Your curated list of wagers for Week 11 of the NFL season, from moneylines and player props to overlooked underdogs.
Last week presented about as disappointing a “2-2” week as there can be. Reminder to sportsbooks that bets should be voided if a starting quarterback change (i.e. your Indianapolis Colts) is made upon kickoff without an announcement being made.
With just one week before Thanksgiving (already?!), let’s attempt to feast on one more slate of NFL best bets for Week 11.
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NFL Week 11 Best Bets Overview 2022
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best Over/Under Bet of Week 11
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens
- Over/Under: 41.5
A familiar foe returns to M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday to reignite what was shaping up to be a classic NFL rivalry. The road to get here, though, involved some twists and turns for this visiting player.
After leading Cleveland only a couple of years ago to their second postseason appearance this century — not to mention securing their first playoff win in over a quarter-century — Baker Mayfield looked like he’d be the franchise QB for a decade to come. Alas, things changed drastically.
The Browns suddenly had feelings for someone else to play quarterback, Deshaun Watson, ultimately causing Mayfield to be jettisoned to Carolina. An injury soon shrunk him to backup status behind P.J. Walker, but after the latter succumbed to an ankle injury last week, Mayfield returns to the saddle to resume a rivalry with someone who was also taken in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft.
That’s obviously Lamar Jackson, the 32nd pick of the draft. Mayfield, meanwhile, went first overall, and from that point on, the two first-round book-ends of ‘18 seemed poised to always be connected. They’re both Heisman Trophy winners, too.
Yet it’s Jackson enjoying the far more notable success. The former Louisville Cardinal is not only stitching together another nice season, he’s got his Ravens well-positioned in the standings. Such is a result of Jackson again leading Baltimore to a top-10 ranking in total points scored.
True, the AFC North leaders are a little bit banged up on the offensive side of the ball but it appears like Mark Andrews (hamstring, knee) and Gus Edwards (hamstring) will both be active Sunday.
Thusly, I know the Ravens will bring it — like they typically do when at least relatively healthy. What I’m gunning for is a revitalization from Mayfield, who absolutely has to perform competently if he wants to regain the starting gig back for good even when Walker can return.
The history of Mayfield-Lamar matchups in the NFL perhaps helps indicate another high-scoring barnburner is on the way. This will be their eighth meeting as opposing starting QBs, and in the previous seven, there was an average of 52.3 points scored. Furthermore, only once did the final outcome lead to a total less than 44 — this next meeting carries the handsomely-generous over/under of 41.5.
To be protected in the event of 24-17/27–14-type climax, I suggest buying a half-point.
The Pick: OVER 41 (-116)
Best Point Spread Bet of Week 11
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers
- Spread: Titans +3.5/Packers -3.5
Having now crossed the halfway point of the season, bettors have a pretty concrete idea as to what most teams are and where they’re going. Exceptions can be made, however, like with the pair of contenders set to duke it out on Thursday Night Football this week.
The Titans come into Green Bay at 6-3 and with some cushion on their first-place standing in the AFC South. Meanwhile, the Packers clock in with an uncharacteristic 4-6 mark and are sitting outside of a playoff berth. Well beyond first glance, these two scenarios are highly peculiar.
One, the Pack have been in this sort of hole before. And what does Aaron Rodgers do every time? Ascend out of it. Only twice before has Green Bay amassed a losing record with Rodgers as its full-time QB1 — and one of those instances came in his very first year as the starter.
While it may be true that this isn’t the same juggernaut offense that it was when Davante Adams was donning the Green and Gold, Rodgers is still making do with what he has. He ranks in the top 10 in both passing yards and touchdowns, after all.
Most tempting about this spot for the four-time MVP is that it’s a Thursday Night Football affair at home. As great as Rodgers usually is, he typically steps it up even more at Lambeau, where he’s an indestructible 89-21-1. If you’re wondering, that’s an .809 win percentage.
