will be anyone in the position of backing Deshaun Watson in his return from an 11-game suspension, following accusations of sexual misconduct from 26 different women.
If you do, however, choose to lean on the former No. 12 overall draft pick in a favorable situation, it could make sense. Financially, at least. Watson simply just has to beat the lowly Houston Texans — the only team he’s ever played for.
And it’s in his old home venue, where Watson has looked excellent throughout his career. En route to etching a dazzling 56-15 TD/INT ratio, Watson holds a lifetime 106.8 passer rating in 27 games at NRG Stadium. For comparison, that mark is presently better than all but two QBs.
We’ll latch the other half of our teaser opposite another NFL laughingstock, deploying the Ravens to win by three points or more against “Mr. Unlimited.”
Making this more ravishing to include is that Baltimore is the home team. Lamar Jackson has only lost three times at home dating back to the start of last season. In addition, Denver is winless on the road.
That sounds good to me. Factor in that the Broncos are averaging the fewest points per game (14.3) in more than 20 years and the result appears to be academic.
Best Prop Bet of Week 13
- Gus Edwards Over/Under 13.5 Carries
Wait, what? This prop is clearly way off.
Although he’s played in only three games the last two seasons due to injuries, it’s pretty evident that Gus Edwards is a legit No. 1 back in the mold of a Derrick Henry.
Sure, he might not be any semblance of a factor in the passing game but that doesn’t matter as it concerns this prop bet. We only care about his carry amount.
Everything in this oncoming Week 13 matchup creates a clear picture for a Ravens rushing attack. They’re obviously better than Denver and will likely be in control for the duration of the bout, enabling that patented rush-heavy game plan to be in full force. Cue runs for Edwards.
In fact, only five teams have ran a higher percentage of run plays this season than Baltimore (49.5 percent). And the deeper a Ravens lead lasts, the more we see of the bruising 27-year-old. If the AFC North leaders are winning decisively, why would they design more Lamar Jackson rushes?
They won’t, thus manufacturing more carries to Gus The Bus. Even if this game is close, that’s still fine, as we should anticipate a grind-it-out affair anyway because of the stout Broncos D. That, too, puts this bet in a desirable spot.
Look at Edwards’ usage as it is: 43 rushing attempts in his three games, with two of those outings seeing him log 16 apiece. He had 11 in that Thursday Night Football game against the Bucs but remember, that was Edwards’ second game back from a torn ACL — and on a short week. Here, he’s not being limited.
Edwards also evidently has full control of the Baltimore backfield after Kenyan Drake and Justice Hill combined for just three carries last week. The majority of non-Lamar totes going to Edwards should ensure he simply cruises past this number.
The Pick: OVER 13.5 Carries (-125)
NFL Best Bets Record for the 2022 Season
- Over/Unders: “5-7”
- Spreads: “4-4-1”
- Teasers: “3-6-1”
- Props: “8-7”
- Overall Record*: “20-24-2,” -12.61 units
*Each over/under is graded to win 2 units; everything else for 1 unit
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