In addition, he might be deserving of a “Mr. Thursday Night” moniker based on his success when kicking the week off. Rodgers is 11-5 in Thursday matchups while chiseling a sterling a 106.5 passer rating. He’s recorded 35 touchdowns compared to only five picks on this day.
So how else can we get to the finish line with a Packer ‘W’ cashing for us besides riding the usual Rodgers gem? Blistering conditions residing within the frozen tundra can certainly play a role, as cold weather is expected that could feel like near-single-digit temperatures in the air.
That figures to make a significant difference as it concerns the other quarterback here. Ryan Tannehill — who spent his first seven pro seasons in the warmth of Miami — has struggled mightily when the cold takes over, posting a poor 74.8 passer rating across his 10 regular season starts that feature temperatures no higher than 40 degrees. He’s even logged nearly as many INTs (11) as touchdowns (13).
As it is, Tennessee is very dependent on its workhorse tailback Derrick Henry and that will be the main storyline to monitor opposite a Packers D that hasn’t fared too well against the run this season. Given Tannehill’s erratic track record when playing in these conditions, however, things may work out differently if Green Bay is zoning in on minimizing the damage Henry can do between the tackles.
As long as the Pack are forcing Tannehill to beat them, I foresee a good-enough performance limiting what they do on the ground. Such a strategy can ensure Rodgers’ work prevails above all. Just buy that half-point and get yourself on the most significant number in betting spreads.
THE PICK: PACKERS -3 (-134)
Best Teaser Bet (4 selections, 13 points) of Week 11
Looks like we’ll be a bit more invested in Baker Mayfield this week than beyond the weekly over/under bet. Here, we need him to simply guide the Panthers to a loss by less than 27 points (or, somehow, a win).
As alluded to earlier, this seems like a prime opportunity to catch Mayfield in at least a decent spot considering he’s playing for his job; not to mention to snuff out the utter embarrassment of holding P.J. Walker’s clipboard when he was a big tv (commercial) star as recent as last year. I’ll trust Mayfield to at least be OK, as that’s all it will take to avoid a blowout.
Step two brings us to Minnesota, where the Vikings — despite having the better record past the halfway point of the season — are fairly surprising home underdogs. Folks, they’re 8-1 and shouldn’t be doubted. This is a legit quality football team that will have the benefit of being able to lose by a pair of touchdowns. Yeah, gotta include them.
And if we make it to the end on Sunday Night Football, we’ll shoot for two details in the latest Chiefs-Chargers collision. One is the over, a typical result when these two offenses square off. In fact, four of the first five matchups between Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert seamlessly sailed above 50 total points — this one just has to merely combine for 40 points.
Additionally, we’ll hope for a non-route. Again, tapping back into the history between the two star franchise quarterbacks, while the Chiefs are 4-1, they didn’t win any of those matchups by more than 17; our cushion to work with in depending on the Chargers. Also remember that with the injuries to JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) and Mecole Hardman (abdomen), Mahomes is now down two weapons in the passing game.
Best Prop Bet of Week 11
- Justin Herbert Over/Under 38.5 Pass Attempts
No matter the opponent, LA loves to pass, hence why they’ve dialed up more passing plays (43.1) per game than anyone else.
It’s not a bad strategy when Justin Herbert is your signal-caller. This has also been the go-to game plan in past battles with the Chiefs, especially last time out against this foe in Week 2 when the Oregon product went to the air 48 times.
Game script can be everything and that’s the beauty of deploying such a prop bet when the opponent is Kansas City. Once again, they’re at the top of the leaderboard in team scoring, and this longstanding tendency to crank out points encourages teams to throw in efforts of keeping up.
Plus, with Keenan Allen (hamstring) and Mike Williams (ankle) both back from injuries this week, that’s all the more reason to chuck the football quite often.
The Pick: OVER 38.5 Pass Attempts (-105)
NFL Best Bets Record for the 2022 Season
- Over/Unders: “4-6”
- Spreads: “4-3-1”
- Teasers: “2-5-1”
- Props: “6-6”
- Overall Record*: “16-20-2,” -11.6 units
*Each over/under is graded to win 2 units; everything else for 1 unit
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